Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has been extensively applied across diverse domains, such as weather prediction and energy consumption. However, current studies still rely on the vanilla point-wise self-attention mechanism to capture cross-variable dependencies, which is inadequate in extracting the intricate cross-correlation implied between variables. To fill this gap, we propose Variable Correlation Transformer (VCformer), which utilizes Variable Correlation Attention (VCA) module to mine the correlations among variables. Specifically, based on the stochastic process theory, VCA calculates and integrates the cross-correlation scores corresponding to different lags between queries and keys, thereby enhancing its ability to uncover multivariate relationships. Additionally, inspired by Koopman dynamics theory, we also develop Koopman Temporal Detector (KTD) to better address the non-stationarity in time series. The two key components enable VCformer to extract both multivariate correlations and temporal dependencies. Our extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VCformer, achieving top-tier performance compared to other state-of-the-art baseline models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/CSyyn/VCformer.

Given a Large Language Model (LLM) generation, how can we identify which training data led to this generation? In this paper, we proposed RapidIn, a scalable framework adapting to LLMs for estimating the influence of each training data. The proposed framework consists of two stages: caching and retrieval. First, we compress the gradient vectors by over 200,000x, allowing them to be cached on disk or in GPU/CPU memory. Then, given a generation, RapidIn efficiently traverses the cached gradients to estimate the influence within minutes, achieving over a 6,326x speedup. Moreover, RapidIn supports multi-GPU parallelization to substantially accelerate caching and retrieval. Our empirical result confirms the efficiency and effectiveness of RapidIn.

Traffic flow prediction, a critical aspect of intelligent transportation systems, has been increasingly popular in the field of artificial intelligence, driven by the availability of extensive traffic data. The current challenges of traffic flow prediction lie in integrating diverse factors while balancing the trade-off between computational complexity and the precision necessary for effective long-range and large-scale predictions. To address these challenges, we introduce a Spatial-Temporal Selective State Space (ST-Mamba) model, which is the first to leverage the power of spatial-temporal learning in traffic flow prediction without using graph modeling. The ST-Mamba model can effectively capture the long-range dependency for traffic flow data, thereby avoiding the issue of over-smoothing. The proposed ST-Mamba model incorporates an effective Spatial-Temporal Mixer (ST-Mixer) to seamlessly integrate spatial and temporal data processing into a unified framework and employs a Spatial-Temporal Selective State Space (ST-SSM) block to improve computational efficiency. The proposed ST-Mamba model, specifically designed for spatial-temporal data, simplifies processing procedure and enhances generalization capabilities, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of long-range traffic flow prediction. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the proposed ST-Mamba model achieves a 61.11\% improvement in computational speed and increases prediction accuracy by 0.67\%. Extensive experiments with real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the \textsf{ST-Mamba} model sets a new benchmark in traffic flow prediction, achieving SOTA performance in computational efficiency for both long- and short-range predictions and significantly improving the overall efficiency and effectiveness of traffic management.

Chain of thought (CoT) has proven useful for problems requiring complex reasoning. Many of these problems are both textual and multimodal. Given the inputs in different modalities, a model generates a rationale and then uses it to answer a question. Because of the hallucination issue, the generated soft negative rationales with high textual quality but illogical semantics do not always help improve answer accuracy. This study proposes a rationale generation method using soft negative sampling (SNSE-CoT) to mitigate hallucinations in multimodal CoT. Five methods were applied to generate soft negative samples that shared highly similar text but had different semantics from the original. Bidirectional margin loss (BML) was applied to introduce them into the traditional contrastive learning framework that involves only positive and negative samples. Extensive experiments on the ScienceQA dataset demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method. Code and data are released at https://github.com/zgMin/SNSE-CoT.

Delay Differential Equations (DDEs) are a class of differential equations that can model diverse scientific phenomena. However, identifying the parameters, especially the time delay, that make a DDE's predictions match experimental results can be challenging. We introduce DDE-Find, a data-driven framework for learning a DDE's parameters, time delay, and initial condition function. DDE-Find uses an adjoint-based approach to efficiently compute the gradient of a loss function with respect to the model parameters. We motivate and rigorously prove an expression for the gradients of the loss using the adjoint. DDE-Find builds upon recent developments in learning DDEs from data and delivers the first complete framework for learning DDEs from data. Through a series of numerical experiments, we demonstrate that DDE-Find can learn DDEs from noisy, limited data.

