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Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference for Reliable LLM Responses
Noh, Kangjun, Lee, Seongchan, Kim, Ilmun, Song, Kyungwoo
Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI
Hessian Spectral Analysis at Foundation Model Scale
Granziol, Diego, Juarev, Khurshid
Accurate Hessian spectra of foundation models have remained out of reach, leading most prior work to rely on small models or strong structural approximations. We show that faithful spectral analysis of the true Hessian is tractable at frontier scale. Using shard-local finite-difference Hessian vector products compatible with Fully Sharded Data Parallelism, we perform stochastic Lanczos quadrature on open-source language models with up to 100B parameters, producing the first large-scale spectral density estimates beyond the sub-10B regime. We characterize the numerical behavior of this pipeline, including finite-difference bias, floating-point noise amplification, and their effect on Krylov stability in fp32 and bf16, and derive practical operating regimes that are validated empirically. We further provide end-to-end runtime and memory scaling laws, showing that full-operator spectral probing incurs only a modest constant-factor overhead over first-order training. Crucially, direct access to the Hessian reveals that widely used block-diagonal curvature approximations can fail catastrophically, exhibiting order-one relative error and poor directional alignment even in mid-scale LLMs. Together, our results demonstrate that foundation-model Hessian spectra are both computable and qualitatively misrepresented by prevailing approximations, opening the door to principled curvature-based analysis at scale.
Action-Free Offline-to-Online RL via Discretised State Policies
Neggatu, Natinael Solomon, Houssineau, Jeremie, Montana, Giovanni
Most existing offline RL methods presume the availability of action labels within the dataset, but in many practical scenarios, actions may be missing due to privacy, storage, or sensor limitations. We formalise the setting of action-free offline-to-online RL, where agents must learn from datasets consisting solely of $(s,r,s')$ tuples and later leverage this knowledge during online interaction. To address this challenge, we propose learning state policies that recommend desirable next-state transitions rather than actions. Our contributions are twofold. First, we introduce a simple yet novel state discretisation transformation and propose Offline State-Only DecQN (\algo), a value-based algorithm designed to pre-train state policies from action-free data. \algo{} integrates the transformation to scale efficiently to high-dimensional problems while avoiding instability and overfitting associated with continuous state prediction. Second, we propose a novel mechanism for guided online learning that leverages these pre-trained state policies to accelerate the learning of online agents. Together, these components establish a scalable and practical framework for leveraging action-free datasets to accelerate online RL. Empirical results across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our approach improves convergence speed and asymptotic performance, while analyses reveal that discretisation and regularisation are critical to its effectiveness.
Predicting and improving test-time scaling laws via reward tail-guided search
Li, Muheng, Qian, Jian, Mou, Wenlong
Test-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Though the straight-forward ''best-of-$N$'' (BoN) strategy has already demonstrated significant improvements in performance, it lacks principled guidance on the choice of $N$, budget allocation, and multi-stage decision-making, thereby leaving substantial room for optimization. While many works have explored such optimization, rigorous theoretical guarantees remain limited. In this work, we propose new methodologies to predict and improve scaling properties via tail-guided search. By estimating the tail distribution of rewards, our method predicts the scaling law of LLMs without the need for exhaustive evaluations. Leveraging this prediction tool, we introduce Scaling-Law Guided (SLG) Search, a new test-time algorithm that dynamically allocates compute to identify and exploit intermediate states with the highest predicted potential. We theoretically prove that SLG achieves vanishing regret compared to perfect-information oracles, and achieves expected rewards that would otherwise require a polynomially larger compute budget required when using BoN. Empirically, we validate our framework across different LLMs and reward models, confirming that tail-guided allocation consistently achieves higher reward yields than Best-of-$N$ under identical compute budgets. Our code is available at https://github.com/PotatoJnny/Scaling-Law-Guided-search.
Provably Data-driven Multiple Hyper-parameter Tuning with Structured Loss Function
Le, Tung Quoc, Nguyen, Anh Tuan, Nguyen, Viet Anh
Data-driven algorithm design automates hyperparameter tuning, but its statistical foundations remain limited because model performance can depend on hyperparameters in implicit and highly non-smooth ways. Existing guarantees focus on the simple case of a one-dimensional (scalar) hyperparameter. This leaves the practically important, multi-dimensional hyperparameter tuning setting unresolved. We address this open question by establishing the first general framework for establishing generalization guarantees for tuning multi-dimensional hyperparameters in data-driven settings. Our approach strengthens the generalization guarantee framework for semi-algebraic function classes by exploiting tools from real algebraic geometry, yielding sharper, more broadly applicable guarantees. We then extend the analysis to hyperparameter tuning using the validation loss under minimal assumptions, and derive improved bounds when additional structure is available. Finally, we demonstrate the scope of the framework with new learnability results, including data-driven weighted group lasso and weighted fused lasso.
