In sensitive applications involving relational datasets, protecting information about individual links from adversarial queries is of paramount importance. In many such settings, the available data are summarized solely through the degrees of the nodes in the network. We adopt the $β$ model, which is the prototypical statistical model adopted for this form of aggregated relational information, and study the problem of minimax-optimal parameter estimation under both local and central differential privacy constraints. We establish finite sample minimax lower bounds that characterize the precise dependence of the estimation risk on the network size and the privacy parameters, and we propose simple estimators that achieve these bounds up to constants and logarithmic factors under both local and central differential privacy frameworks. Our results provide the first comprehensive finite sample characterization of privacy utility trade offs for parameter estimation in $β$ models, addressing the classical graph case and extending the analysis to higher order hypergraph models. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on synthetic data and a real world communication network.

Recent progress has rapidly advanced our understanding of the mechanisms underlying in-context learning in modern attention-based neural networks. However, existing results focus exclusively on unimodal data; in contrast, the theoretical underpinnings of in-context learning for multi-modal data remain poorly understood. We introduce a mathematically tractable framework for studying multi-modal learning and explore when transformer-like architectures can recover Bayes-optimal performance in-context. To model multi-modal problems, we assume the observed data arises from a latent factor model. Our first result comprises a negative take on expressibility: we prove that single-layer, linear self-attention fails to recover the Bayes-optimal predictor uniformly over the task distribution. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel, linearized cross-attention mechanism, which we study in the regime where both the number of cross-attention layers and the context length are large. We show that this cross-attention mechanism is provably Bayes optimal when optimized using gradient flow. Our results underscore the benefits of depth for in-context learning and establish the provable utility of cross-attention for multi-modal distributions.

Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and control variate estimators (CVE) have been used in conjunction with known information across sketching algorithms and applications in machine learning. We prove that under certain conditions in an exponential family, an optimal CVE will achieve the same asymptotic variance as the MLE, giving an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the MLE. Experiments show the EM algorithm is faster and numerically stable compared to other root finding algorithms for the MLE for the bivariate Normal distribution, and we expect this to hold across distributions satisfying these conditions. We show how the EM algorithm leads to reproducibility for algorithms using MLE / CVE, and demonstrate how the EM algorithm leads to finding the MLE when the CV weights are known.

Modern systems, such as digital platforms and service systems, increasingly rely on contextual bandits for online decision-making; however, their deployment can inadvertently create unfair exposure among arms, undermining long-term platform sustainability and supplier trust. This paper studies the contextual bandit problem under a uniform $(1-δ)$-fairness constraint, and addresses its unique vulnerabilities to strategic manipulation. The fairness constraint ensures that preferential treatment is strictly justified by an arm's actual reward across all contexts and time horizons, using uniformity to prevent statistical loopholes. We develop novel algorithms that achieve (nearly) minimax-optimal regret for both linear and smooth reward functions, while maintaining strong $(1-\tilde{O}(1/T))$-fairness guarantees, and further characterize the theoretically inherent yet asymptotically marginal "price of fairness". However, we reveal that such merit-based fairness becomes uniquely susceptible to signal manipulation. We show that an adversary with a minimal $\tilde{O}(1)$ budget can not only degrade overall performance as in traditional attacks, but also selectively induce insidious fairness-specific failures while leaving conspicuous regret measures largely unaffected. To counter this, we design robust variants incorporating corruption-adaptive exploration and error-compensated thresholding. Our approach yields the first minimax-optimal regret bounds under $C$-budgeted attack while preserving $(1-\tilde{O}(1/T))$-fairness. Numerical experiments and a real-world case demonstrate that our algorithms sustain both fairness and efficiency.

Eldan's stochastic localization is a probabilistic construction that has proved instrumental to modern breakthroughs in high-dimensional geometry and the design of sampling algorithms. Motivated by sampling under non-Euclidean geometries and the mirror descent algorithm in optimization, we develop a functional generalization of Eldan's process that replaces Gaussian regularization with regularization by any positive integer multiple of a log-Laplace transform. We further give a mixing time bound on the Markov chain induced by our localization process, which holds if our target distribution satisfies a functional Poincaré inequality. Finally, we apply our framework to differentially private convex optimization in $\ell_p$ norms for $p \in [1, 2)$, where we improve state-of-the-art query complexities in a zeroth-order model.

TabPFN is a transformer that achieves state-of-the-art performance on supervised tabular tasks by amortizing Bayesian prediction into a single forward pass. However, there is currently no method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN. Because it behaves, in an idealised limit, as a Bayesian in-context learner, we cast the decomposition challenge as a Bayesian predictive inference (BPI) problem. The main computational tool in BPI, predictive Monte Carlo, is challenging to apply here as it requires simulating unmodeled covariates. We therefore pursue the asymptotic alternative, filling a gap in the theory for supervised settings by proving a predictive CLT under quasi-martingale conditions. We derive variance estimators determined by the volatility of predictive updates along the context. The resulting credible bands are fast to compute, target epistemic uncertainty, and achieve near-nominal frequentist coverage. For classification, we further obtain an entropy-based uncertainty decomposition.

