Two-sample testing, where we aim to determine whether two distributions are equal or not equal based on samples from each one, is challenging if we cannot place assumptions on the properties of the two distributions. In particular, certifying equality of distributions, or even providing a tight upper bound on the total variation (TV) distance between the distributions, is impossible to achieve in a distribution-free regime. In this work, we examine the blurred TV distance, a relaxation of TV distance that enables us to perform inference without assumptions on the distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees for distribution-free upper and lower bounds on the blurred TV distance, and examine its properties in high dimensions.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular technique for sample-efficient optimization of black-box functions. In many applications, the parameters being tuned come with a carefully engineered default configuration, and practitioners only want to deviate from this default when necessary. Standard BO, however, does not aim to minimize deviation from the default and, in practice, often pushes weakly relevant parameters to the boundary of the search space. This makes it difficult to distinguish between important and spurious changes and increases the burden of vetting recommendations when the optimization objective omits relevant operational considerations. We introduce BONSAI, a default-aware BO policy that prunes low-impact deviations from a default configuration while explicitly controlling the loss in acquisition value. BONSAI is compatible with a variety of acquisition functions, including expected improvement and upper confidence bound (GP-UCB). We theoretically bound the regret incurred by BONSAI, showing that, under certain conditions, it enjoys the same no-regret property as vanilla GP-UCB. Across many real-world applications, we empirically find that BONSAI substantially reduces the number of non-default parameters in recommended configurations while maintaining competitive optimization performance, with little effect on wall time.

Modern benchmarks such as HELM MMLU account for multiple metrics like accuracy, robustness and efficiency. When trying to turn these metrics into a single ranking, natural aggregation procedures can become incoherent or unstable to changes in the model set. We formalize this aggregation as a social choice problem where each metric induces a preference ranking over models on each dataset, and a benchmark operator aggregates these votes across metrics. While prior work has focused on Arrow's impossibility result, we argue that the impossibility often originates from pathological examples and identify sufficient conditions under which these disappear, and meaningful multi-criteria benchmarking becomes possible. In particular, we deal with three restrictions on the combinations of rankings and prove that on single-peaked, group-separable and distance-restricted preferences, the benchmark operator allows for the construction of well-behaved rankings of the involved models. Empirically, we investigate several modern benchmark suites like HELM MMLU and verify which structural conditions are fulfilled on which benchmark problems.

We give new differentially private algorithms for the classic problems of learning decision lists and large-margin halfspaces in the PAC and online models. In the PAC model, we give a computationally efficient algorithm for learning decision lists with minimal sample overhead over the best non-private algorithms. In the online model, we give a private analog of the influential Winnow algorithm for learning halfspaces with mistake bound polylogarithmic in the dimension and inverse polynomial in the margin. As an application, we describe how to privately learn decision lists in the online model, qualitatively matching state-of-the art non-private guarantees.

Shoe print evidence recovered from crime scenes plays a key role in forensic investigations. By examining shoe prints, investigators can determine details of the footwear worn by suspects. However, establishing that a suspect's shoes match the make and model of a crime scene print may not be sufficient. Typically, thousands of shoes of the same size, make, and model are manufactured, any of which could be responsible for the print. Accordingly, a popular approach used by investigators is to examine the print for signs of ``accidentals,'' i.e., cuts, scrapes, and other features that accumulate on shoe soles after purchase due to wear. While some patterns of accidentals are common on certain types of shoes, others are highly distinctive, potentially distinguishing the suspect's shoe from all others. Quantifying the rarity of a pattern is thus essential to accurately measuring the strength of forensic evidence. In this study, we address this task by developing a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our improvement over existing methods primarily stems from two advancements. First, we frame our approach in terms of a latent Gaussian model, thus enabling inference to be efficiently scaled to large collections of annotated shoe prints via integrated nested Laplace approximations. Second, we incorporate spatially varying coefficients to model the relationship between shoes' tread patterns and accidental locations. We demonstrate these improvements through superior performance on held-out data, which enhances accuracy and reliability in forensic shoe print analysis.

Understanding how the structure of language can be learned from sentences alone is a central question in both cognitive science and machine learning. Studies of the internal representations of Large Language Models (LLMs) support their ability to parse text when predicting the next word, while representing semantic notions independently of surface form. Yet, which data statistics make these feats possible, and how much data is required, remain largely unknown. Probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) provide a tractable testbed for studying these questions. However, prior work has focused either on the post-hoc characterization of the parsing-like algorithms used by trained networks; or on the learnability of PCFGs with fixed syntax, where parsing is unnecessary. Here, we (i) introduce a tunable class of PCFGs in which both the degree of ambiguity and the correlation structure across scales can be controlled; (ii) provide a learning mechanism -- an inference algorithm inspired by the structure of deep convolutional networks -- that links learnability and sample complexity to specific language statistics; and (iii) validate our predictions empirically across deep convolutional and transformer-based architectures. Overall, we propose a unifying framework where correlations at different scales lift local ambiguities, enabling the emergence of hierarchical representations of the data.

