Counterfactual reasoning typically involves considering alternatives to actual events. While often applied to understand past events, a distinct form-forward counterfactual reasoning-focuses on anticipating plausible future developments. This type of reasoning is invaluable in dynamic financial markets, where anticipating market developments can powerfully unveil potential risks and opportunities for stakeholders, guiding their decision-making. However, performing this at scale is challenging due to the cognitive demands involved, underscoring the need for automated solutions. LLMs offer promise, but remain unexplored for this application. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark, FIN-FORCE-FINancial FORward Counterfactual Evaluation. By curating financial news headlines and providing structured evaluation, FIN-FORCE supports LLM based forward counterfactual generation. This paves the way for scalable and automated solutions for exploring and anticipating future market developments, thereby providing structured insights for decision-making. Through experiments on FIN-FORCE, we evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs and counterfactual generation methods, analyzing their limitations and proposing insights for future research. We release the benchmark, supplementary data and all experimental codes at the following link: https://github.com/keanepotato/fin_force

Arctic warming threatens over $100 billion in permafrost-dependent infrastructure across Northern territories, yet existing risk assessment frameworks lack spatiotemporal validation, uncertainty quantification, and operational decision-support capabilities. W e present a hybrid physics-machine learning framework integrating 2.9 million observations from 171,605 locations (2005-2021) combining permafrost fraction data with climate reanalysis. Our stacked ensemble model (Random F orest + Histogram Gradient Boosting + Elastic Net) achieves R=0.980 (RMSE=5.01 pp) with rigorous spatiotemporal cross-validation preventing data leakage. T o address machine learning limitations in extrapolative climate scenarios, we develop a hybrid approach combining learned climate-permafrost relationships (60%) with physical permafrost sensitivity models (40%, -10 pp/C). Under RCP8.5 forcing (+5C over 10 years), we project mean permafrost fraction decline of -20.3 pp (median: -20.0 pp), with 51.5% of Arctic Russia experiencing over 20 percentage point loss. Infrastructure risk classification identifies 15% high-risk zones (25% medium-risk) with spatially explicit uncertainty maps. Our framework represents the largest validated permafrost ML dataset globally, provides the first operational hybrid physics-ML forecasting system for Arctic infrastructure, and delivers open-source tools enabling probabilistic permafrost projections for engineering design codes and climate adaptation planning. The methodology is generalizable to other permafrost regions and demonstrates how hybrid approaches can overcome pure data-driven limitations in climate change applications.

We study the problem of determining whether a piece of text has been authored by a human or by a large language model (LLM). Existing state of the art logits-based detectors make use of statistics derived from the log-probability of the observed text evaluated using the distribution function of a given source LLM. However, relying solely on log probabilities can be sub-optimal. In response, we introduce AdaDetectGPT -- a novel classifier that adaptively learns a witness function from training data to enhance the performance of logits-based detectors. We provide statistical guarantees on its true positive rate, false positive rate, true negative rate and false negative rate. Extensive numerical studies show AdaDetectGPT nearly uniformly improves the state-of-the-art method in various combination of datasets and LLMs, and the improvement can reach up to 58%. A python implementation of our method is available at https://github.com/Mamba413/AdaDetectGPT.

Abstract--Although existing cross-domain continual learning approaches successfully address many streaming tasks having domain shifts, they call for a fully labeled source domain hindering their feasibility in the privacy constrained environments. This paper goes one step ahead with the problem of source-free cross-domain continual learning where the use of source-domain samples are completely prohibited. We propose the idea of rehearsal-free frequency-aware dynamic prompt collaborations (REFEREE) to cope with the absence of labeled source-domain samples in realm of cross-domain continual learning. REFEREE is built upon a synergy between a source-pre-trained model and a large-scale vision-language model, thus overcoming the problem of sub-optimal generalizations when relying only on a source pre-trained model. The domain shift problem between the source domain and the target domain is handled by a frequency-aware prompting technique encouraging low-frequency components while suppressing high-frequency components. This strategy generates frequency-aware augmented samples, robust against noisy pseudo labels. The noisy pseudo-label problem is further addressed with the uncertainty-aware weighting strategy where the mean and covariance matrix are weighted by prediction uncertainties, thus mitigating the adverse effects of the noisy pseudo label. Besides, the issue of catastrophic forgetting (CF) is overcome by kernel linear discriminant analysis (KLDA) where the backbone network is frozen while the classification is performed using the linear discriminant analysis approach guided by the random kernel method. Our rigorous numerical studies confirm the advantage of our approach where it beats prior arts having access to source domain samples with significant margins. HE goal of continual learning (CL) is to deal with lifelong learning environments where a sequence of non-stationary tasks is observed.

Efficient molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is vital for understanding atomic-scale processes in materials science and biophysics. Traditional density functional theory (DFT) methods are computationally expensive, which limits the feasibility of long-term simulations. We propose a novel approach that formulates MD simulation as a time-series forecasting problem, enabling advanced forecasting models to predict atomic trajectories via displacements rather than absolute positions. We incorporate a physics-informed loss and inference mechanism based on DFT-parametrised pair-wise Morse potential functions that penalize unphysical atomic proximity to enforce physical plausibility. Our method consistently surpasses standard baselines in simulation accuracy across diverse materials. The results highlight the importance of incorporating physics knowledge to enhance the reliability and precision of atomic trajectory forecasting. Remarkably, it enables stable modeling of thousands of MD steps in minutes, offering a scalable alternative to costly DFT simulations.

As a developing country, Fiji is facing rapid urbanisation, which is visible in the massive development projects that include housing, roads, and civil works. In this study, we present machine learning and remote sensing frameworks to compare land use and land cover change from 2013 to 2024 in Nadi, Fiji. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide technical support in land cover/land use modelling and change detection. We used Landsat-8 satellite image for the study region and created our training dataset with labels for supervised machine learning. We used Google Earth Engine and unsupervised machine learning via k-means clustering to generate the land cover map. We used convolutional neural networks to classify the selected regions' land cover types. We present a visualisation of change detection, highlighting urban area changes over time to monitor changes in the map.

Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.