Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from rescaling low-resolution climate models. We propose a statistical approach, called NN-GPR, using Gaussian process regression (GPR) with an infinitely wide deep neural network based covariance function. NN-GPR requires no assumptions about the relationships between models, no interpolation to a common grid, no stationarity assumptions, and automatically downscales as part of its prediction algorithm. Model experiments show that NN-GPR can be highly skillful at surface temperature and precipitation forecasting by preserving geospatial signals at multiple scales and capturing inter-annual variability. Our projections particularly show improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification skill in regions of high variability, which allows us to cheaply assess tail behavior at a 0.44$^\circ$/50 km spatial resolution without a regional climate model (RCM). Evaluations on reanalysis data and SSP245 forced climate models show that NN-GPR produces similar, overall climatologies to the model ensemble while better capturing fine scale spatial patterns. Finally, we compare NN-GPR's regional predictions against two RCMs and show that NN-GPR can rival the performance of RCMs using only global model data as input.

When is it a bad idea to bet on the future? First, we're seeing massive shifts in customer behavior during the pandemic -- behaviors that look likely to last. Second, the emergence of Millennials and Gen Z as significant market segments suggest that those new behaviors are just the beginning. Third, and most importantly, the big guys of digital -- Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft -- are all placing big bets that threaten to reshape the landscape for every business in due time. So, maybe a better question is "How can you bet on the future to win?" We'll take a look at who's leading the way towards the future, some useful frameworks for how to think about betting on the future, and how to place smart bets for your business… bets that you can win. Here are the show notes for you. Here are the regular show notes detailing links and news related to this week's episode.

Reusing previously trained models is critical in deep reinforcement learning to speed up training of new agents. However, it is unclear how to acquire new skills when objectives and constraints are in conflict with previously learned skills. Moreover, when retraining, there is an intrinsic conflict between exploiting what has already been learned and exploring new skills. In soft actor-critic (SAC) methods, a temperature parameter can be dynamically adjusted to weight the action entropy and balance the explore $\times$ exploit trade-off. However, controlling a single coefficient can be challenging within the context of retraining, even more so when goals are contradictory. In this work, inspired by neuroscience research, we propose a novel approach using inhibitory networks to allow separate and adaptive state value evaluations, as well as distinct automatic entropy tuning. Ultimately, our approach allows for controlling inhibition to handle conflict between exploiting less risky, acquired behaviors and exploring novel ones to overcome more challenging tasks. We validate our method through experiments in OpenAI Gym environments.

Language Models (LMs) often cannot be deployed because of their potential to harm users in hard-to-predict ways. Prior work identifies harmful behaviors before deployment by using human annotators to hand-write test cases. However, human annotation is expensive, limiting the number and diversity of test cases. In this work, we automatically find cases where a target LM behaves in a harmful way, by generating test cases ("red teaming") using another LM. We evaluate the target LM's replies to generated test questions using a classifier trained to detect offensive content, uncovering tens of thousands of offensive replies in a 280B parameter LM chatbot. We explore several methods, from zero-shot generation to reinforcement learning, for generating test cases with varying levels of diversity and difficulty. Furthermore, we use prompt engineering to control LM-generated test cases to uncover a variety of other harms, automatically finding groups of people that the chatbot discusses in offensive ways, personal and hospital phone numbers generated as the chatbot's own contact info, leakage of private training data in generated text, and harms that occur over the course of a conversation. Overall, LM-based red teaming is one promising tool (among many needed) for finding and fixing diverse, undesirable LM behaviors before impacting users.

To certify UAV operations in populated areas, risk mitigation strategies -- such as Emergency Landing (EL) -- must be in place to account for potential failures. EL aims at reducing ground risk by finding safe landing areas using on-board sensors. The first contribution of this paper is to present a new EL approach, in line with safety requirements introduced in recent research. In particular, the proposed EL pipeline includes mechanisms to monitor learning based components during execution. This way, another contribution is to study the behavior of Machine Learning Runtime Monitoring (MLRM) approaches within the context of a real-world critical system. A new evaluation methodology is introduced, and applied to assess the practical safety benefits of three MLRM mechanisms. The proposed approach is compared to a default mitigation strategy (open a parachute when a failure is detected), and appears to be much safer.

