Shaping multi-megawatt loads, such as data centers, impacts generator dispatch on the electric grid, which in turn affects system CO2 emissions and energy cost. Substantiating the effectiveness of prevalent load shaping strategies, such as those based on grid-level average carbon intensity, locational marginal price, or marginal emissions, is challenging due to the lack of detailed counterfactual data required for accurate attribution. This study uses a series of calibrated granular ERCOT day-ahead direct current optimal power flow (DC-OPF) simulations for counterfactual analysis of a broad set of load shaping strategies on grid CO2 emissions and cost of electricity. In terms of annual grid level CO2 emissions reductions, LMP-based shaping outperforms other common strategies, but can be significantly improved upon. Examining the performance of practicable strategies under different grid conditions motivates a more effective load shaping approach: one that "cherry-picks" a daily strategy based on observable grid signals and historical data. The cherry-picking approach to power load shaping is applicable to any large flexible consumer on the electricity grid, such as data centers, distributed energy resources and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs).

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with interval-censored data. This type of data is common in survival analysis and time-to-event studies where exact event times are unobserved but fall within known intervals. Effective handling of such data is crucial in fields like medical research, reliability engineering, and social sciences. In this work, we introduce novel nonparametric boosting methods for regression and classification tasks with interval-censored data. Our approaches leverage censoring unbiased transformations to adjust loss functions and impute transformed responses while maintaining model accuracy. Implemented via functional gradient descent, these methods ensure scalability and adaptability. We rigorously establish their theoretical properties, including optimality and mean squared error trade-offs. Our proposed methods not only offer a robust framework for enhancing predictive accuracy in domains where interval-censored data are common but also complement existing work, expanding the applicability of existing boosting techniques. Empirical studies demonstrate robust performance across various finite-sample scenarios, highlighting the practical utility of our approaches.

Load balancing-the allocation of work across parallel resources to reduce delay, energy and cost-is a pervasive challenge in science and engineering, from large-scale simulation and data processing to cloud and manufacturing operations. Motivated by the emerging bottleneck in large language model (LLM) serving, we study a particularly stringent regime of load balancing that arises in barrier-synchronized, stateful systems: work cannot be freely migrated and progress is gated by the slowest participant at each step, so heterogeneity and temporal drift in workloads create persistent stragglers and substantial idle time. LLM serving under data-parallel decoding provides a prominent modern instance: in production traces, barrier-induced idle can exceed 40% of compute time per decode step. Here we develop a universal load-balancing principle, which admits a step-wise finite-horizon integer-optimization formulation and yields worst-case guarantees: across LLM decode models and a broader class of non-decreasing workload drift processes, it reduces long-run imbalance by a factor that grows with batch size and system scale. Extensive experiments corroborate the theory, showing substantial improvements in throughput and latency together with reductions in energy consumption. These results provide a general, theoretically grounded framework for load balancing, with immediate implications for sustainable LLM serving and broad relevance to other synchronization-gated resource-allocation problems.

This article presents the full, original record of the 2024 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) town hall, "Statistics in the Age of AI," which convened leading statisticians to discuss how the field is evolving in response to advances in artificial intelligence, foundation models, large-scale empirical modeling, and data-intensive infrastructures. The town hall was structured around open panel discussion and extensive audience Q&A, with the aim of eliciting candid, experience-driven perspectives rather than formal presentations or prepared statements. This document preserves the extended exchanges among panelists and audience members, with minimal editorial intervention, and organizes the conversation around five recurring questions concerning disciplinary culture and practices, data curation and "data work," engagement with modern empirical modeling, training for large-scale AI applications, and partnerships with key AI stakeholders. By providing an archival record of this discussion, the preprint aims to support transparency, community reflection, and ongoing dialogue about the evolving role of statistics in the data- and AI-centric future.

Transfer learning (TL) has emerged as a powerful tool for improving estimation and prediction performance by leveraging information from related datasets. In this paper, we repurpose the control-variates (CVS) method for TL in the context of scalar-on-function regression. Our proposed framework relies exclusively on dataset-specific summary statistics, avoiding the need to pool subject-level data and thus remaining applicable in privacy-restricted or decentralized settings. We establish theoretical connections among several existing TL strategies and derive convergence rates for our CVS-based proposals. These rates explicitly account for the typically overlooked smoothing error and reveal how the similarity among covariance functions across datasets influences convergence behavior. Numerical studies support the theoretical findings and demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve competitive estimation and prediction performance compared with existing alternatives.

