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Improving Outbreak Detection with Stacking of Statistical Surveillance Methods
Kulessa, Moritz, Mencía, Eneldo Loza, Fürnkranz, Johannes
Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a false alarm. Recent research has shown that the use of machine learning for the fusion of multiple statistical algorithms improves outbreak detection. Instead of relying only on the binary output (alarm or no alarm) of the statistical algorithms, we propose to make use of their p-values for training a fusion classifier. In addition, we also show that adding additional features and adapting the labeling of an epidemic period may further improve performance. For comparison and evaluation, a new measure is introduced which captures the performance of an outbreak detection method with respect to a low rate of false alarms more precisely than previous works. Our results on synthetic data show that it is challenging to improve the performance with a trainable fusion method based on machine learning. In particular, the use of a fusion classifier that is only based on binary outputs of the statistical surveillance methods can make the overall performance worse than directly using the underlying algorithms. However, the use of p-values and additional information for the learning is promising, enabling to identify more valuable patterns to detect outbreaks.
$t$-$k$-means: A $k$-means Variant with Robustness and Stability
Zhang, Yang, Tang, Qingtao, Li, Yiming, Huang, Weipeng, Xia, Shutao
Lloyd's $k$-means algorithm is one of the most classical clustering method, which is widely used in data mining or as a data pre-processing procedure. However, due to the thin-tailed property of the Gaussian distribution, $k$-means suffers from relatively poor performance on the heavy-tailed data or outliers. In addition, $k$-means have a relatively weak stability, $i.e.$ its result has a large variance, which reduces the credibility of the model. In this paper, we propose a robust and stable $k$-means variant, the $t$-$k$-means, as well as its fast version in solving the flat clustering problem. Theoretically, we detail the derivations of $t$-$k$-means and analyze its robustness and stability from the aspect of loss function, influence function and the expression of clustering center. A large number of experiments are conducted, which empirically demonstrates that our method has empirical soundness while preserving running efficiency.
Feature Selection via Mutual Information: New Theoretical Insights
Beraha, Mario, Metelli, Alberto Maria, Papini, Matteo, Tirinzoni, Andrea, Restelli, Marcello
Mutual information has been successfully adopted in filter feature-selection methods to assess both the relevancy of a subset of features in predicting the target variable and the redundancy with respect to other variables. However, existing algorithms are mostly heuristic and do not offer any guarantee on the proposed solution. In this paper, we provide novel theoretical results showing that conditional mutual information naturally arises when bounding the ideal regression/classification errors achieved by different subsets of features. Leveraging on these insights, we propose a novel stopping condition for backward and forward greedy methods which ensures that the ideal prediction error using the selected feature subset remains bounded by a user-specified threshold. We provide numerical simulations to support our theoretical claims and compare to common heuristic methods.
$\texttt{DeepSqueeze}$: Parallel Stochastic Gradient Descent with Double-Pass Error-Compensated Compression
Tang, Hanlin, Lian, Xiangru, Qiu, Shuang, Yuan, Lei, Zhang, Ce, Zhang, Tong, Liu, Ji
Communication is a key bottleneck in distributed training. Recently, an \emph{error-compensated} compression technology was particularly designed for the \emph{centralized} learning and receives huge successes, by showing significant advantages over state-of-the-art compression based methods in saving the communication cost. Since the \emph{decentralized} training has been witnessed to be superior to the traditional \emph{centralized} training in the communication restricted scenario, therefore a natural question to ask is "how to apply the error-compensated technology to the decentralized learning to further reduce the communication cost." However, a trivial extension of compression based centralized training algorithms does not exist for the decentralized scenario. key difference between centralized and decentralized training makes this extension extremely non-trivial. In this paper, we propose an elegant algorithmic design to employ error-compensated stochastic gradient descent for the decentralized scenario, named $\texttt{DeepSqueeze}$. Both the theoretical analysis and the empirical study are provided to show the proposed $\texttt{DeepSqueeze}$ algorithm outperforms the existing compression based decentralized learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time to apply the error-compensated compression to the decentralized learning.
The stochastic multi-gradient algorithm for multi-objective optimization and its application to supervised machine learning
Liu, Suyun, Vicente, Luis Nunes
Optimization of conflicting functions is of paramount importance in decision making, and real world applications frequently involve data that is uncertain or unknown, resulting in multi-objective optimization (MOO) problems of stochastic type. We study the stochastic multi-gradient (SMG) method, seen as an extension of the classical stochastic gradient method for single-objective optimization. At each iteration of the SMG method, a stochastic multi-gradient direction is calculated by solving a quadratic subproblem, and it is shown that this direction is biased even when all individual gradient estimators are unbiased. We establish rates to compute a point in the Pareto front, of order similar to what is known for stochastic gradient in both convex and strongly convex cases. The analysis handles the bias in the multi-gradient and the unknown a priori weights of the limiting Pareto point. The SMG method is framed into a Pareto-front type algorithm for the computation of the entire Pareto front. The Pareto-front SMG algorithm is capable of robustly determining Pareto fronts for a number of synthetic test problems. One can apply it to any stochastic MOO problem arising from supervised machine learning, and we report results for logistic binary classification where multiple objectives correspond to distinct-sources data groups.
