Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended. These exposes highlight the need to identify when algorithms predict unintended quantities - ideally before deploying them into consequential settings. We propose a falsification framework that provides a principled statistical test for discriminant validity: the requirement that an algorithm predict intended outcomes better than impermissible ones. Drawing on falsification practices from causal inference, econometrics, and psychometrics, our framework compares calibrated prediction losses across outcomes to assess whether the algorithm exhibits discriminant validity with respect to a specified impermissible proxy. In settings where the target outcome is difficult to observe, multiple permissible proxy outcomes may be available; our framework accommodates both this setting and the case with a single permissible proxy. Throughout we use nonparametric hypothesis testing methods that make minimal assumptions on the data-generating process. We illustrate the method in an admissions setting, where the framework establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but fails to establish discriminant validity with respect to race. This demonstrates how falsification can serve as an early validity check, prior to fairness or robustness analyses. We also provide analysis in a criminal justice setting, where we highlight the limitations of our framework and emphasize the need for complementary approaches to assess other aspects of construct validity and external validity.

Task-oriented semantic communication (SemCom) prioritizes task execution over accurate symbol reconstruction and is well-suited to emerging intelligent applications. Cooperative multi-task SemCom (CMT-SemCom) further improves task execution performance. However, [1] demonstrates that cooperative multi-tasking can be either constructive or destructive. Moreover, the existing CMT-SemCom framework is not directly applicable to distributed multi-user scenarios, such as non-terrestrial satellite networks, where each satellite employs an individual semantic encoder. In this paper, we extend our earlier CMT-SemCom framework to distributed settings by proposing a federated learning (FL) based CMT-SemCom that enables cooperative multi-tasking across distributed users. Moreover, to address performance degradation caused by negative information transfer among heterogeneous tasks, we propose a semantic-aware task clustering method integrated in the FL process to ensure constructive cooperation based on an information-theoretic approach. Unlike common clustering methods that rely on high-dimensional data or feature space similarity, our proposed approach operates in the low-dimensional semantic domain to identify meaningful task relationships. Simulation results based on a LEO satellite network setup demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and performance gain over unclustered FL and individual single-task SemCom.

Data-driven methods for the solution of inverse problems have become widely popular in recent years thanks to the rise of machine learning techniques. A popular approach concerns the training of a generative model on additional data to learn a bespoke prior for the problem at hand. In this article we present an analysis for such problems by presenting quantitative error bounds for minimum Wasserstein-2 generative models for the prior. We show that under some assumptions, the error in the posterior due to the generative prior will inherit the same rate as the prior with respect to the Wasserstein-1 distance. We further present numerical experiments that verify that aspects of our error analysis manifests in some benchmarks followed by an elliptic PDE inverse problem where a generative prior is used to model a non-stationary field.

Unsupervised text segmentation is crucial because boundary labels are expensive, subjective, and often fail to transfer across domains and granularity choices. We propose Embed-KCPD, a training-free method that represents sentences as embedding vectors and estimates boundaries by minimizing a penalized KCPD objective. Beyond the algorithmic instantiation, we develop, to our knowledge, the first dependence-aware theory for KCPD under $m$-dependent sequences, a finite-memory abstraction of short-range dependence common in language. We prove an oracle inequality for the population penalized risk and a localization guarantee showing that each true change point is recovered within a window that is small relative to segment length. To connect theory to practice, we introduce an LLM-based simulation framework that generates synthetic documents with controlled finite-memory dependence and known boundaries, validating the predicted scaling behavior. Across standard segmentation benchmarks, Embed-KCPD often outperforms strong unsupervised baselines. A case study on Taylor Swift's tweets illustrates that Embed-KCPD combines strong theoretical guarantees, simulated reliability, and practical effectiveness for text segmentation.

We investigate the detection of weak complex-valued signals immersed in non-Gaussian, range-varying interference, with emphasis on maritime radar scenarios. The proposed methodology exploits a Complex-valued Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) trained exclusively on clutter-plus-noise to perform Out-Of-Distribution detection. By operating directly on in-phase / quadrature samples, the CVAE preserves phase and Doppler structure and is assessed in two configurations: (i) using unprocessed range profiles and (ii) after local whitening, where per-range covariance estimates are obtained from neighboring profiles. Using extensive simulations together with real sea-clutter data from the CSIR maritime dataset, we benchmark performance against classical and adaptive detectors (MF, NMF, AMF-SCM, ANMF-SCM, ANMF-Tyler). In both configurations, the CVAE yields a higher detection probability Pd at matched false-alarm rate Pfa, with the most notable improvements observed under whitening. We further integrate the CVAE with the ANMF through a weighted log-p fusion rule at the decision level, attaining enhanced robustness in strongly non-Gaussian clutter and enabling empirically calibrated Pfa control under H0. Overall, the results demonstrate that statistical normalization combined with complex-valued generative modeling substantively improves detection in realistic sea-clutter conditions, and that the fused CVAE-ANMF scheme constitutes a competitive alternative to established model-based detectors.

