The exploration-exploitation trade-off is among the central challenges of reinforcement learning. The optimal Bayesian solution is intractable in general. This paper studies to what extent analytic statements about optimal learning are possible if all beliefs are Gaussian processes. A first order approximation of learning of both loss and dynamics, for nonlinear, time-varying systems in continuous time and space, subject to a relatively weak restriction on the dynamics, is described by an infinite-dimensional partial differential equation. An approximate finite-dimensional projection gives an impression for how this result may be helpful.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven to be a powerful, generic planning technique for decision-making in single-agent and adversarial environments. The stochastic nature of the Monte-Carlo simulations introduces errors in the value estimates, both in terms of bias and variance. Whilst reducing bias (typically through the addition of domain knowledge) has been studied in the MCTS literature, comparatively little effort has focused on reducing variance. This is somewhat surprising, since variance reduction techniques are a well-studied area in classical statistics. In this paper, we examine the application of some standard techniques for variance reduction in MCTS, including common random numbers, antithetic variates and control variates. We demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to MCTS and explore their efficacy on three different stochastic, single-agent settings: Pig, Can't Stop and Dominion.

Clustering is a popular problem with many applications. We consider the k-means problem in the situation where the data is too large to be stored in main memory and must be accessed sequentially, such as from a disk, and where we must use as little memory as possible. Our algorithm is based on recent theoretical results, with significant improvements to make it practical. Our approach greatly simplifies a recently developed algorithm, both in design and in analysis, and eliminates large constant factors in the approximation guarantee, the memory requirements, and the running time. We then incorporate approximate nearest neighbor search to compute k-means in o( nk) (where n is the number of data points; note that computing the cost, given a solution, takes 8(nk) time). We show that our algorithm compares favorably to existing algorithms - both theoretically and experimentally, thus providing state-of-the-art performance in both theory and practice.

Psychologists have recently begun to develop computational accounts of how people infer others' preferences from their behavior. The inverse decision-making approach proposes that people infer preferences by inverting a generative model of decision-making. Existing data sets, however, do not provide sufficient resolution to thoroughly evaluate this approach. We introduce a new preference learning task that provides a benchmark for evaluating computational accounts and use it to compare the inverse decision-making approach to a feature-based approach, which relies on a discriminative combination of decision features. Our data support the inverse decision-making approach to preference learning.

Learning problems such as logistic regression are typically formulated as pure optimization problems defined on some loss function. We argue that this view ignores the fact that the loss function depends on stochastically generated data which in turn determines an intrinsic scale of precision for statistical estimation. By considering the statistical properties of the update variables used during the optimization (e.g. gradients), we can construct frequentist hypothesis tests to determine the reliability of these updates. We utilize subsets of the data for computing updates, and use the hypothesis tests for determining when the batch-size needs to be increased. This provides computational benefits and avoids overfitting by stopping when the batch-size has become equal to size of the full dataset. Moreover, the proposed algorithms depend on a single interpretable parameter – the probability for an update to be in the wrong direction – which is set to a single value across all algorithms and datasets. In this paper, we illustrate these ideas on three L1 regularized coordinate algorithms: L1 -regularized L2 -loss SVMs, L1 -regularized logistic regression, and the Lasso, but we emphasize that the underlying methods are much more generally applicable.

We describe a novel technique for feature combination in the bag-of-words model of image classification. Our approach builds discriminative compound words from primitive cues learned independently from training images. Our main observation is that modeling joint-cue distributions independently is more statistically robust for typical classification problems than attempting to empirically estimate the dependent, joint-cue distribution directly. We use Information theoretic vocabulary compression to find discriminative combinations of cues and the resulting vocabulary of portmanteau words is compact, has the cue binding property, and supports individual weighting of cues in the final image representation. State-of-the-art results on both the Oxford Flower-102 and Caltech-UCSD Bird-200 datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique compared to other, significantly more complex approaches to multi-cue image representation

We introduce the Gamma-Exponential Process (GEP), a prior over a large family of continuous time stochastic processes. A hierarchical version of this prior (HGEP; the Hierarchical GEP) yields a useful model for analyzing complex time series. Models based on HGEPs display many attractive properties: conjugacy, exchangeability and closed-form predictive distribution for the waiting times, and exact Gibbs updates for the time scale parameters. After establishing these properties, we show how posterior inference can be carried efficiently using Particle MCMC methods [1]. This yields a MCMC algorithm that can resample entire sequences atomically while avoiding the complications of introducing slice and stick auxiliary variables of the beam sampler [2]. We applied our model to the problem of estimating the disease progression in multiple sclerosis [3], and to RNA evolutionary modeling [4]. In both domains, we found that our model outperformed the standard rate matrix estimation approach.

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) use brain signals to convey a user's intent. Some BCI approaches begin by decoding kinematic parameters of movements from brain signals, and then proceed to using these signals, in absence of movements, to allow a user to control an output. Recent results have shown that electrocorticographic (ECoG) recordings from the surface of the brain in humans can give information about kinematic parameters (e.g., hand velocity or finger flexion). The decoding approaches in these demonstrations usually employed classical classification/regression algorithms that derive a linear mapping between brain signals and outputs. However, they typically only incorporate little prior information about the target kinematic parameter.

Efficient coding provides a powerful principle for explaining early sensory coding. Most attempts to test this principle have been limited to linear, noiseless models, and when applied to natural images, have yielded oriented filters consistent with responses in primary visual cortex. Here we show that an efficient coding model that incorporates biologically realistic ingredients - input and output noise, nonlinear response functions, and a metabolic cost on the firing rate - predicts receptive fields and response nonlinearities similar to those observed in the retina. Specifically, we develop numerical methods for simultaneously learning the linear filters and response nonlinearities of a population of model neurons, so as to maximize information transmission subject to metabolic costs. When applied to an ensemble of natural images, the method yields filters that are center-surround and nonlinearities that are rectifying. The filters are organized into two populations, with On-and Off-centers, which independently tile the visual space. As observed in the primate retina, the Off-center neurons are more numerous and have filters with smaller spatial extent. In the absence of noise, our method reduces to a generalized version of independent components analysis, with an adapted nonlinear "contrast" function; in this case, the optimal filters are localized and oriented.

Learning sparse representations on data adaptive dictionaries is a state-of-the-art method for modeling data. But when the dictionary is large and the data dimension is high, it is a computationally challenging problem. We explore three aspects of the problem. First, we derive new, greatly improved screening tests that quickly identify codewords that are guaranteed to have zero weights. Second, we study the properties of random projections in the context of learning sparse representations. Finally, we develop a hierarchical framework that uses incremental random projections and screening to learn, in small stages, a hierarchically structured dictionary for sparse representations. Empirical results show that our framework can learn informative hierarchical sparse representations more efficiently.