Time series data in real-world scenarios contain a substantial amount of nonlinear information, which significantly interferes with the training process of models, leading to decreased prediction performance. Therefore, during the time series forecasting process, extracting the local and global time series patterns and understanding the potential nonlinear features among different time observations are highly significant. To address this challenge, we introduce multi-resolution convolution and deformable convolution operations. By enlarging the receptive field using convolution kernels with different dilation factors to capture temporal correlation information at different resolutions, and adaptively adjusting the sampling positions through additional offset vectors, we enhance the network's ability to capture potential nonlinear features among time observations. Building upon this, we propose ACNet, an adaptive convolutional network designed to effectively model the local and global temporal dependencies and the nonlinear features between observations in multivariate time series. Specifically, by extracting and fusing time series features at different resolutions, we capture both local contextual information and global patterns in the time series. The designed nonlinear feature adaptive extraction module captures the nonlinear features among different time observations in the time series. We evaluated the performance of ACNet across twelve real-world datasets. The results indicate that ACNet consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks with favorable runtime efficiency.

To some, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) promises better decision-making and increased military effectiveness while reducing the influence of human error and emotions. However, there is still debate about how AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), behave compared to humans in high-stakes military decision-making scenarios with the potential for increased risks towards escalation and unnecessary conflicts. To test this potential and scrutinize the use of LLMs for such purposes, we use a new wargame experiment with 107 national security experts designed to look at crisis escalation in a fictional US-China scenario and compare human players to LLM-simulated responses in separate simulations. Wargames have a long history in the development of military strategy and the response of nations to threats or attacks. Here, we show a considerable high-level agreement in the LLM and human responses and significant quantitative and qualitative differences in individual actions and strategic tendencies. These differences depend on intrinsic biases in LLMs regarding the appropriate level of violence following strategic instructions, the choice of LLM, and whether the LLMs are tasked to decide for a team of players directly or first to simulate dialog between players. When simulating the dialog, the discussions lack quality and maintain a farcical harmony. The LLM simulations cannot account for human player characteristics, showing no significant difference even for extreme traits, such as "pacifist" or "aggressive sociopath". Our results motivate policymakers to be cautious before granting autonomy or following AI-based strategy recommendations.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ushered in an era where AI-generated text is increasingly indistinguishable from human-generated content. Detecting AI-generated text has become imperative to combat misinformation, ensure content authenticity, and safeguard against malicious uses of AI. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid approach that combines traditional TF-IDF techniques with advanced machine learning models, including Bayesian classifiers, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Categorical Gradient Boosting (CatBoost), and 12 instances of Deberta-v3-large models. Our approach aims to address the challenges associated with detecting AI-generated text by leveraging the strengths of both traditional feature extraction methods and state-of-the-art deep learning models. Through extensive experiments on a comprehensive dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately distinguishing between human and AI-generated text. Our approach achieves superior performance compared to existing methods. This research contributes to the advancement of AI-generated text detection techniques and lays the foundation for developing robust solutions to mitigate the challenges posed by AI-generated content.

OpenAI, the developer of artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT, released a report on Thursday saying that a group based in China had used its technology for social media posts and other activities to attempt to influence public opinion on treated water released from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. "A few articles generated in late 2023 in English, Japanese, Chinese, Korean and Russian accused Japan of polluting Pacific waters with the discharge from the Fukushima nuclear plant -- a long-running theme of Chinese IO (influence operations)," it said. China and Japan have been at odds over the discharge of treated water from the plant into the Pacific Ocean that began last August, with Beijing imposing a ban on seafood imports from Japan following multiple releases of the water.

When bizarre and misleading answers to search queries generated by Google's new AI Overview feature went viral on social media last week, the company issued statements that generally downplayed the notion the technology had problems. Late Thursday, the company's head of search Liz Reid admitted the flubs had highlighted areas that needed improvement, writing that "we wanted to explain what happened and the steps we've taken." One saw Google's algorithms endorse eating rocks because doing so "can be good for you," and the other suggested using nontoxic glue to thicken pizza sauce. Rock eating is not a topic many people were ever writing or asking questions about online, so there aren't many sources for a search engine to draw on. According to Reid, the AI tool found an article from The Onion, a satirical website, that had been reposted by a software company, and misinterpreted the information as factual. As for Google telling its users to put glue on pizza, Reid effectively attributed the error to a sense of humor failure.

