Three years later in 2016, enough time has passed to discern patterns from trends. In that time the industry has experienced seismic shifts and a sweeping wave of consolidation. So let's take another look at the state of the digital nation and why, for the bold, great opportunity lies ahead. There's plenty of additional reading in the links for those who want to go down the rabbit hole, as well as a reference table at the end. Happy to continue the discussion on Twitter using the hashtag #DigitalNation at @ezyjules and @marvelapp. A sweeping wave of acquisitions has decimated the ranks of independent agencies and formed two clashing clans. On the one side are the giants of advertising and marketing and on the other the titans of management consultancy. Meanwhile the market over which they are fighting is in the midst of a multi-faceted existential crisis. Over the last four years the design consultancy industry has experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation, building to a ...

Motivated by a real-world problem, we study a novel budgeted optimization problem where the goal is to optimize an unknown function f(.) given a budget by requesting a sequence of samples from the function. In our setting, however, evaluating the function at precisely specified points is not practically possible due to prohibitive costs. Instead, we can only request constrained experiments. A constrained experiment, denoted by Q, specifies a subset of the input space for the experimenter to sample the function from. The outcome of Q includes a sampled experiment x, and its function output f(x). Importantly, as the constraints of Q become looser, the cost of fulfilling the request decreases, but the uncertainty about the location x increases. Our goal is to manage this trade-off by selecting a set of constrained experiments that best optimize f(.) within the budget. We study this problem in two different settings, the non-sequential (or batch) setting where a set of constrained experiments is selected at once, and the sequential setting where experiments are selected one at a time. We evaluate our proposed methods for both settings using synthetic and real functions. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

In ontology-based data access (OBDA), database querying is enriched with an ontology that provides domain knowledge and additional vocabulary for query formulation. We identify query emptiness and predicate emptiness as two central reasoning services in this context. Query emptiness asks whether a given query has an empty answer over all databases formulated in a given vocabulary. Predicate emptiness is defined analogously, but quantifies universally over all queries that contain a given predicate. In this paper, we determine the computational complexity of query emptiness and predicate emptiness in the EL, DL-Lite, and ALC-families of description logics, investigate the connection to ontology modules, and perform a practical case study to evaluate the new reasoning services.

We propose a novel approach for pixel classification in hyperspectral images, leveraging on both the spatial and spectral information in the data. The introduced method relies on a recently proposed framework for learning on distributions -- by representing them with mean elements in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and formulating a classification algorithm therein. In particular, we associate each pixel to an empirical distribution of its neighbouring pixels, a judicious representation of which in an RKHS, in conjunction with the spectral information contained in the pixel itself, give a new explicit set of features that can be fed into a suite of standard classification techniques -- we opt for a well-established framework of support vector machines (SVM). Furthermore, the computational complexity is reduced via random Fourier features formalism. We study the consistency and the convergence rates of the proposed method and the experiments demonstrate strong performance on hyperspectral data with gains in comparison to the state-of-the-art results.

We use smoothed analysis techniques to provide guarantees on the training loss of Multilayer Neural Networks (MNNs) at differentiable local minima. Specifically, we examine MNNs with piecewise linear activation functions, quadratic loss and a single output, under mild over-parametrization. We prove that for a MNN with one hidden layer, the training error is zero at every differentiable local minimum, for almost every dataset and dropout-like noise realization. We then extend these results to the case of more than one hidden layer. Our theoretical guarantees assume essentially nothing on the training data, and are verified numerically. These results suggest why the highly non-convex loss of such MNNs can be easily optimized using local updates (e.g., stochastic gradient descent), as observed empirically.

We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW) and sea surface temperatures (SST) taken over the equatorial band of the Pacific Ocean. The method identifies these unusual climate states on the basis of the relation between ZW and SST patterns without any input about past occurrences of El Nino or La Nina. The simpler alternatives of (i) clustering the SST fields while disregarding their relationship with ZW patterns, or (ii) clustering the joint ZW-SST patterns, do not discover El Nino. We discuss the degree to which our method supports a causal interpretation and use a low-dimensional toy example to explain its success over other clustering approaches. Finally, we propose a new robust and scalable alternative to our original algorithm (Chalupka 2016), which circumvents the need for high-dimensional density learning.

Many real world graphs, such as the graphs of molecules, exhibit structure at multiple different scales, but most existing kernels between graphs are either purely local or purely global in character. In contrast, by building a hierarchy of nested subgraphs, the Multiscale Laplacian Graph kernels (MLG kernels) that we define in this paper can account for structure at a range of different scales. At the heart of the MLG construction is another new graph kernel, called the Feature Space Laplacian Graph kernel (FLG kernel), which has the property that it can lift a base kernel defined on the vertices of two graphs to a kernel between the graphs. The MLG kernel applies such FLG kernels to subgraphs recursively. To make the MLG kernel computationally feasible, we also introduce a randomized projection procedure, similar to the Nystr\"om method, but for RKHS operators.

Many sensors, such as range, sonar, radar, GPS and visual devices, produce measurements which are contaminated by outliers. This problem can be addressed by using fat-tailed sensor models, which account for the possibility of outliers. Unfortunately, all estimation algorithms belonging to the family of Gaussian filters (such as the widely-used extended Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter) are inherently incompatible with such fat-tailed sensor models. The contribution of this paper is to show that any Gaussian filter can be made compatible with fat-tailed sensor models by applying one simple change: Instead of filtering with the physical measurement, we propose to filter with a pseudo measurement obtained by applying a feature function to the physical measurement. We derive such a feature function which is optimal under some conditions. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively handle measurement outliers and allows for robust filtering in both linear and nonlinear systems.

This paper proposes CF-NADE, a neural autoregressive architecture for collaborative filtering (CF) tasks, which is inspired by the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) based CF model and the Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE). We first describe the basic CF-NADE model for CF tasks. Then we propose to improve the model by sharing parameters between different ratings. A factored version of CF-NADE is also proposed for better scalability. Furthermore, we take the ordinal nature of the preferences into consideration and propose an ordinal cost to optimize CF-NADE, which shows superior performance. Finally, CF-NADE can be extended to a deep model, with only moderately increased computational complexity. Experimental results show that CF-NADE with a single hidden layer beats all previous state-of-the-art methods on MovieLens 1M, MovieLens 10M, and Netflix datasets, and adding more hidden layers can further improve the performance.

An augmented Lagrangian (AL) can convert a constrained optimization problem into a sequence of simpler (e.g., unconstrained) problems, which are then usually solved with local solvers. Recently, surrogate-based Bayesian optimization (BO) sub-solvers have been successfully deployed in the AL framework for a more global search in the presence of inequality constraints; however, a drawback was that expected improvement (EI) evaluations relied on Monte Carlo. Here we introduce an alternative slack variable AL, and show that in this formulation the EI may be evaluated with library routines. The slack variables furthermore facilitate equality as well as inequality constraints, and mixtures thereof. We show how our new slack "ALBO" compares favorably to the original. Its superiority over conventional alternatives is reinforced on several mixed constraint examples.