Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-24.2% at specificity of 28.6-33.3%. We take a different approach by exploiting databases of normal hospital operations. We aims are twofold: (i) to derive an easy-to-use, interpretable prediction rule with quantified uncertainties, and (ii) to construct accurate classifiers for preterm birth prediction. Our approach is to automatically generate and select from hundreds (if not thousands) of possible predictors using stability-aware techniques. Derived from a large database of 15,814 women, our simplified prediction rule with only 10 items has sensitivity of 62.3% at specificity of 81.5%.

Traditional voxel-level multiple testing procedures in neuroimaging, mostly $p$-value based, often ignore the spatial correlations among neighboring voxels and thus suffer from substantial loss of power. We extend the local-significance-index based procedure originally developed for the hidden Markov chain models, which aims to minimize the false nondiscovery rate subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate, to three-dimensional neuroimaging data using a hidden Markov random field model. A generalized expectation-maximization algorithm for maximizing the penalized likelihood is proposed for estimating the model parameters. Extensive simulations show that the proposed approach is more powerful than conventional false discovery rate procedures. We apply the method to the comparison between mild cognitive impairment, a disease status with increased risk of developing Alzheimer's or another dementia, and normal controls in the FDG-PET imaging study of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

We introduce the concept of continuous transportation task to the context of multi-agent systems. A continuous transportation task is one in which a multi-agent team visits a number of fixed locations, picks up objects, and delivers them to a final destination. The goal is to maximize the rate of transportation while the objects are replenished over time. Examples of problems that need continuous transportation are foraging, area sweeping, and first/last mile problem. Previous approaches typically neglect the interference and are highly dependent on communications among agents. Some also incorporate an additional reconnaissance agent to gather information. In this paper, we present a hybrid of centralized and distributed approaches that minimize the interference and communications in the multi-agent team without the need for a reconnaissance agent. We contribute two partitioning-transportation algorithms inspired by existing algorithms, and contribute one novel online partitioning-transportation algorithm with information gathering in the multi-agent team. Our algorithms have been implemented and tested extensively in the simulation. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms that outperform the existing algorithms, even without any communications between the agents and without the presence of a reconnaissance agent.

With the development of high-throughput technologies, principal component analysis (PCA) in the high-dimensional regime is of great interest. Most of the existing theoretical and methodological results for high-dimensional PCA are based on the spiked population model in which all the population eigenvalues are equal except for a few large ones. Due to the presence of local correlation among features, however, this assumption may not be satisfied in many real-world datasets. To address this issue, we investigated the asymptotic behaviors of PCA under the generalized spiked population model. Based on the theoretical results, we proposed a series of methods for the consistent estimation of population eigenvalues, angles between the sample and population eigenvectors, correlation coefficients between the sample and population principal component (PC) scores, and the shrinkage bias adjustment for the predicted PC scores. Using numerical experiments and real data examples from the genetics literature, we showed that our methods can greatly reduce bias and improve prediction accuracy.

Statistical inference on graphs is a burgeoning field of research in machine learning and statistics, with numerous applications to social network, neuroscience, etc. Many statistical inference procedures for graphs involve a preprocessing step of finding a representation of the vertices as points in some low-dimensional Euclidean space. This representation is usually given by the truncated eigendecomposition of the adjacency matrix or related matrices such as the combinatorial Laplacian or the normalized Laplacian. For example, given a point cloud lying in some purported low-dimensional manifold in a high-dimensional ambient space, many manifold learning or nonlinear dimension reduction algorithms such as Laplacian eigenmaps [5] and diffusion maps [15] use the eigenvectors of the normalized Laplacian constructed from a neighborhood graph of the points as a low-dimensional Euclidean representation of the point cloud before performing inference such as clustering or classification. Spectral clustering 1 algorithms such as the normalized cuts algorithm [35] proceed by embedding a graph into a low-dimensional Euclidean space followed by running K-means on the embedding to obtain a partitioning of the vertices.

Source imaging based on magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) allows for the non-invasive analysis of brain activity with high temporal and good spatial resolution. As the bioelectromagnetic inverse problem is ill-posed, constraints are required. For the analysis of evoked brain activity, spatial sparsity of the neuronal activation is a common assumption. It is often taken into account using convex constraints based on the l1-norm. The resulting source estimates are however biased in amplitude and often suboptimal in terms of source selection due to high correlations in the forward model. In this work, we demonstrate that an inverse solver based on a block-separable penalty with a Frobenius norm per block and a l0.5-quasinorm over blocks addresses both of these issues. For solving the resulting non-convex optimization problem, we propose the iterative reweighted Mixed Norm Estimate (irMxNE), an optimization scheme based on iterative reweighted convex surrogate optimization problems, which are solved efficiently using a block coordinate descent scheme and an active set strategy. We compare the proposed sparse imaging method to the dSPM and the RAP-MUSIC approach based on two MEG data sets. We provide empirical evidence based on simulations and analysis of MEG data that the proposed method improves on the standard Mixed Norm Estimate (MxNE) in terms of amplitude bias, support recovery, and stability.