Artificial intelligence (AI) features are increasingly being embedded in cars and are central to the operation of self-driving cars (SDC). There is little or no effort expended towards understanding and assessing the broad legal and regulatory impact of the decisions made by AI in cars. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to determine the perceived barriers, benefits and facilitating factors of SDC in order to help us understand the suitability and limitations of existing and proposed law and regulation. (1) existing and proposed laws are largely based on claimed benefits of SDV that are still mostly speculative and untested; (2) while publicly presented as issues of assigning blame and identifying who pays where the SDC is involved in an accident, the barriers broadly intersect with almost every area of society, laws and regulations; and (3) new law and regulation are most frequently identified as the primary factor for enabling SDC. Research on assessing the impact of AI in SDC needs to be broadened beyond negligence and liability to encompass barriers, benefits and facilitating factors identified in this paper. Results of this paper are significant in that they point to the need for deeper comprehension of the broad impact of all existing law and regulations on the introduction of SDC technology, with a focus on identifying only those areas truly requiring ongoing legislative attention.

The aim of this paper is to discuss a recent result which shows that probabilistic inference in the presence of (unknown) causal mechanisms can be tractable for models that have traditionally been viewed as intractable. This result was reported recently in [15] to facilitate model-based supervised learning but it can be interpreted in a causality context as follows. One can compile a non-parametric causal graph into an arithmetic circuit that supports inference in time linear in the circuit size. The circuit is also non-parametric so it can be used to estimate parameters from data and to further reason (in linear time) about the causal graph parametrized by these estimates. Moreover, the circuit size can sometimes be bounded even when the treewidth of the causal graph is not, leading to tractable inference on models that have been deemed intractable previously. This has been enabled by a new technique that can exploit causal mechanisms computationally but without needing to know their identities (the classical setup in causal inference). Our goal is to provide a causality-oriented exposure to these new results and to speculate on how they may potentially contribute to more scalable and versatile causal inference.

Autonomous robots and vehicles are expected to soon become an integral part of our environment. Unsatisfactory issues regarding interaction with existing road users, performance in mixed-traffic areas and lack of interpretable behavior remain key obstacles. To address these, we present a physics-based neural network, based on a hybrid approach combining a social force model extended by group force (SFMG) with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to predict pedestrian trajectories considering its interaction with static obstacles, other pedestrians and pedestrian groups. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the model with respect to realistic prediction, prediction performance and prediction "interpretability". Initial results suggest, the model even when solely trained on a synthetic dataset, can predict realistic and interpretable trajectories with better than state-of-the-art accuracy.

Duran Duran Connects Trees to Their NFTs As Part of Initiative To Start New Micro Forests Around the World Living Trees Traceable on the Blockchain In yet another world-first, legendary British rock band, Duran Duran, has this week announced a unique project that will connect NFTs to newly-planted, native trees in New Zealand as part of an initiative to start new micro forests around the world. Duran Duran will kick-off this ambitious initiative by gifting the digital owners of the existing "INVISIBLE" NFT collection, which was released last year in support of the band's 15th studio album: FUTURE PAST. Each of the 100 people who purchased one of the "INVISIBLE" NFTs will receive a brand-new eco-friendly NFT featuring a themed artwork designed by Huxley, the AI artist with whom the band collaborated on their "INVISIBLE" music video and NFT artworks. Along with the NFT, a living tree will be planted in Jardine Park, Queenstown, New Zealand, in the person's name. Each new tree will be traceable on the blockchain via the corresponding NFT.

What do we talk about when we talk about AI ethics? Just like AI itself, definitions for AI ethics seem to abound. A definition that seems to have garnered some consensus is that AI ethics is a system of moral principles and techniques intended to inform the development and responsible use of artificial intelligence technologies. If this definition seems ambiguous to you, you aren't alone. There is an array of issues that people tend to associate with the term "AI ethics," ranging from bias in algorithms, to the asymmetrical or unlawful use of AI, environmental impact of AI technology and national and international policies around it.