The recent embrace of machine learning (ML) in the development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) creates serious risks to geopolitical stability and the free exchange of ideas in AI research. This topic has received comparatively little attention of late compared to risks stemming from superintelligent artificial general intelligence (AGI), but requires fewer assumptions about the course of technological development and is thus a nearer-future issue. ML is already enabling the substitution of AWS for human soldiers in many battlefield roles, reducing the upfront human cost, and thus political cost, of waging offensive war. In the case of peer adversaries, this increases the likelihood of "low intensity" conflicts which risk escalation to broader warfare. In the case of non-peer adversaries, it reduces the domestic blowback to wars of aggression. This effect can occur regardless of other ethical issues around the use of military AI such as the risk of civilian casualties, and does not require any superhuman AI capabilities. Further, the military value of AWS raises the specter of an AI-powered arms race and the misguided imposition of national security restrictions on AI research. Our goal in this paper is to raise awareness among the public and ML researchers on the near-future risks posed by full or near-full autonomy in military technology, and we provide regulatory suggestions to mitigate these risks. We call upon AI policy experts and the defense AI community in particular to embrace transparency and caution in their development and deployment of AWS to avoid the negative effects on global stability and AI research that we highlight here.

The rapid advancement of neural language models has sparked a new surge of intelligent agent research. Unlike traditional agents, large language model-based agents (LLM agents) have emerged as a promising paradigm for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) due to their superior reasoning and generalization capabilities. Effective planning is crucial for the success of LLM agents in real-world tasks, making it a highly pursued topic in the community. Current planning methods typically translate tasks into executable action sequences. However, determining a feasible or optimal sequence for complex tasks at fine granularity, which often requires compositing long chains of heterogeneous actions, remains challenging. This paper introduces Meta-Task Planning (MTP), a zero-shot methodology for collaborative LLM-based multi-agent systems that simplifies complex task planning by decomposing it into a hierarchy of subordinate tasks, or meta-tasks. Each meta-task is then mapped into executable actions. MTP was assessed on two rigorous benchmarks, TravelPlanner and API-Bank. Notably, MTP achieved an average $\sim40\%$ success rate on TravelPlanner, significantly higher than the state-of-the-art (SOTA) baseline ($2.92\%$), and outperforming $LLM_{api}$-4 with ReAct on API-Bank by $\sim14\%$, showing the immense potential of integrating LLM with multi-agent systems.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have advanced spatiotemporal forecasting by leveraging relational inductive biases among sensors (or any other measuring scheme) represented as nodes in a graph. However, current methods often rely on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), leading to increased runtimes and memory use. Moreover, these methods typically operate within 1-hop neighborhoods, exacerbating the reduction of the receptive field. Causal Graph Processes (CGPs) offer an alternative, using graph filters instead of MLP layers to reduce parameters and minimize memory consumption. This paper introduces the Causal Graph Process Neural Network (CGProNet), a non-linear model combining CGPs and GNNs for spatiotemporal forecasting. CGProNet employs higher-order graph filters, optimizing the model with fewer parameters, reducing memory usage, and improving runtime efficiency. We present a comprehensive theoretical and experimental stability analysis, highlighting key aspects of CGProNet. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate CGProNet's superior efficiency, minimizing memory and time requirements while maintaining competitive forecasting performance.

This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022), which tested the approach for short- and medium-range weather prediction, and the work of Arcomano et al. (2023), which investigated its potential for climate modeling. The hybrid model used for the forecast experiments of the paper is based on the low-resolution, simplified parameterization atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) SPEEDY. In addition to the hybridized prognostic variables of SPEEDY, the current version of the model has three purely ML-based prognostic variables. One of these is 6~h cumulative precipitation, another is the sea surface temperature, while the third is the heat content of the top 300 m deep layer of the ocean. The model has skill in predicting the El Ni\~no cycle and its global teleconnections with precipitation for 3-7 months depending on the season. The model captures equatorial variability of the precipitation associated with Kelvin and Rossby waves and MJO. Predictions of the precipitation in the equatorial region have skill for 15 days in the East Pacific and 11.5 days in the West Pacific. Though the model has low spatial resolution, for these tasks it has prediction skill comparable to what has been published for high-resolution, purely physics-based, conventional operational forecast models.

Misinformation regarding climate change is a key roadblock in addressing one of the most serious threats to humanity. This paper investigates factual accuracy in large language models (LLMs) regarding climate information. Using true/false labeled Q&A data for fine-tuning and evaluating LLMs on climate-related claims, we compare open-source models, assessing their ability to generate truthful responses to climate change questions. We investigate the detectability of models intentionally poisoned with false climate information, finding that such poisoning may not affect the accuracy of a model's responses in other domains. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness of unlearning algorithms, fine-tuning, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for factually grounding LLMs on climate change topics. Our evaluation reveals that unlearning algorithms can be effective for nuanced conceptual claims, despite previous findings suggesting their inefficacy in privacy contexts. These insights aim to guide the development of more factually reliable LLMs and highlight the need for additional work to secure LLMs against misinformation attacks.