Topic models are probabilistic models for discovering topical themes in collections of documents. In real world applications, these models provide us with the means of organizing what would otherwise be unstructured collections. They can help us cluster a huge collection into different topics or find a subset of the collection that resembles the topical theme found in an article at hand. The first wave of topic models developed were able to discover the prevailing topics in a big collection of documents spanning a period of time. It was later realized that these time-invariant models were not capable of modeling 1) the time varying number of topics they discover and 2) the time changing structure of these topics. Few models were developed to address this two deficiencies. The online-hierarchical Dirichlet process models the documents with a time varying number of topics. It varies the structure of the topics over time as well. However, it relies on document order, not timestamps to evolve the model over time. The continuous-time dynamic topic model evolves topic structure in continuous-time. However, it uses a fixed number of topics over time. In this dissertation, I present a model, the continuous-time infinite dynamic topic model, that combines the advantages of these two models 1) the online-hierarchical Dirichlet process, and 2) the continuous-time dynamic topic model. More specifically, the model I present is a probabilistic topic model that does the following: 1) it changes the number of topics over continuous time, and 2) it changes the topic structure over continuous-time. I compared the model I developed with the two other models with different setting values. The results obtained were favorable to my model and showed the need for having a model that has a continuous-time varying number of topics and topic structure.

Time series modeling and forecasting has fundamental importance to various practical domains. Thus a lot of active research works is going on in this subject during several years. Many important models have been proposed in literature for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of time series forecasting. The aim of this dissertation work is to present a concise description of some popular time series forecasting models used in practice, with their salient features. In this thesis, we have described three important classes of time series models, viz. the stochastic, neural networks and SVM based models, together with their inherent forecasting strengths and weaknesses. We have also discussed about the basic issues related to time series modeling, such as stationarity, parsimony, overfitting, etc. Our discussion about different time series models is supported by giving the experimental forecast results, performed on six real time series datasets. While fitting a model to a dataset, special care is taken to select the most parsimonious one. To evaluate forecast accuracy as well as to compare among different models fitted to a time series, we have used the five performance measures, viz. MSE, MAD, RMSE, MAPE and Theil's U-statistics. For each of the six datasets, we have shown the obtained forecast diagram which graphically depicts the closeness between the original and forecasted observations. To have authenticity as well as clarity in our discussion about time series modeling and forecasting, we have taken the help of various published research works from reputed journals and some standard books.

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for parameter estimation that encompasses both on-line learning, where the model is continuously adapted to new data cases as they arrive, and the more traditional batch learning, where a pre-accumulated set of samples is used in a one-time model selection process. In the batch case, our framework encompasses both the gradient projection algorithm and the EM algorithm for Bayesian networks. The framework also leads to new on-line and batch parameter update schemes, including a parameterized version of EM. We provide both empirical and theoretical results indicating that parameterized EM allows faster convergence to the maximum likelihood parameters than does standard EM.

The Answer Set Programming (ASP) Competition is a biannual event for evaluating declarative knowledge representation systems on hard and demanding AI problems. The competition consists of two main tracks: the ASP system track and the model and solve track. The traditional system track compares dedicated answer set solvers on ASP benchmarks, while the model and solve track invites any researcher and developer of declarative knowledge representation systems to participate in an open challenge for solving sophisticated AI problems with their tools of choice. This article provides an overview of the ASP competition series, reviews its origins and history, giving insights on organizing and running such an elaborate event, and briefly discusses about the lessons learned so far.

Many fundamental problems in artificial intelligence, knowledge representation, and verification involve reasoning about sets and relations between sets and can be modeled as set constraint satisfaction problems (set CSPs). Such problems are frequently intractable, but there are several important set CSPs that are known to be polynomial-time tractable. We introduce a large class of set CSPs that can be solved in quadratic time. Our class, which we call EI, contains all previously known tractable set CSPs, but also some new ones that are of crucial importance for example in description logics. The class of EI set constraints has an elegant universal-algebraic characterization, which we use to show that every set constraint language that properly contains all EI set constraints already has a finite sublanguage with an NP-hard constraint satisfaction problem.

The AAAI-12 Workshop program was held Sunday and Monday, July 22–23, 2012 at the Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The AAAI-12 workshop program included 9 workshops covering a wide range of topics in artificial intelligence. The titles of the workshops were Activity Context Representation: Techniques and Languages, AI for Data Center Management and Cloud Computing, Cognitive Robotics, Grounding Language for Physical Systems, Human Computation, Intelligent Techniques for Web Personalization and Recommendation, Multiagent Pathfinding, Neural-Symbolic Learning and Reasoning, Problem Solving Using Classical Planners, Semantic Cities. This article presents short summaries of those events.

Sparse learning models typically combine a smooth loss with a nonsmooth penalty, such as trace norm. Although recent developments in sparse approximation have offered promising solution methods, current approaches either apply only to matrix-norm constrained problems or provide suboptimal convergence rates. In this paper, we propose a boosting method for regularized learning that guarantees $\epsilon$ accuracy within $O(1/\epsilon)$ iterations. Performance is further accelerated by interlacing boosting with fixed-rank local optimization---exploiting a simpler local objective than previous work. The proposed method yields state-of-the-art performance on large-scale problems. We also demonstrate an application to latent multiview learning for which we provide the first efficient weak-oracle.

Kernel-based stochastic factorization (KBSF) is an algorithm for solving reinforcement learningtasks with continuous state spaces which builds a Markov decision process (MDP) based on a set of sample transitions. What sets KBSF apart from other kernel-based approaches is the fact that the size of its MDP is independent ofthe number of transitions, which makes it possible to control the tradeoff between the quality of the resulting approximation and the associated computational cost.However, KBSF's memory usage grows linearly with the number of transitions, precluding its application in scenarios where a large amount of data must be processed. In this paper we show that it is possible to construct KBSF's MDP in a fully incremental way, thus freeing the space complexity of this algorithm fromits dependence on the number of sample transitions. The incremental version of KBSF is able to process an arbitrary amount of data, which results in a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm that can be used to solve continuous MDPsin both off-line and online regimes. We present theoretical results showing that KBSF can approximate the value function that would be computed by conventional kernel-based learning with arbitrary precision. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in the challenging threepole balancingtask, in which the ability to process a large number of transitions is crucial for success.

In this tutorial, I will discuss the details about how Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) is formalized and how different learning algorithms are proposed to learn the model.

In the recent years, we have linked a large corpus of formal mathematics with automated theorem proving (ATP) tools, and started to develop combined AI/ATP systems working in this setting. In this paper we first relate this project to the earlier large-scale automated developments done by Quaife with McCune's Otter system, and to the discussions of the QED project about formalizing a significant part of mathematics. Then we summarize our adventure so far, argue that the QED dreams were right in anticipating the creation of a very interesting semantic AI field, and discuss its further research directions.