There has been a recent push of research on Transformer-based models for long-term time series forecasting, even though they are inherently difficult to interpret and explain. While there is a large body of work on interpretability methods for various domains and architectures, the interpretability of Transformer-based forecasting models remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we develop a framework based on Concept Bottleneck Models to enforce interpretability of time series Transformers. We modify the training objective to encourage a model to develop representations similar to predefined interpretable concepts. In our experiments, we enforce similarity using Centered Kernel Alignment, and the predefined concepts include time features and an interpretable, autoregressive surrogate model (AR). We apply the framework to the Autoformer model, and present an in-depth analysis for a variety of benchmark tasks. We find that the model performance remains mostly unaffected, while the model shows much improved interpretability. Additionally, interpretable concepts become local, which makes the trained model easily intervenable. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate a successful intervention in the scenario of a time shift in the data, which eliminates the need to retrain.

Initially, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) were employed for this task; however, their error accumulation issues led to the adoption of Transformers, leveraging attention mechanisms to mitigate these problems. Concurrently, the promising results of diffusion models in capturing original distributions have positioned them at the forefront of current research, often in conjunction with Transformers. In this paper, we propose replacing time-oriented Transformers with State-Space Models (SSM), which are better suited for temporal data modeling. Specifically, we utilize the latest SSM variant, S6, which incorporates attention-like mechanisms. By embedding S6 within Mamba blocks, we develop a model that integrates SSM, Graph Neural Networks, and node-oriented Transformers to achieve enhanced spatiotemporal representations. TIMBA achieves superior performance in almost all benchmark scenarios and performs comparably in others across a diverse range of missing value situations and three real-world datasets. We also evaluate how the performance of our model varies with different amounts of missing values and analyse its performance on downstream tasks. In addition, we provide the original code to replicate the results.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has highlighted the need for robust evaluation frameworks that assess their core capabilities, such as reasoning, knowledge, and commonsense, leading to the inception of certain widely-used benchmark suites such as the H6 benchmark. However, these benchmark suites are primarily built for the English language, and there exists a lack thereof for under-represented languages, in terms of LLM development, such as Thai. On the other hand, developing LLMs for Thai should also include enhancing the cultural understanding as well as core capabilities. To address these dual challenge in Thai LLM research, we propose two key benchmarks: Thai-H6 and Thai Cultural and Linguistic Intelligence Benchmark (ThaiCLI). Through a thorough evaluation of various LLMs with multi-lingual capabilities, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the proposed benchmarks and how they contribute to Thai LLM development. Furthermore, we will make both the datasets and evaluation code publicly available to encourage further research and development for Thai LLMs.

This paper investigates the limitations of transformers for entity-tracking tasks in large language models. We identify a theoretical constraint, showing that transformers require at least $\log_2 (n+1)$ layers to handle entity tracking with $n$ state changes. To address this issue, we propose an efficient and frugal enhancement to the standard attention mechanism, enabling it to manage long-term dependencies more efficiently. By considering attention as an adjacency matrix, our model can track entity states with a single layer. Empirical results demonstrate significant improvements in entity tracking datasets while keeping competitive performance on standard natural language modeling. Our modified attention allows us to achieve the same performance with drastically fewer layers. Additionally, our enhanced mechanism reveals structured internal representations of attention. Extensive experiments on both toy and complex datasets validate our approach. Our contributions include theoretical insights, an improved attention mechanism, and empirical validation.

Biological tree analysis serves as a pivotal tool in uncovering the evolutionary and differentiation relationships among organisms, genes, and cells. Its applications span diverse fields including phylogenetics, developmental biology, ecology, and medicine. Traditional tree inference methods, while foundational in early studies, face increasing limitations in processing the large-scale, complex datasets generated by modern high-throughput technologies. Recent advances in deep learning offer promising solutions, providing enhanced data processing and pattern recognition capabilities. However, challenges remain, particularly in accurately representing the inherently discrete and non-Euclidean nature of biological trees. In this review, we first outline the key biological priors fundamental to phylogenetic and differentiation tree analyses, facilitating a deeper interdisciplinary understanding between deep learning researchers and biologists. We then systematically examine the commonly used data formats and databases, serving as a comprehensive resource for model testing and development. We provide a critical analysis of traditional tree generation methods, exploring their underlying biological assumptions, technical characteristics, and limitations. Current developments in deep learning-based tree generation are reviewed, highlighting both recent advancements and existing challenges. Furthermore, we discuss the diverse applications of biological trees across various biological domains. Finally, we propose potential future directions and trends in leveraging deep learning for biological tree research, aiming to guide further exploration and innovation in this field.