Density-Informed Pseudo-Counts for Calibrated Evidential Deep Learning
Carlotti, Pietro, Gligić, Nevena, Farahi, Arya
Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations and behavior under distributional shift remain poorly understood. In this work, we provide a principled statistical interpretation by proving that EDL training corresponds to amortized variational inference in a hierarchical Bayesian model with a tempered pseudo-likelihood. This perspective reveals a major drawback: standard EDL conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to systematic overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. To address this, we introduce Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL), a new parametrization that decouples class prediction from the magnitude of uncertainty by separately estimating the conditional label distribution and the marginal covariate density. This separation preserves evidence in high-density regions while shrinking predictions toward a uniform prior for OOD data. Theoretically, we prove that DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration. Empirically, we show that our method enhances interpretability and improves robustness and uncertainty calibration under distributional shift.
Spectral Superposition: A Theory of Feature Geometry
Ivanov, Georgi, Oozeer, Narmeen, Raval, Shivam, Pejovic, Tasana, Upadhyay, Shriyash, Abdullah, Amir
Neural networks represent more features than they have dimensions via superposition, forcing features to share representational space. Current methods decompose activations into sparse linear features but discard geometric structure. We develop a theory for studying the geometric structre of features by analyzing the spectra (eigenvalues, eigenspaces, etc.) of weight derived matrices. In particular, we introduce the frame operator $F = WW^\top$, which gives us a spectral measure that describes how each feature allocates norm across eigenspaces. While previous tools could describe the pairwise interactions between features, spectral methods capture the global geometry (``how do all features interact?''). In toy models of superposition, we use this theory to prove that capacity saturation forces spectral localization: features collapse onto single eigenspaces, organize into tight frames, and admit discrete classification via association schemes, classifying all geometries from prior work (simplices, polygons, antiprisms). The spectral measure formalism applies to arbitrary weight matrices, enabling diagnosis of feature localization beyond toy settings. These results point toward a broader program: applying operator theory to interpretability.
Reinforcement Learning for Control Systems with Time Delays: A Comprehensive Survey
In the last decade, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in the control and decision-making of complex dynamical systems. However, most RL algorithms rely on the Markov Decision Process assumption, which is violated in practical cyber-physical systems affected by sensing delays, actuation latencies, and communication constraints. Such time delays introduce memory effects that can significantly degrade performance and compromise stability, particularly in networked and multi-agent environments. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of RL methods designed to address time delays in control systems. We first formalize the main classes of delays and analyze their impact on the Markov property. We then systematically categorize existing approaches into five major families: state augmentation and history-based representations, recurrent policies with learned memory, predictor-based and model-aware methods, robust and domain-randomized training strategies, and safe RL frameworks with explicit constraint handling. For each family, we discuss underlying principles, practical advantages, and inherent limitations. A comparative analysis highlights key trade-offs among these approaches and provides practical guidelines for selecting suitable methods under different delay characteristics and safety requirements. Finally, we identify open challenges and promising research directions, including stability certification, large-delay learning, multi-agent communication co-design, and standardized benchmarking. This survey aims to serve as a unified reference for researchers and practitioners developing reliable RL-based controllers in delay-affected cyber-physical systems.
SNAP: A Self-Consistent Agreement Principle with Application to Robust Computation
Jiang, Xiaoyi, Nienkötter, Andreas
Abstract--We introduce SNAP (Self-coNsistent Agreement Principle), a self-supervised framework for robust computation based on mutual agreement. Based on an Agreement-Reliability Hypothesis SNAP assigns weights that quantify agreement, emphasizing trustworthy items and downweighting outliers without supervision or prior knowledge. A key result is the Exponential Suppression of Outlier W eights, ensuring that outliers contribute negligibly to computations, even in high-dimensional settings. We study properties of SNAP weighting scheme and show its practical benefits on vector averaging and subspace estimation. Particularly, we demonstrate that non-iterative SNAP outperforms the iterative Weiszfeld algorithm and two variants of multivariate median of means. SNAP thus provides a flexible, easy-to-use, broadly applicable approach to robust computation. In many computational and machine learning tasks, multiple candidate solutions, model predictions, or observed entities are available. Some are reliable, while others are noisy or erroneous.
Finite and Corruption-Robust Regret Bounds in Online Inverse Linear Optimization under M-Convex Action Sets
We study online inverse linear optimization, also known as contextual recommendation, where a learner sequentially infers an agent's hidden objective vector from observed optimal actions over feasible sets that change over time. The learner aims to recommend actions that perform well under the agent's true objective, and the performance is measured by the regret, defined as the cumulative gap between the agent's optimal values and those achieved by the learner's recommended actions. Prior work has established a regret bound of $O(d\log T)$, as well as a finite but exponentially large bound of $\exp(O(d\log d))$, where $d$ is the dimension of the optimization problem and $T$ is the time horizon, while a regret lower bound of $Ω(d)$ is known (Gollapudi et al. 2021; Sakaue et al. 2025). Whether a finite regret bound polynomial in $d$ is achievable or not has remained an open question. We partially resolve this by showing that when the feasible sets are M-convex -- a broad class that includes matroids -- a finite regret bound of $O(d\log d)$ is possible. We achieve this by combining a structural characterization of optimal solutions on M-convex sets with a geometric volume argument. Moreover, we extend our approach to adversarially corrupted feedback in up to $C$ rounds. We obtain a regret bound of $O((C+1)d\log d)$ without prior knowledge of $C$, by monitoring directed graphs induced by the observed feedback to detect corruptions adaptively.