Exemplar-based clustering methods have been shown to produce state-of-the-art results on a number of synthetic and real-world clustering problems. They are appealing because they offer computational benefits over latent-mean models and can handle arbitrary pairwise similarity measures between data points. However, when trying to recover underlying structure in clustering problems, tailored similarity measures are often not enough; we also desire control over the distribution of cluster sizes. Priors such as Dirichlet process priors allow the number of clusters to be unspecified while expressing priors over data partitions. To our knowledge, they have not been applied to exemplar-based models. We show how to incorporate priors, including Dirichlet process priors, into the recently introduced affinity propagation algorithm. We develop an efficient maxproduct belief propagation algorithm for our new model and demonstrate experimentally how the expanded range of clustering priors allows us to better recover true clusterings in situations where we have some information about the generating process.

We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about possible orderings, or rankings, of variables. Interestingly, we find that the conditional independence properties of CDNs are quite different from other graphical models. We also describe a messagepassing algorithm that efficiently computes conditional cumulative distributions. Due to the unique independence properties of the CDN, these messages do not in general have a one-to-one correspondence with messages exchanged in standard algorithms, such as belief propagation. We demonstrate the application of CDNs for structured ranking learning using a previously-studied multi-player gaming dataset.

Nonparametric Bayesian models are often based on the assumption that the objects being modeled are exchangeable. While appropriate in some applications (e.g., bag-of-words models for documents), exchangeability is sometimes assumed simply for computational reasons; non-exchangeable models might be a better choice for applications based on subject matter. Drawing on ideas from graphical models and phylogenetics, we describe a non-exchangeable prior for a class of nonparametric latent feature models that is nearly as efficient computationally as its exchangeable counterpart. Our model is applicable to the general setting in which the dependencies between objects can be expressed using a tree, where edge lengths indicate the strength of relationships. We demonstrate an application to modeling probabilistic choice.

Confidence measures for the generalization error are crucial when small training samples are used to construct classifiers. A common approach is to estimate the generalization error by resampling and then assume the resampled estimator follows a known distribution to form a confidence set [Kohavi 1995, Martin 1996,Yang 2006]. Alternatively, one might bootstrap the resampled estimator of the generalization error to form a confidence set. Unfortunately, these methods do not reliably provide sets of the desired confidence. The poor performance appears to be due to the lack of smoothness of the generalization error as a function of the learned classifier. This results in a non-normal distribution of the estimated generalization error. We construct a confidence set for the generalization error by use of a smooth upper bound on the deviation between the resampled estimate and generalization error. The confidence set is formed by bootstrapping this upper bound. In cases in which the approximation class for the classifier can be represented as a parametric additive model, we provide a computationally efficient algorithm. This method exhibits superior performance across a series of test and simulated data sets.

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are useful in a broad range of applications. In this paper we tackle the problem of learning a sparse GMRF in a high-dimensional space. Our approach uses the l1-norm as a regularization on the inverse covariance matrix. We utilize a novel projected gradient method, which is faster than previous methods in practice and equal to the best performing of these in asymptotic complexity. We also extend the l1-regularized objective to the problem of sparsifying entire blocks within the inverse covariance matrix. Our methods generalize fairly easily to this case, while other methods do not. We demonstrate that our extensions give better generalization performance on two real domains--biological network analysis and a 2D-shape modeling image task.

We introduce Clique Matrices as an alternative representation of undirected graphs, being a generalisation of the incidence matrix representation. Here we use clique matrices to decompose a graph into a set of possibly overlapping clusters, de ned as well-connected subsets of vertices. The decomposition is based on a statistical description which encourages clusters to be well connected and few in number. Inference is carried out using a variational approximation. Clique matrices also play a natural role in parameterising positive de nite matrices under zero constraints on elements of the matrix. We show that clique matrices can parameterise all positive de nite matrices restricted according to a decomposable graph and form a structured Factor Analysis approximation in the non-decomposable case.

Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also inefficient for large count values and requires averaging over many samples to reduce variance. On the other hand, variational Bayesian inference is efficient and accurate for large count values but suffers from bias for small counts. We propose a hybrid algorithm that combines the best of both worlds: it samples very small counts and applies variational updates to large counts. This hybridization is shown to significantly improve testset perplexity relative to variational inference at no computational cost.

Continuous state spaces and stochastic, switching dynamics characterize a number of rich, realworld domains, such as robot navigation across varying terrain. We describe a reinforcementlearning algorithm for learning in these domains and prove for certain environments the algorithm is probably approximately correct with a sample complexity that scales polynomially with the state-space dimension. Unfortunately, no optimal planning techniques exist in general for such problems; instead we use fitted value iteration to solve the learned MDP, and include the error due to approximate planning in our bounds. Finally, we report an experiment using a robotic car driving over varying terrain to demonstrate that these dynamics representations adequately capture real-world dynamics and that our algorithm can be used to efficiently solve such problems.

Parameter estimation in Markov random fields (MRFs) is a difficult task, in which inference over the network is run in the inner loop of a gradient descent procedure. Replacing exact inference with approximate methods such as loopy belief propagation (LBP) can suffer from poor convergence. In this paper, we provide a different approach for combining MRF learning and Bethe approximation. We consider the dual of maximum likelihood Markov network learning - maximizing entropy with moment matching constraints - and then approximate both the objective and the constraints in the resulting optimization problem. Unlike previous work along these lines (Teh & Welling, 2003), our formulation allows parameter sharing between features in a general log-linear model, parameter regularization and conditional training. We show that piecewise training (Sutton & McCallum, 2005) is a very restricted special case of this formulation. We study two optimization strategies: one based on a single convex approximation and one that uses repeated convex approximations. We show results on several real-world networks that demonstrate that these algorithms can significantly outperform learning with loopy and piecewise. Our results also provide a framework for analyzing the trade-offs of different relaxations of the entropy objective and of the constraints.

We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. As an extension of Welling and Teh (2001), we define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals and derive an upper and lower bound for it. We give necessary conditions for the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energies to be bounded from below. It turns out that the bounding condition is the same as the pairwise normalizability condition derived by Malioutov et al. (2006) as a sufficient condition for the convergence of the message passing algorithm. By giving a counterexample, we disprove the conjecture in Welling and Teh (2001): even when the Bethe free energy is not bounded from below, it can possess a local minimum to which the minimization algorithms can converge.