Recent work on fact-checking addresses a realistic setting where models incorporate evidence retrieved from the web to decide the veracity of claims. A bottleneck in this pipeline is in retrieving relevant evidence: traditional methods may surface documents directly related to a claim, but fact-checking complex claims requires more inferences. For instance, a document about how a vaccine was developed is relevant to addressing claims about what it might contain, even if it does not address them directly. We present Contrastive Fact-Checking Reranker (CFR), an improved retriever for this setting. By leveraging the AVeriTeC dataset, which annotates subquestions for claims with human written answers from evidence documents, we fine-tune Contriever with a contrastive objective based on multiple training signals, including distillation from GPT-4, evaluating subquestion answers, and gold labels in the dataset. We evaluate our model on both retrieval and end-to-end veracity judgments about claims. On the AVeriTeC dataset, we find a 6\% improvement in veracity classification accuracy. We also show our gains can be transferred to FEVER, ClaimDecomp, HotpotQA, and a synthetic dataset requiring retrievers to make inferences.

Recently, the Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD) has been proposed as a framework for systematically inducing and learning distributions over structured objects, including combinatorial objects such as permutations and rankings, paths and matchings on a graph, etc. In this paper, we study the scalability of such models in the context of representing and learning distributions over routes on a map. In particular, we introduce the notion of a hierarchical route distribution and show how they can be leveraged to construct tractable PSDDs over route distributions, allowing them to scale to larger maps. We illustrate the utility of our model empirically, in a route prediction task, showing how accuracy can be increased significantly compared to Markov models.

We consider maximum likelihood estimation of linear dynamical systems with generalized-linear observation models. Maximum likelihood is typically considered to be hard in this setting since latent states and transition parameters must be inferred jointly. Given that expectation-maximization does not scale and is prone to local minima, moment-matching approaches from the subspace identification literature have become standard, despite known statistical efficiency issues. In this paper, we instead reconsider likelihood maximization and develop an optimization based strategy for recovering the latent states and transition parameters. Key to the approach is a two-view reformulation of maximum likelihood estimation for linear dynamical systems that enables the use of global optimization algorithms for matrix factorization. We show that the proposed estimation strategy outperforms widely-used identification algorithms such as subspace identification methods, both in terms of accuracy and runtime.

Time series forecasting is prevalent in extensive real-world applications, such as financial analysis and energy planning. Previous studies primarily focus on time series modality, endeavoring to capture the intricate variations and dependencies inherent in time series. Beyond numerical time series data, we notice that metadata (e.g. Inspired by this observation, we propose a Metadata-informed Time Series Transformer (MetaTST), which incorporates multiple levels of context-specific metadata into Transformer forecasting models to enable informative time series forecasting. To tackle the unstructured nature of metadata, MetaTST formalizes them into natural languages by pre-designed templates and leverages large language models (LLMs) to encode these texts into metadata tokens as a supplement to classic series tokens, resulting in an informative embedding. Further, a Transformer encoder is employed to communicate series and metadata tokens, which can extend series representations by metadata information for more accurate forecasting. This design also allows the model to adaptively learn context-specific patterns across various scenarios, which is particularly effective in handling large-scale, diverse-scenario forecasting tasks. Experimentally, MetaTST achieves state-of-the-art compared to advanced time series models and LLM-based methods on widely acknowledged short-and long-term forecasting benchmarks, covering both single-dataset individual and multi-dataset joint training settings. Time series forecasting is of increasing demand in real-world scenarios encompassing diverse domains, including energy, transportation, and meteorology (Weron, 2014; Lv et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2024b). Motivated by the substantial practical value, deep time series models have been widely explored and achieved significant advancements, where diverse techniques are developed to capture temporal variations from historical observations for future prediction (Salinas et al., 2020; Nie et al., 2023; Liu et al., 2024a; Dong et al., 2024). Despite the success in uncovering intricate temporal patterns, relying solely on the sequence of observation values can be insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Taking the example of traffic forecasting, two crossroads may exhibit similar patterns in the morning peak but will present disparate future trends due to the closing times of nearby companies.

We propose an Autoregressive (AR) Moving-average (MA) attention structure that can adapt to various linear attention mechanisms, enhancing their ability to capture long-range and local temporal patterns in time series. In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for the time series forecasting (TSF) task, the previously overlooked decoder-only autoregressive Transformer model can achieve results comparable to the best baselines when appropriate tokenization and training methods are applied. Moreover, inspired by the ARMA model from statistics and recent advances in linear attention, we introduce the full ARMA structure into existing autoregressive attention mechanisms. By using an indirect MA weight generation method, we incorporate the MA term while maintaining the time complexity and parameter size of the underlying efficient attention models. We further explore how indirect parameter generation can produce implicit MA weights that align with the modeling requirements for local temporal impacts. Experimental results show that incorporating the ARMA structure consistently improves the performance of various AR attentions on TSF tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results.