Multimarginal optimal transport (MOT) has gained increasing attention in recent years, notably due to its relevance in machine learning and statistics, where one seeks to jointly compare and align multiple probability distributions. This paper presents a unified and complete Kantorovich duality theory for MOT problem on general Polish product spaces with bounded continuous cost function. For marginal compact spaces, the duality identity is derived through a convex-analytic reformulation, that identifies the dual problem as a Fenchel-Rockafellar conjugate. We obtain dual attainment and show that optimal potentials may always be chosen in the class of $c$-conjugate families, thereby extending classical two-marginal conjugacy principle into a genuinely multimarginal setting. In non-compact setting, where direct compactness arguments are unavailable, we recover duality via a truncation-tightness procedure based on weak compactness of multimarginal transference plans and boundedness of the cost. We prove that the dual value is preserved under restriction to compact subsets and that admissible dual families can be regularized into uniformly bounded $c$-conjugate potentials. The argument relies on a refined use of $c$-splitting sets and their equivalence with multimarginal $c$-cyclical monotonicity. We then obtain dual attainment and exact primal-dual equality for MOT on arbitrary Polish spaces, together with a canonical representation of optimal dual potentials by $c$-conjugacy. These results provide a structural foundation for further developments in probabilistic and statistical analysis of MOT, including stability, differentiability, and asymptotic theory under marginal perturbations.

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional treatment effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures square-root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

ARXIV PREPRINT 1 Attention-Based V ariational Framework for Joint and Individual Components Learning with Applications in Brain Network Analysis Yifei Zhang, Meimei Liu, and Zhengwu Zhang Abstract Brain organization is increasingly characterized through multiple imaging modalities, most notably structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC). Integrating these inherently distinct yet complementary data sources is essential for uncovering the cross-modal patterns that drive behavioral phenotypes. However, effective integration is hindered by the high dimensionality and non-linearity of connectome data, complex non-linear SC-FC coupling, and the challenge of disentangling shared information from modality-specific variations. To address these issues, we propose the Cross-Modal Joint-Individual Variational Network (CM-JIVNet), a unified probabilistic framework designed to learn factorized latent representations from paired SC-FC datasets. Our model utilizes a multi-head attention fusion module to capture non-linear cross-modal dependencies while isolating independent, modality-specific signals. V alidated on Human Connectome Project Y oung Adult (HCP-Y A) data, CM-JIVNet demonstrates superior performance in cross-modal reconstruction and behavioral trait prediction. By effectively disentangling joint and individual feature spaces, CM-JIVNet provides a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for large-scale multimodal brain analysis.

Large language models (LLMs) can be adapted to new tasks using parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods that modify only a small number of trainable parameters, often through low-rank updates. In this work, we adopt a quantum-information-inspired perspective to understand their effectiveness. From this perspective, low-rank parameterizations naturally correspond to low-dimensional Matrix Product States (MPS) representations, which enable entanglement-based characterizations of parameter structure. Thereby, we term and measure "Artificial Entanglement", defined as the entanglement entropy of the parameters in artificial neural networks (in particular the LLMs). We first study the representative low-rank adaptation (LoRA) PEFT method, alongside full fine-tuning (FFT), using LLaMA models at the 1B and 8B scales trained on the Tulu3 and OpenThoughts3 datasets, and uncover: (i) Internal artificial entanglement in the updates of query and value projection matrices in LoRA follows a volume law with a central suppression (termed as the "Entanglement Valley"), which is sensitive to hyper-parameters and is distinct from that in FFT; (ii) External artificial entanglement in attention matrices, corresponding to token-token correlations in representation space, follows an area law with logarithmic corrections and remains robust to LoRA hyper-parameters and training steps. Drawing a parallel to the No-Hair Theorem in black hole physics, we propose that although LoRA and FFT induce distinct internal entanglement signatures, such differences do not manifest in the attention outputs, suggesting a "no-hair" property that results in the effectiveness of low rank updates. We further provide theoretical support based on random matrix theory, and extend our analysis to an MPS Adaptation PEFT method, which exhibits qualitatively similar behaviors.

Apple could unveil Gemini-powered Siri in Feb. TikTok's US joint venture is off to a bumpy start. UpScrolled is seeing a surge in interest. TikTok's newly formed US entity is off to a very bumpy start. As the app continues to face technical issues affecting the recommendation algorithm, view counts and other features, TikTok is also seeing a wave of frustrated users uninstalling it, according to new data. Analytics firm Sensor Tower, which tracks downloads and other app store-related metrics, told CNBC that there has been a 150 percent rise in uninstalls of the TikTok app in the United States compared with the last three months.