This work addresses the issue of large covariance matrix estimation in high-dimensional statistical analysis. Recently, improved iterative algorithms with positive-definite guarantee have been developed. However, these algorithms cannot be directly extended to use a nonconvex penalty for sparsity inducing. Generally, a nonconvex penalty has the capability of ameliorating the bias problem of the popular convex lasso penalty, and thus is more advantageous. In this work, we propose a class of positive-definite covariance estimators using generalized nonconvex penalties. We develop a first-order algorithm based on the alternating direction method framework to solve the nonconvex optimization problem efficiently. The convergence of this algorithm has been proved. Further, the statistical properties of the new estimators have been analyzed for generalized nonconvex penalties. Moreover, extension of this algorithm to covariance estimation from sketched measurements has been considered. The performances of the new estimators have been demonstrated by both a simulation study and a gene clustering example for tumor tissues. Code for the proposed estimators is available at https://github.com/FWen/Nonconvex-PDLCE.git.

Sparse linear regression, which entails finding a sparse solution to an underdetermined system of linear equations, can formally be expressed as an $l_0$-constrained least-squares problem. The Orthogonal Least-Squares (OLS) algorithm sequentially selects the features (i.e., columns of the coefficient matrix) to greedily find an approximate sparse solution. In this paper, a generalization of Orthogonal Least-Squares which relies on a recursive relation between the components of the optimal solution to select L features at each step and solve the resulting overdetermined system of equations is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the generalized OLS algorithm is computationally efficient and achieves performance superior to that of existing greedy algorithms broadly used in the literature.

School of Engineering, Brown University Providence, RI 02912, USA Abstract Non-convex optimization is ubiquitous in machine learning. The bound at each iteration is required to touch the objective function at the optimizer of the previous bound. We show that this touching constraint is unnecessary and overly restrictive. We generalize MM by relaxing this constraint, and propose a new optimization framework, named Generalized Majorization-Minimization (G-MM) that is more flexible compared to MM. For instance, it can incorporate application-specific biases into the optimization procedure without changing the objective function. We derive G-MM algorithms for several latent variable models and show empirically that they consistently outperform their MM counterparts in optimizing non-convex objectives. In particular, G-MM algorithms appear to be less sensitive to initialization. Keywords: majorization-minimization, non-convex optimization, latent variable models, expectation maximization 1. Introduction Non-convex optimization is ubiquitous in machine learning. Majorization-Minimization (MM) (Hunter et al., 2000) is an optimization framework for designing well-behaved optimization algorithms for non-convex functions. MM algorithms work by iteratively optimizing a sequence of easy-to-optimize surrogate functions that bound the objective. Two of the most successful instances of MM algorithms are Expectation-Maximization (EM) (Dempster et al., 1977) and the Concave-Convex Proce-1 arXiv:1506.07613v2 However, both have a number of drawbacks in practice, such as sensitivity to initialization and lack of uncertainty modeling for latent variables. This has been noted in works such as (Neal and Hinton, 1998; Felzenszwalb et al., 2010; Parizi et al., 2012; Kumar et al., 2012; Ping et al., 2014). We propose a new procedure, Generalized Majorization-Minimization (G-MM), for optimizing non-convex objective functions. Our approach is inspired by MM, but we generalize the bound construction process.

We describe and analyze some novel approaches for studying the dynamics of Ising spin glass models. We first briefly consider the variational approach based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between independent trajectories and the real ones and note that this approach only coincides with the mean field equations from the saddle point approximation to the generating functional when the dynamics is defined through a logistic link function, which is the case for the kinetic Ising model with parallel update. We then spend the rest of the paper developing two ways of going beyond the saddle point approximation to the generating functional. In the first one, we develop a variational perturbative approximation to the generating functional by expanding the action around a quadratic function of the local fields and conjugate local fields whose parameters are optimized. We derive analytical expressions for the optimal parameters and show that when the optimization is suitably restricted, we recover the mean field equations that are exact for the fully asymmetric random couplings (M\'ezard and Sakellariou, 2011). However, without this restriction the results are different. We also describe an extended Plefka expansion in which in addition to the magnetization, we also fix the correlation and response functions. Finally, we numerically study the performance of these approximations for Sherrington-Kirkpatrick type couplings for various coupling strengths, degrees of coupling symmetry and external fields. We show that the dynamical equations derived from the extended Plefka expansion outperform the others in all regimes, although it is computationally more demanding. The unconstrained variational approach does not perform well in the small coupling regime, while it approaches dynamical TAP equations of (Roudi and Hertz, 2011) for strong couplings.