Classical Gaussian processes and Kriging models are commonly based on stationary kernels, whereby correlations between observations depend exclusively on the relative distance between scattered data. While this assumption ensures analytical tractability, it limits the ability of Gaussian processes to represent heterogeneous correlation structures. In this work, we investigate variably scaled kernels as an effective tool for constructing non-stationary Gaussian processes by explicitly modifying the correlation structure of the data. Through a scaling function, variably scaled kernels alter the correlations between data and enable the modeling of targets exhibiting abrupt changes or discontinuities. We analyse the resulting predictive uncertainty via the variably scaled kernel power function and clarify the relationship between variably scaled kernels-based constructions and classical non-stationary kernels. Numerical experiments demonstrate that variably scaled kernels-based Gaussian processes yield improved reconstruction accuracy and provide uncertainty estimates that reflect the underlying structure of the data

Blind source separation (BSS) seeks to recover latent source signals from observed mixtures. Variational autoencoders (VAEs) offer a natural perspective for this problem: the latent variables can be interpreted as source components, the encoder can be viewed as a demixing mapping from observations to sources, and the decoder can be regarded as a remixing process from inferred sources back to observations. In this work, we propose AR-Flow VAE, a novel VAE-based framework for BSS in which each latent source is endowed with a parameter-adaptive autoregressive flow prior. This prior significantly enhances the flexibility of latent source modeling, enabling the framework to capture complex non-Gaussian behaviors and structured dependencies, such as temporal correlations, that are difficult to represent with conventional priors. In addition, the structured prior design assigns distinct priors to different latent dimensions, thereby encouraging the latent components to separate into different source signals under heterogeneous prior constraints. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed architecture for blind source separation. More importantly, this work provides a foundation for future investigations into the identifiability and interpretability of AR-Flow VAE.

We study the consistency of the $k$-nearest neighbor regressor under complex survey designs. While consistency results for this algorithm are well established for independent and identically distributed data, corresponding results for complex survey data are lacking. We show that the $k$-nearest neighbor regressor is consistent under regularity conditions on the sampling design and the distribution of the data. We derive lower bounds for the rate of convergence and show that these bounds exhibit the curse of dimensionality, as in the independent and identically distributed setting. Empirical studies based on simulated and real data illustrate our theoretical findings.

Understanding when learning is statistically possible yet computationally hard is a central challenge in high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate this question in the context of single- and multi-index models, classes of functions widely studied as benchmarks to probe the ability of machine learning methods to discover features in high-dimensional data. Our main contribution is to show that a Noise Sensitivity Exponent (NSE) - a simple quantity determined by the activation function - governs the existence and magnitude of statistical-to-computational gaps within a broad regime of these models. We first establish that, in single-index models with large additive noise, the onset of a computational bottleneck is fully characterized by the NSE. We then demonstrate that the same exponent controls a statistical-computational gap in the specialization transition of large separable multi-index models, where individual components become learnable. Finally, in hierarchical multi-index models, we show that the NSE governs the optimal computational rate in which different directions are sequentially learned. Taken together, our results identify the NSE as a unifying property linking noise robustness, computational hardness, and feature specialization in high-dimensional learning.

Option prices encode the market's collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter to rule out static arbitrage. Despite earlier recognition of their parity, the two had been studied in isolation for decades until the recent demand in implied volatility modeling rejuvenated such parity. This paper provides a systematic approach to build neural representations of option implied information. As a preliminary, we first revisit the explicit link between implied density and implied volatility through an alternative and minimalist lens, where implied volatility is viewed not as volatility but as a pointwise corrector mapping the Black-Scholes quasi-density into the implied risk-neutral density. Building on this perspective, we propose the neural representation that incorporates arbitrage constraints through the differentiable corrector. With an additive logistic model as the synthetic benchmark, extensive experiments reveal that deeper or wider network structures do not necessarily improve the model performance due to the nonlinearity of both arbitrage constraints and neural derivatives. By contrast, a shallow feedforward network with a single hidden layer and a specific activation effectively approximates implied density and implied volatility.