Encoding high-cardinality string categorical variables
Cerda, Patricio, Varoquaux, Gaël
Statistical models usually require vector representations of categorical variables, using for instance one-hot encoding. This strategy breaks down when the number of categories grows, as it creates high-dimensional feature vectors. Additionally, for string entries, one-hot encoding does not capture information in their representation.Here, we seek low-dimensional encoding of high-cardinality string categorical variables. Ideally, these should be: scalable to many categories; interpretable to end users; and facilitate statistical analysis. We introduce two encoding approaches for string categories: Gamma-Poisson matrix factorization on substring counts, and the min-hash encoder, for fast approximation of string similarities. We show that min-hash turns set inclusions into inequality relations that are easier to learn. Both approaches are scalable and streamable. Experiments on real and simulated data show that these methods improve supervised learning with high-cardinality categorical variables. We recommend the following: if scalability is central, the min-hash encoder is the best option as it does not require any data fit; if interpretability is important, the Gamma-Poisson factorization is the best alternative, as it can be interpreted as one-hot encoding on inferred categories with informative feature names. Both models enable autoML on the original string entries as they remove the need for feature engineering or data cleaning.
Block based Singular Value Decomposition approach to matrix factorization for recommender systems
Bhavana, Prasad, Kumar, Vikas, Padmanabhan, Vineet
With the abundance of data in recent years, interesting challenges are posed in the area of recommender systems. Producing high quality recommendations with scalability and performance is the need of the hour. Singular Value Decomposition(SVD) based recommendation algorithms have been leveraged to produce better results. In this paper, we extend the SVD technique further for scalability and performance in the context of 1) multi-threading 2) multiple computational units (with the use of Graphical Processing Units) and 3) distributed computation. We propose block based matrix factorization (BMF) paired with SVD. This enabled us to take advantage of SVD over basic matrix factorization(MF) while taking advantage of parallelism and scalability through BMF. We used Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) platform and related hardware for leveraging Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) along with block based SVD to demonstrate the advantages in terms of performance and memory.
Community Structure in Industrial SAT Instances
Ansótegui, Carlos, Bonet, Maria Luisa, Giráldez-Cru, Jesús, Levy, Jordi, Simon, Laurent
Modern SAT solvers have experienced a remarkable progress on solving industrial instances. Most of the techniques have been developed after an intensive experimental process. It is believed that these techniques exploit the underlying structure of industrial instances. However, there are few works trying to exactly characterize the main features of this structure. The research community on complex networks has developed techniques of analysis and algorithms to study real-world graphs that can be used by the SAT community. Recently, there have been some attempts to analyze the structure of industrial SAT instances in terms of complex networks, with the aim of explaining the success of SAT solving techniques, and possibly improving them. In this paper, inspired by the results on complex networks, we study the community structure, or modularity, of industrial SAT instances. In a graph with clear community structure, or high modularity, we can find a partition of its nodes into communities such that most edges connect variables of the same community. In our analysis, we represent SAT instances as graphs, and we show that most application benchmarks are characterized by a high modularity. On the contrary, random SAT instances are closer to the classical Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graph model, where no structure can be observed. We also analyze how this structure evolves by the effects of the execution of a CDCL SAT solver. In particular, we use the community structure to detect that new clauses learned by the solver during the search contribute to destroy the original structure of the formula. This is, learned clauses tend to contain variables of distinct communities.
Learning Variable Impedance Control for Contact Sensitive Tasks
Bogdanovic, Miroslav, Khadiv, Majid, Righetti, Ludovic
Reinforcement learning algorithms have shown great success in solving different problems ranging from playing video games to robotics. However, they struggle to solve delicate robotic problems, especially those involving contact interactions. Though in principle a policy outputting joint torques should be able to learn these tasks, in practice we see that they have difficulty to robustly solve the problem without any structure in the action space. In this paper, we investigate how the choice of action space can give robust performance in presence of contact uncertainties. We propose to learn a policy that outputs impedance and desired position in joint space as a function of system states without imposing any other structure to the problem. We compare the performance of this approach to torque and position control policies under different contact uncertainties. Extensive simulation results on two different systems, a hopper (floating-base) with intermittent contacts and a manipulator (fixed-base) wiping a table, show that our proposed approach outperforms policies outputting torque or position in terms of both learning rate and robustness to environment uncertainty.
Canada Protocol: an ethical checklist for the use of Artificial Intelligence in Suicide Prevention and Mental Health
Mörch, Carl-Maria, Gupta, Abhishek, Mishara, Brian L.
Introduction: To improve current public health strategies in suicide prevention and mental health, governments, researchers and private companies increasingly use information and communication technologies, and more specifically Artificial Intelligence and Big Data. These technologies are promising but raise ethical challenges rarely covered by current legal systems. It is essential to better identify, and prevent potential ethical risks. Objectives: The Canada Protocol - MHSP is a tool to guide and support professionals, users, and researchers using AI in mental health and suicide prevention. Methods: A checklist was constructed based upon ten international reports on AI and ethics and two guides on mental health and new technologies. 329 recommendations were identified, of which 43 were considered as applicable to Mental Health and AI. The checklist was validated, using a two round Delphi Consultation. Results: 16 experts participated in the first round of the Delphi Consultation and 8 participated in the second round. Of the original 43 items, 38 were retained. They concern five categories: "Description of the Autonomous Intelligent System" (n=8), "Privacy and Transparency" (n=8), "Security" (n=6), "Health-Related Risks" (n=8), "Biases" (n=8). The checklist was considered relevant by most users, and could need versions tailored to each category of target users.