Selecting the right set of hyperparameters is crucial in time series forecasting. The classical temporal cross-validation framework for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) often leads to poor test performance because of a possible mismatch between validation and test periods. To address this test-validation mismatch, we propose a novel technique, H-Pro to drive HPO via test proxies by exploiting data hierarchies often associated with time series datasets. Since higher-level aggregated time series often show less irregularity and better predictability as compared to the lowest-level time series which can be sparse and intermittent, we optimize the hyperparameters of the lowest-level base-forecaster by leveraging the proxy forecasts for the test period generated from the forecasters at higher levels. H-Pro can be applied on any off-the-shelf machine learning model to perform HPO. We validate the efficacy of our technique with extensive empirical evaluation on five publicly available hierarchical forecasting datasets. Our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in Tourism, Wiki, and Traffic datasets, and achieves competitive result in Tourism-L dataset, without any model-specific enhancements. Moreover, our method outperforms the winning method of the M5 forecast accuracy competition.

Measuring the semantic similarity between two sentences is still an important task. The word mover's distance (WMD) computes the similarity via the optimal alignment between the sets of word embeddings. However, WMD does not utilize word order, making it challenging to distinguish sentences with significant overlaps of similar words, even if they are semantically very different. Here, we attempt to improve WMD by incorporating the sentence structure represented by BERT's self-attention matrix (SAM). The proposed method is based on the Fused Gromov-Wasserstein distance, which simultaneously considers the similarity of the word embedding and the SAM for calculating the optimal transport between two sentences. Experiments demonstrate the proposed method enhances WMD and its variants in paraphrase identification with near-equivalent performance in semantic textual similarity. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/ymgw55/WSMD}.

The technology that is set to dominate the future – for good or ill – is now the word of the year. "AI" has been named the most notable word of 2023 by the dictionary publisher Collins. Defined as "the modelling of human mental functions by computer programs", AI was chosen because it "has accelerated at such a fast pace and become the dominant conversation of 2023", the publisher said. The use of the word (strictly an initialism) has quadrupled over the past year. It was chosen from a list of new terms that the publisher said reflect "our ever-evolving language and the concerns of those who use it".

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that common noise may serve as an exploration noise for learning the solution of a mean field game. This concept is here exemplified through a toy linear-quadratic model, for which a suitable form of common noise has already been proven to restore existence and uniqueness. We here go one step further and prove that the same form of common noise may force the convergence of the learning algorithm called `fictitious play', and this without any further potential or monotone structure. Several numerical examples are provided in order to support our theoretical analysis.

End-to-end Speech Translation is hindered by a lack of available data resources. While most of them are based on documents, a sentence-level version is available, which is however single and static, potentially impeding the usefulness of the data. We propose a new data augmentation strategy, SegAugment, to address this issue by generating multiple alternative sentence-level versions of a dataset. Our method utilizes an Audio Segmentation system, which re-segments the speech of each document with different length constraints, after which we obtain the target text via alignment methods. Experiments demonstrate consistent gains across eight language pairs in MuST-C, with an average increase of 2.5 BLEU points, and up to 5 BLEU for low-resource scenarios in mTEDx. Furthermore, when combined with a strong system, SegAugment establishes new state-of-the-art results in MuST-C. Finally, we show that the proposed method can also successfully augment sentence-level datasets, and that it enables Speech Translation models to close the gap between the manual and automatic segmentation at inference time.

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.

Implementing effective control mechanisms to ensure the proper functioning and security of deployed NLP models, from translation to chatbots, is essential. A key ingredient to ensure safe system behaviour is Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection, which aims to detect whether an input sample is statistically far from the training distribution. Although OOD detection is a widely covered topic in classification tasks, most methods rely on hidden features output by the encoder. In this work, we focus on leveraging soft-probabilities in a black-box framework, i.e. we can access the soft-predictions but not the internal states of the model. Our contributions include: (i) RAINPROOF a Relative informAItioN Projection OOD detection framework; and (ii) a more operational evaluation setting for OOD detection. Surprisingly, we find that OOD detection is not necessarily aligned with task-specific measures. The OOD detector may filter out samples well processed by the model and keep samples that are not, leading to weaker performance. Our results show that RAINPROOF provides OOD detection methods more aligned with task-specific performance metrics than traditional OOD detectors.

We develop a fitted value iteration (FVI) method to compute bicausal optimal transport (OT) where couplings have an adapted structure. Based on the dynamic programming formulation, FVI adopts a function class to approximate the value functions in bicausal OT. Under the concentrability condition and approximate completeness assumption, we prove the sample complexity using (local) Rademacher complexity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that multilayer neural networks with appropriate structures satisfy the crucial assumptions required in sample complexity proofs. Numerical experiments reveal that FVI outperforms linear programming and adapted Sinkhorn methods in scalability as the time horizon increases, while still maintaining acceptable accuracy.

Discovering the causal relationship via recovering the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure from the observed data is a well-known challenging combinatorial problem. When there are latent variables, the problem becomes even more difficult. In this paper, we first propose a DAG structure recovering algorithm, which is based on the Cholesky factorization of the covariance matrix of the observed data. The algorithm is fast and easy to implement and has theoretical grantees for exact recovery. On synthetic and real-world datasets, the algorithm is significantly faster than previous methods and achieves the state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, under the equal error variances assumption, we incorporate an optimization procedure into the Cholesky factorization based algorithm to handle the DAG recovering problem with latent variables. Numerical simulations show that the modified "Cholesky + optimization" algorithm is able to recover the ground truth graph in most cases and outperforms existing algorithms.

This article was featured in One Story to Read Today, a newsletter in which our editors recommend a single must-read from The Atlantic, Monday through Friday. Diana Henriques was first stricken in late 1996. A business reporter for The New York Times, she was in the midst of a punishing effort to bring a reporting project to fruition. Then one morning she awoke to find herself incapable of pinching her contact lens between her thumb and forefinger. Henriques's hands were soon cursed with numbness, frailty, and a gnawing ache she found similar to menstrual cramps.