When developing clinical prediction models, it can be challenging to balance between global models that are valid for all patients and personalized models tailored to individuals or potentially unknown subgroups. To aid such decisions, we propose a diagnostic tool for contrasting global regression models and patient-specific (local) regression models. The core utility of this tool is to identify where and for whom a global model may be inadequate. We focus on regression models and specifically suggest a localized regression approach that identifies regions in the predictor space where patients are not well represented by the global model. As localization becomes challenging when dealing with many predictors, we propose modeling in a dimension-reduced latent representation obtained from an autoencoder. Using such a neural network architecture for dimension reduction enables learning a latent representation simultaneously optimized for both good data reconstruction and for revealing local outcome-related associations suitable for robust localized regression. We illustrate the proposed approach with a clinical study involving patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Our findings indicate that the global model is adequate for most patients but that indeed specific subgroups benefit from personalized models. We also demonstrate how to map these subgroup models back to the original predictors, providing insight into why the global model falls short for these groups. Thus, the principal application and diagnostic yield of our tool is the identification and characterization of patients or subgroups whose outcome associations deviate from the global model. Introduction In clinical research, conclusions about potential relationships between patient characteristics and outcomes often are based on regression models. More specifically, there might not be just some random variability across the parameters of patients, e.g. as considered in regression modeling with random effects (Pinheiro and Bates, 2000), but different regions in the space spanned by the patient characteristics might require different parameters. For example, the relation of some patient characteristics to the outcome might be more pronounced for older patients with high body weight, without having a corresponding pre-defined subgroup indicator. While sticking to a global model keeps interpretation simple and is beneficial in terms of statistical stability, it would at least be useful to have some diagnostic tool for judging the potential extent of deviations from the global model.

Recent advancements highlight the pivotal role of quantum machine learning (QML) [4, 13] in processing quantum data derived from quantum systems [14]. A fundamental task in QML is generating quantum data by learning the underlying distribution, essential for understanding quantum systems, synthesizing new samples, and advancing applications in quantum chemistry and materials science. However, extending classical generative approaches to quantum data presents significant challenges, as quantum distributions exhibit superposition, entanglement, and non-locality that classical models struggle to replicate efficiently. Quantum generative models such as quantum generative adversarial networks [24, 42] and quantum variational autoencoders [20, 38] can be used to prepare a fixed single quantum state [21, 28, 37], but are inefficient for generating ensembles of quantum states [3] due to the need for training deep parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs). The quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic model [40] offers a promising approach that employs intermediate training steps to smoothly interpolate between the target distribution and noise, thereby enabling efficient training.

Natural gradients have long been studied in deep reinforcement learning due to their fast convergence properties and covariant weight updates. However, computing natural gradients requires inversion of the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) at each iteration, which is computationally prohibitive in nature. In this paper, we present an efficient and scalable natural policy optimization technique that leverages a rank-1 approximation to full inverse-FIM. We theoretically show that under certain conditions, a rank-1 approximation to inverse-FIM converges faster than policy gradients and, under some conditions, enjoys the same sample complexity as stochastic policy gradient methods. We benchmark our method on a diverse set of environments and show that it achieves superior performance to standard actor-critic and trust-region baselines.

Wireframe parsing aims to recover line segments and their junctions to form a structured geometric representation useful for downstream tasks such as Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM). Existing methods predict lines and junctions separately and reconcile them post-hoc, causing mismatches and reduced robustness. We present Co-PLNet, a point-line collaborative framework that exchanges spatial cues between the two tasks, where early detections are converted into spatial prompts via a Point-Line Prompt Encoder (PLP-Encoder), which encodes geometric attributes into compact and spatially aligned maps. A Cross-Guidance Line Decoder (CGL-Decoder) then refines predictions with sparse attention conditioned on complementary prompts, enforcing point-line consistency and efficiency. Experiments on Wireframe and YorkUrban show consistent improvements in accuracy and robustness, together with favorable real-time efficiency, demonstrating our effectiveness for structured geometry perception.

Computation of confidence sets is central to data science and machine learning, serving as the workhorse of A/B testing and underpinning the operation and analysis of reinforcement learning algorithms. Among all valid confidence sets for the multinomial parameter, minimum-volume confidence sets (MVCs) are optimal in that they minimize average volume, but they are defined as level sets of an exact p-value that is discontinuous and difficult to compute. Rather than attempting to characterize the geometry of MVCs directly, this paper studies a practically motivated decision problem: given two observed multinomial outcomes, can one certify whether their MVCs intersect? We present a certified, tolerance-aware algorithm for this intersection problem. The method exploits the fact that likelihood ordering induces halfspace constraints in log-odds coordinates, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning of parameter space and computable lower and upper bounds on p-values over each cell. For three categories, this yields an efficient and provably sound algorithm that either certifies intersection, certifies disjointness, or returns an indeterminate result when the decision lies within a prescribed margin. We further show how the approach extends to higher dimensions. The results demonstrate that, despite their irregular geometry, MVCs admit reliable certified decision procedures for core tasks in A/B testing.