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Understanding Overparametrization in Survival Models through Interpolation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Classical statistical learning theory predicts a U-shaped relationship between test loss and model capacity, driven by the bias-variance trade-off. Recent advances in modern machine learning have revealed a more complex pattern, \textit{double-descent}, in which test loss, after peaking near the interpolation threshold, decreases again as model capacity continues to grow. While this behavior has been extensively analyzed in regression and classification, its manifestation in survival analysis remains unexplored. This study investigates overparametrization in four representative survival models: DeepSurv, PC-Hazard, Nnet-Survival, and N-MTLR. We rigorously define \textit{interpolation} and \textit{finite-norm interpolation}, two key characteristics of loss-based models to understand \textit{double-descent}. We then show the existence (or absence) of \textit{(finite-norm) interpolation} of all four models. Our findings clarify how likelihood-based losses and model implementation jointly determine the feasibility of \textit{interpolation} and show that overparametrization should not be regarded as benign for survival models. All theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments that highlight the distinct generalization behaviors of survival models.


OceanForecastBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Data-Driven Global Ocean Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Global ocean forecasting aims to predict key ocean variables such as temperature, salinity, and currents, which is essential for understanding and describing oceanic phenomena. In recent years, data-driven deep learning-based ocean forecast models, such as XiHe, WenHai, LangYa and AI-GOMS, have demonstrated significant potential in capturing complex ocean dynamics and improving forecasting efficiency. Despite these advancements, the absence of open-source, standardized benchmarks has led to inconsistent data usage and evaluation methods. This gap hinders efficient model development, impedes fair performance comparison, and constrains interdisciplinary collaboration. To address this challenge, we propose OceanForecastBench, a benchmark offering three core contributions: (1) A high-quality global ocean reanalysis data over 28 years for model training, including 4 ocean variables across 23 depth levels and 4 sea surface variables. (2) A high-reliability satellite and in-situ observations for model evaluation, covering approximately 100 million locations in the global ocean. (3) An evaluation pipeline and a comprehensive benchmark with 6 typical baseline models, leveraging observations to evaluate model performance from multiple perspectives. OceanForecastBench represents the most comprehensive benchmarking framework currently available for data-driven ocean forecasting, offering an open-source platform for model development, evaluation, and comparison. The dataset and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/Ocean-Intelligent-Forecasting/OceanForecastBench.



Terrifying New Photos Emerge From the Jeffrey Epstein Estate

WIRED

The latest photo dump from Democrats in the House Oversight Committee includes more famous men and upsetting quotes written on a woman's body. Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform published additional photos they received from the estate of Jeffrey Epstein, the infamous financier and convicted sex offender. The release follows another one from last week, which committee Democrats said were pulled from a set of over 95,000 photos. The photos include more candid shots of powerful and famous men, including Google cofounder Sergey Brin, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, New York Times opinion columnist David Brooks, film director Woody Allen, professor and author Noam Chomsky, and Steve Bannon . The release did not include information about where or when the photos were taken.


Instacart settles Federal Trade Commission's claim it deceived US shoppers

Al Jazeera

Instacart settles Federal Trade Commission's claim it deceived US shoppers Instacart has agreed to pay $60m in refunds to settle allegations brought by the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC) that the online grocery delivery platform deceived consumers about its membership programme and free delivery offers. According to court documents filed in San Francisco on Thursday, Instacart's offer of "free delivery" for first orders was illusory because shoppers were charged other fees, the FTC alleged. "The FTC is focused on monitoring online delivery services to ensure that competitors are transparently competing on price and delivery terms," said Christopher Mufarrige, who leads the FTC's consumer protection work. An Instacart spokesperson said the company flatly denies any allegations of wrongdoing, but that the settlement allows the company to focus on shoppers and retailers. "We provide straightforward marketing, transparent pricing and fees, clear terms, easy cancellation, and generous refund policies -- all in full compliance with the law and exceeding industry norms," the spokesperson said.


China figured out how to sell EVs. Now it has to bury their batteries.

MIT Technology Review

China figured out how to sell EVs. Now it has to bury their batteries. As early electric cars age out, hundreds of thousands of used batteries are flooding the market, fueling a gray recycling economy even as Beijing and big manufacturers scramble to build a more orderly system. In August 2025, Wang Lei decided it was finally time to say goodbye to his electric vehicle. Wang, who is 39, had bought the car in 2016, when EVs still felt experimental in Beijing. It was a compact Chinese brand.


How America Gave China an Edge in Nuclear Power

The New Yorker

Though the two countries are now in a race to develop atomic technology, China's most advanced reactor was the result of collaboration with American scientists. This April, in a speech given at the Shanghai branch of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the physicist Xu Hongjie announced a breakthrough. For over a decade, his team had been working on an experimental nuclear reactor that runs on a lava-hot solution of fissile material and molten salt, rather than on solid fuel. The reactor, which went online two years ago, was a feat in itself. It is still the only one of its kind in operation in the world, and has the potential to be both safer and more efficient than the water-cooled nuclear plants that dominate the industry. Now, Xu explained, his team had been able to refuel the reactor without shutting it down, demonstrating a level of mastery over their new system. As dazzling as that was, the timing of Xu's speech also freighted the topic with geopolitical import. Only a few months earlier, DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial-intelligence company, had set alarms ringing through the U.S. tech world when it became clear that the relatively small Chinese startup, operating under U.S. export controls, had created a large language model that rivalled anything devised by the behemoths of Silicon Valley.


First-of-its-kind cosmic collision spotted 25 light-years from Earth

Popular Science

Astronomers initially thought the dramatic burst of light was a new exoplanet. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. What astronomers initially suspected to be a new exoplanet is actually a never-before-seen, head-on cosmic crash. As detailed in a study published today in the journal, researchers describe the aftermath of two separate collisions between two small, rocky cosmic objects called planetesimals . However, their findings were only made possible by some eagle eye imaging courtesy of the Hubble Space Telescope .


Sutton's predictions v Zambian rapper Sampa the Great

BBC News

Aston Villa have won nine games in a row in all competitions, but can they reach double figures by beating Manchester United on Sunday? Villa have gone behind in three of those games and haven't kept a clean sheet in their past four matches, said BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton. But they have been so attacking and Morgan Rogers is absolutely flying. They just never seem to lie down. Sutton is making predictions for all 380 Premier League games this season, against AI, BBC Sport readers and a variety of guests. For week 17, he takes on Zambian musician and rapper Sampa the Great. Sampa the Great's new single, Can't Hold Us, is out now and is included in the EAFC 26 video game. Do you agree with their scores?


AI Rewrites the Rules Of Phishing, Cybercrime

Communications of the ACM

It used to be just a sci-fi nightmare scenario, but today, AI phishing is real, and it's costing companies millions. We've already touched upon this one, but the Hong Kong phishing scam that targeted an employee at Arup deserves a deeper dive. The employee was tricked by deepfake versions of her CFO and colleagues into transferring HK 200 million across 15 transactions. The case has been widely reported and confirmed by the Hong Kong police. Every face and voice was AI-generated.