Recent advances in generative AI have led to increasingly realistic synthetic data, yet evaluation criteria remain focused on marginal distribution matching. While these diagnostics assess local realism, they provide limited insight into whether a generative model preserves the multivariate dependence structures governing downstream inference. We introduce covariance-level dependence fidelity as a practical criterion for evaluating whether a generative distribution preserves joint structure beyond univariate marginals. We establish three core results. First, distributions can match all univariate marginals exactly while exhibiting substantially different dependence structures, demonstrating marginal fidelity alone is insufficient. Second, dependence divergence induces quantitative instability in downstream inference, including sign reversals in regression coefficients despite identical marginal behavior. Third, explicit control of covariance-level dependence divergence ensures stable behavior for dependence-sensitive tasks such as principal component analysis. Synthetic constructions illustrate how dependence preservation failures lead to incorrect conclusions despite identical marginal distributions. These results highlight dependence fidelity as a useful diagnostic for evaluating generative models in dependence-sensitive downstream tasks, with implications for diffusion models and variational autoencoders. These guarantees apply specifically to procedures governed by covariance structure; tasks requiring higher-order dependence such as tail-event estimation require richer criteria.

Graph transformers are the state-of-the-art for learning from graph-structured data and are empirically known to avoid several pitfalls of message-passing architectures. However, there is limited theoretical analysis on why these models perform well in practice. In this work, we prove that attention-based architectures have structural benefits over graph convolutional networks in the context of node-level prediction tasks. Specifically, we study the neural network gaussian process limits of graph transformers (GAT, Graphormer, Specformer) with infinite width and infinite heads, and derive the node-level and edge-level kernels across the layers. Our results characterise how the node features and the graph structure propagate through the graph attention layers. As a specific example, we prove that graph transformers structurally preserve community information and maintain discriminative node representations even in deep layers, thereby preventing oversmoothing. We provide empirical evidence on synthetic and real-world graphs that validate our theoretical insights, such as integrating informative priors and positional encoding can improve performance of deep graph transformers.

Understanding the distance between human languages is central to linguistics, anthropology, and tracing human evolutionary history. Yet, while linguistics has long provided rich qualitative accounts of cross-linguistic variation, a unified and scalable quantitative approach to measuring language distance remains lacking. In this paper, we introduce a method that leverages pretrained multilingual language models as systematic instruments for linguistic measurement. Specifically, we show that the spontaneously emerged attention mechanisms of these models provide a robust, tokenization-agnostic measure of cross-linguistic distance, termed Attention Transport Distance (ATD). By treating attention matrices as probability distributions and measuring their geometric divergence via optimal transport, we quantify the representational distance between languages during translation. Applying ATD to a large and diverse set of languages, we demonstrate that the resulting distances recover established linguistic groupings with high fidelity and reveal patterns aligned with geographic and contact-induced relationships. Furthermore, incorporating ATD as a regularizer improves transfer performance in low-resource machine translation. Our results establish a principled foundation for testing linguistic hypotheses using artificial neural networks. This framework transforms multilingual models into powerful tools for quantitative linguistic discovery, facilitating more equitable multilingual AI.

Can latent actions and environment dynamics be recovered from offline trajectories when actions are never observed? We study this question in a setting where trajectories are action-free but tagged with demonstrator identity. We assume that each demonstrator follows a distinct policy, while the environment dynamics are shared across demonstrators and identity affects the next observation only through the chosen action. Under these assumptions, the conditional next-observation distribution $p(o_{t+1}\mid o_t,e)$ is a mixture of latent action-conditioned transition kernels with demonstrator-specific mixing weights. We show that this induces, for each state, a column-stochastic nonnegative matrix factorization of the observable conditional distribution. Using sufficiently scattered policy diversity and rank conditions, we prove that the latent transitions and demonstrator policies are identifiable up to permutation of the latent action labels. We extend the result to continuous observation spaces via a Gram-determinant minimum-volume criterion, and show that continuity of the transition map over a connected state space upgrades local permutation ambiguities to a single global permutation. A small amount of labeled action data then suffices to fix this final ambiguity. These results establish demonstrator diversity as a principled source of identifiability for learning latent actions and dynamics from offline RL data.

We introduce a general framework for analyzing learning algorithms based on the notion of self-regularization, which captures implicit complexity control without requiring explicit regularization. This is motivated by previous observations that many algorithms, such as gradient-descent based learning, exhibit implicit regularization. In a nutshell, for a self-regularized algorithm the complexity of the predictor is inherently controlled by that of the simplest comparator achieving the same empirical risk. This framework is sufficiently rich to cover both classical regularized empirical risk minimization and gradient descent. Building on self-regularization, we provide a thorough statistical analysis of such algorithms including minmax-optimal rates, where it suffices to show that the algorithm is self-regularized -- all further requirements stem from the learning problem itself. Finally, we discuss the problem of data-dependent hyperparameter selection, providing a general result which yields minmax-optimal rates up to a double logarithmic factor and covers data-driven early stopping for RKHS-based gradient descent.