We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting, a straightforward yet effective approach that generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This hybrid framework employs a convolutional neural network to estimate state-dependent weights to identify initial analog states that lead to shadowing target trajectories. The advantage of our method lies in its inherent interpretability, offering insights into initial-error-sensitive regions through estimated weights and the ability to trace the physically-based evolution of the system through analog forecasting. We evaluate our approach using the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble to forecast the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a seasonal-to-annual time scale. Results show a 10% improvement in forecasting equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies at 9-12 months leads compared to the original (unweighted) model-analog technique. Furthermore, our model demonstrates improvements in boreal winter and spring initialization when evaluated against a reanalysis dataset. Our approach reveals state-dependent regional sensitivity linked to various seasonally varying physical processes, including the Pacific Meridional Modes, equatorial recharge oscillator, and stochastic wind forcing. Additionally, disparities emerge in the sensitivity associated with El Ni\~no versus La Ni\~na events. El Ni\~no forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, while La Ni\~na forecasts are more sensitive to initial uncertainty in tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. This approach has broad implications for forecasting diverse climate phenomena, including regional temperature and precipitation, which are challenging for the original model-analog approach.

Evaluating house prices is crucial for various stakeholders, including homeowners, investors, and policymakers. However, traditional spatial interpolation methods have limitations in capturing the complex spatial relationships that affect property values. To address these challenges, we have developed a new method called Multi-Head Gated Attention for spatial interpolation. Our approach builds upon attention-based interpolation models and incorporates multiple attention heads and gating mechanisms to capture spatial dependencies and contextual information better. Importantly, our model produces embeddings that reduce the dimensionality of the data, enabling simpler models like linear regression to outperform complex ensembling models. We conducted extensive experiments to compare our model with baseline methods and the original attention-based interpolation model. The results show a significant improvement in the accuracy of house price predictions, validating the effectiveness of our approach. This research advances the field of spatial interpolation and provides a robust tool for more precise house price evaluation. Our GitHub repository.contains the data and code for all datasets, which are available for researchers and practitioners interested in replicating or building upon our work.

Accurately reconstructing the global ocean deoxygenation over a century is crucial for assessing and protecting marine ecosystem. Existing expert-dominated numerical simulations fail to catch up with the dynamic variation caused by global warming and human activities. Besides, due to the high-cost data collection, the historical observations are severely sparse, leading to big challenge for precise reconstruction. In this work, we propose OxyGenerator, the first deep learning based model, to reconstruct the global ocean deoxygenation from 1920 to 2023. Specifically, to address the heterogeneity across large temporal and spatial scales, we propose zoning-varying graph message-passing to capture the complex oceanographic correlations between missing values and sparse observations. Additionally, to further calibrate the uncertainty, we incorporate inductive bias from dissolved oxygen (DO) variations and chemical effects. Compared with in-situ DO observations, OxyGenerator significantly outperforms CMIP6 numerical simulations, reducing MAPE by 38.77%, demonstrating a promising potential to understand the "breathless ocean" in data-driven manner.

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now common. However, their forecasts for each individual series remain isolated, failing to account for the current state of its neighbouring series. Multivariate models like multivariate attention and graph neural networks can explicitly incorporate inter-series information, thus addressing the shortcomings of global models. However, these techniques exhibit quadratic complexity per timestep, limiting scalability. This paper introduces the Context Neural Network, an efficient linear complexity approach for augmenting time series models with relevant contextual insights from neighbouring time series without significant computational overhead. The proposed method enriches predictive models by providing the target series with real-time information from its neighbours, addressing the limitations of global models, yet remaining computationally tractable for large datasets.

Emerging Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) applications desire online prediction using deep neural network (DNN) models on mobile devices. However, due to the movement of devices, unfamiliar test samples constantly appear, significantly affecting the prediction accuracy of a pre-trained DNN. In addition, unstable network connection calls for local model inference. In this paper, we propose a light-weight scheme, called Anole, to cope with the local DNN model inference on mobile devices. The core idea of Anole is to first establish an army of compact DNN models, and then adaptively select the model fitting the current test sample best for online inference. The key is to automatically identify model-friendly scenes for training scene-specific DNN models. To this end, we design a weakly-supervised scene representation learning algorithm by combining both human heuristics and feature similarity in separating scenes. Moreover, we further train a model classifier to predict the best-fit scene-specific DNN model for each test sample. We implement Anole on different types of mobile devices and conduct extensive trace-driven and real-world experiments based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The results demonstrate that Anole outwits the method of using a versatile large DNN in terms of prediction accuracy (4.5% higher), response time (33.1% faster) and power consumption (45.1% lower).