Setting the learning rate for a deep learning model is a critical part of successful training, yet choosing this hyperparameter is often done empirically with trial and error. In this work, we explore a solvable model of optimal learning rate schedules for a powerlaw random feature model trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We consider the optimal schedule $η_T^\star(t)$ where $t$ is the current iterate and $T$ is the total training horizon. This schedule is computed both numerically and analytically (when possible) using optimal control methods. Our analysis reveals two regimes which we term the easy phase and hard phase. In the easy phase the optimal schedule is a polynomial decay $η_T^\star(t) \simeq T^{-ξ} (1-t/T)^δ$ where $ξ$ and $δ$ depend on the properties of the features and task. In the hard phase, the optimal schedule resembles warmup-stable-decay with constant (in $T$) initial learning rate and annealing performed over a vanishing (in $T$) fraction of training steps. We investigate joint optimization of learning rate and batch size, identifying a degenerate optimality condition. Our model also predicts the compute-optimal scaling laws (where model size and training steps are chosen optimally) in both easy and hard regimes. Going beyond SGD, we consider optimal schedules for the momentum $β(t)$, where speedups in the hard phase are possible. We compare our optimal schedule to various benchmarks in our task including (1) optimal constant learning rates $η_T(t) \sim T^{-ξ}$ (2) optimal power laws $η_T(t) \sim T^{-ξ} t^{-χ}$, finding that our schedule achieves better rates than either of these. Our theory suggests that learning rate transfer across training horizon depends on the structure of the model and task. We explore these ideas in simple experimental pretraining setups.

BA YESIAN PINNS FOR UNCERT AINTY-A W ARE INVERSE PROBLEMS (BPINN-IP) Ali MOHAMMAD-DJAF ARI ISCT, Bures-sur-Y vette, France Institute of Digital T win (IDT), EIT, Ningbo, China Dept. of Statistics, Central South University, Changcha, China ABSTRACT The main contribution of this paper is to develop a hierarchical Bayesian formulation of PINNs for linear inverse problems, which is called BPINN-IP . The proposed methodology extends PINN to account for prior knowledge on the nature of the expected NN output, as well as its weights. Also, as we can have access to the posterior probability distributions, naturally uncertainties can be quantified. Also, variational inference and Monte Carlo dropout are employed to provide predictive means and variances for reconstructed images. Un example of applications to deconvolution and super-resolution is considered, details of the different steps of implementations are given, and some preliminary results are presented.

Privacy preservation is a fundamental requirement in many high-stakes domains such as medicine and finance, where sensitive personal data must be analyzed without compromising individual confidentiality. At the same time, these applications often involve datasets with missing values due to non-response, data corruption, or deliberate anonymization. Missing data is traditionally viewed as a limitation because it reduces the information available to analysts and can degrade model performance. In this work, we take an alternative perspective and study missing data from a privacy preservation standpoint. Intuitively, when features are missing, less information is revealed about individuals, suggesting that missingness could inherently enhance privacy. We formalize this intuition by analyzing missing data as a privacy amplification mechanism within the framework of differential privacy. We show, for the first time, that incomplete data can yield privacy amplification for differentially private algorithms.

Information Bottleneck (IB) is widely used, but in deep learning, it is usually implemented through tractable surrogates, such as variational bounds or neural mutual information (MI) estimators, rather than directly controlling the MI I(X;Z) itself. The looseness and estimator-dependent bias can make IB "compression" only indirectly controlled and optimization fragile. We revisit the IB problem through the lens of information geometry and propose a \textbf{Geo}metric \textbf{I}nformation \textbf{B}ottleneck (\textbf{GeoIB}) that dispenses with mutual information (MI) estimation. We show that I(X;Z) and I(Z;Y) admit exact projection forms as minimal Kullback-Leibler (KL) distances from the joint distributions to their respective independence manifolds. Guided by this view, GeoIB controls information compression with two complementary terms: (i) a distribution-level Fisher-Rao (FR) discrepancy, which matches KL to second order and is reparameterization-invariant; and (ii) a geometry-level Jacobian-Frobenius (JF) term that provides a local capacity-type upper bound on I(Z;X) by penalizing pullback volume expansion of the encoder. We further derive a natural-gradient optimizer consistent with the FR metric and prove that the standard additive natural-gradient step is first-order equivalent to the geodesic update. We conducted extensive experiments and observed that the GeoIB achieves a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane than the mainstream IB baselines on popular datasets. GeoIB improves invariance and optimization stability by unifying distributional and geometric regularization under a single bottleneck multiplier. The source code of GeoIB is released at "https://anonymous.4open.science/r/G-IB-0569".