Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured via ground truth, remote sensing, or hybrid model methodologies. Here, we celebrate SST surveillance progress via the application of a few relevant technological advances from the late 20th and early 21st century. We further develop our existing water cycle observation framework, Flux to Flow (F2F), to fuse AMSR-E and MODIS into a higher resolution product with the goal of capturing gradients and filling cloud gaps that are otherwise unavailable. Our neural network architecture is constrained to a deep convolutional residual regressive neural network. We utilize three snapshots of twelve monthly SST measurements in 2010 as measured by the passive microwave radiometer AMSR-E, the visible and infrared monitoring MODIS instrument, and the in situ Argo dataset ISAS. The performance of the platform and success of this approach is evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. We determine that the 1:1 configuration of input and output data and a large observation region is too challenging for the single compute node and dcrrnn structure as is. When constrained to a single 100 x 100 pixel region and a small training dataset, the algorithm improves from the baseline experiment covering a much larger geography. For next discrete steps, we envision the consideration of a large input range with a very small output range. Furthermore, we see the need to integrate land and sea variables before performing computer vision tasks like those within. Finally, we see parallelization as necessary to overcome the compute obstacles we encountered.

When technical writer and former WWII pilot Jonathan Ferguson changed his gender in 1958, it made the news in Britain. I've imagined the moment many times since I first read about it in a paper called "Hacking the Cis-Tem" by scholar Mar Hicks. Ferguson's name change, according to the U.K.'s Daily Telegraph and Morning Post, was straightforward: someone took a pen and amended a line in the Official Register. In my imagination, it was a fountain pen and written with a flourish, and in that moment Ferguson felt truly seen after years of hiding his true identity. I'm embellishing, but I want it to have been simple and meaningful.

Long-term time series forecasting plays an important role in various real-world scenarios. Recent deep learning methods for long-term series forecasting tend to capture the intricate patterns of time series by decomposition-based or sampling-based methods. However, most of the extracted patterns may include unpredictable noise and lack good interpretability. Moreover, the multivariate series forecasting methods usually ignore the individual characteristics of each variate, which may affecting the prediction accuracy. To capture the intrinsic patterns of time series, we propose a novel deep learning network architecture, named Multi-resolution Periodic Pattern Network (MPPN), for long-term series forecasting. We first construct context-aware multi-resolution semantic units of time series and employ multi-periodic pattern mining to capture the key patterns of time series. Then, we propose a channel adaptive module to capture the perceptions of multivariate towards different patterns. In addition, we present an entropy-based method for evaluating the predictability of time series and providing an upper bound on the prediction accuracy before forecasting. Our experimental evaluation on nine real-world benchmarks demonstrated that MPPN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art Transformer-based, decomposition-based and sampling-based methods for long-term series forecasting.

In robotics, an end effector is a device at the end of a robotic arm that is designed to physically interact with objects in the environment or with the environment itself. Effectively, it serves as the hand of the robot, carrying out tasks on behalf of humans. But could we turn this concept on its head and consider using living organisms themselves as end effectors? This paper introduces a novel idea of using whole living organisms as end effectors for robotics. We showcase this by demonstrating that pill bugs and chitons -- types of small, harmless creatures -- can be utilized as functional grippers. Crucially, this method does not harm these creatures, enabling their release back into nature after use. How this concept may be expanded to other organisms and applications is also discussed.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature Our key motivation comes from a novel dynamical Ising-like engineering for time series modeling and propose model, the spin-gas Glauber dynamics, originated from a a feature programming framework. This newly debuted gas-like interaction that includes momentum framework generates large amounts of predictive and acceleration information. By using spin-gas Glauber features for noisy multivariate time series while dynamics as the fundamental model for time series generating allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias processes at the smallest time scale, we explore the with minimal effort. The key motivation of our potential of treating time series as the path-sum of infinitesimal framework is to view any multivariate time series increments generated by a series of Markovian coin as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory tosses following the spin-gas Glauber dynamics. From such increments, with each increment governed by a a fine-grained perspective, a set of operators is motivated for novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Visual and linguistic concepts naturally organize themselves in a hierarchy, where a textual concept "dog" entails all images that contain dogs. Despite being intuitive, current large-scale vision and language models such as CLIP do not explicitly capture such hierarchy. We propose MERU, a contrastive model that yields hyperbolic representations of images and text. Hyperbolic spaces have suitable geometric properties to embed tree-like data, so MERU can better capture the underlying hierarchy in image-text datasets. Our results show that MERU learns a highly interpretable and structured representation space while being competitive with CLIP's performance on standard multi-modal tasks like image classification and image-text retrieval.

It has always been an important yet challenging problem to control language models to avoid generating texts with undesirable attributes, such as toxic language and unnatural repetition. We introduce Click for controllable text generation, which needs no modification to the model architecture and facilitates out-of-the-box use of trained models. It employs a contrastive loss on sequence likelihood, which fundamentally decreases the generation probability of negative samples (i.e., generations with undesirable attributes). It also adopts a novel likelihood ranking-based strategy to construct contrastive samples from model generations. On the tasks of language detoxification, sentiment steering, and repetition reduction, we show that Click outperforms strong baselines of controllable text generation and demonstrate the superiority of Click's sample construction strategy.

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into categories of software, hardware, and sociopolitical factors. No step is guaranteed: For each step, we estimate a probability of success by 2043, conditional on prior steps being achieved. Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. Thoughtfully applying the cascading conditional probability approach to this question yields lower probability values than is often supposed. This framework helps enumerate the many future scenarios where humanity makes partial but incomplete progress toward transformative AGI.

Pragmatic reference enables efficient interpersonal communication. Prior work uses simple reference games to test models of pragmatic reasoning, often with unidentified speakers and listeners. In practice, however, speakers' sociocultural background shapes their pragmatic assumptions. For example, readers of this paper assume NLP refers to "Natural Language Processing," and not "Neuro-linguistic Programming." This work introduces the Cultural Codes dataset, which operationalizes sociocultural pragmatic inference in a simple word reference game. Cultural Codes is based on the multi-turn collaborative two-player game, Codenames Duet. Our dataset consists of 794 games with 7,703 turns, distributed across 153 unique players. Alongside gameplay, we collect information about players' personalities, values, and demographics. Utilizing theories of communication and pragmatics, we predict each player's actions via joint modeling of their sociocultural priors and the game context. Our experiments show that accounting for background characteristics significantly improves model performance for tasks related to both clue giving and guessing, indicating that sociocultural priors play a vital role in gameplay decisions.