Standard attention stores keys/values losslessly but reads them via a per-head convex average, blocking channel-wise selection. We propose the Free Energy Mixer (FEM): a free-energy (log-sum-exp) read that applies a value-driven, per-channel log-linear tilt to a fast prior (e.g., from queries/keys in standard attention) over indices. Unlike methods that attempt to improve and enrich the $(q,k)$ scoring distribution, FEM treats it as a prior and yields a value-aware posterior read at unchanged complexity, smoothly moving from averaging to per-channel selection as the learnable inverse temperature increases, while still preserving parallelism and the original asymptotic complexity ($O(T^2)$ for softmax; $O(T)$ for linearizable variants). We instantiate a two-level gated FEM that is plug-and-play with standard and linear attention, linear RNNs and SSMs. It consistently outperforms strong baselines on NLP, vision, and time-series at matched parameter budgets.

We study online learning in two-player uninformed Markov games, where the opponent's actions and policies are unobserved. In this setting, Tian et al. (2021) show that achieving no-external-regret is impossible without incurring an exponential dependence on the episode length $H$. They then turn to the weaker notion of Nash-value regret and propose a V-learning algorithm with regret $O(K^{2/3})$ after $K$ episodes. However, their algorithm and guarantee do not adapt to the difficulty of the problem: even in the case where the opponent follows a fixed policy and thus $O(\sqrt{K})$ external regret is well-known to be achievable, their result is still the worse rate $O(K^{2/3})$ on a weaker metric. In this work, we fully address both limitations. First, we introduce empirical Nash-value regret, a new regret notion that is strictly stronger than Nash-value regret and naturally reduces to external regret when the opponent follows a fixed policy. Moreover, under this new metric, we propose a parameter-free algorithm that achieves an $O(\min \{\sqrt{K} + (CK)^{1/3},\sqrt{LK}\})$ regret bound, where $C$ quantifies the variance of the opponent's policies and $L$ denotes the number of policy switches (both at most $O(K)$). Therefore, our results not only recover the two extremes -- $O(\sqrt{K})$ external regret when the opponent is fixed and $O(K^{2/3})$ Nash-value regret in the worst case -- but also smoothly interpolate between these extremes by automatically adapting to the opponent's non-stationarity. We achieve so by first providing a new analysis of the epoch-based V-learning algorithm by Mao et al. (2022), establishing an $O(ηC + \sqrt{K/η})$ regret bound, where $η$ is the epoch incremental factor. Next, we show how to adaptively restart this algorithm with an appropriate $η$ in response to the potential non-stationarity of the opponent, eventually achieving our final results.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to large-scale learning, but they treat mini-batch gradients as unbiased estimators, which classical decision theory shows are inadmissible in high dimensions. We formulate gradient computation as a high-dimensional estimation problem and introduce a framework based on Stein-rule shrinkage. We construct a gradient estimator that adaptively contracts noisy mini-batch gradients toward a stable estimator derived from historical momentum. The shrinkage intensity is determined in a data-driven manner using an online estimate of gradient noise variance, leveraging statistics from adaptive optimizers. Under a Gaussian noise model, we show our estimator uniformly dominates the standard stochastic gradient under squared error loss and is minimax-optimal. We incorporate this into the Adam optimizer, yielding SR-Adam, a practical algorithm with negligible computational cost. Empirical evaluations on CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 across multiple levels of input noise show consistent improvements over Adam in the large-batch regime. Ablation studies indicate that gains arise primarily from selectively applying shrinkage to high-dimensional convolutional layers, while indiscriminate shrinkage across all parameters degrades performance. These results illustrate that classical shrinkage principles provide a principled approach to improving stochastic gradient estimation in deep learning.

Multivariate time series (MTS) anomaly diagnosis, which encompasses both anomaly detection and localization, is critical for the safety and reliability of complex, large-scale real-world systems. The vast majority of existing anomaly diagnosis methods offer limited theoretical insights, especially for anomaly localization, which is a vital but largely unexplored area. The aim of this contribution is to study the learning process of a Transformer when applied to MTS by revealing connections to statistical time series methods. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose the Attention Low-Rank Transformer (ALoRa-T) model, which applies low-rank regularization to self-attention, and we introduce the Attention Low-Rank score, effectively capturing the temporal characteristics of anomalies. Finally, to enable anomaly localization, we propose the ALoRa-Loc method, a novel approach that associates anomalies to specific variables by quantifying interrelationships among time series. Extensive experiments and real data analysis, show that the proposed methodology significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.