Time series forecasting is one of the most essential and ubiquitous tasks in many business problems, including demand forecasting and logistics optimization. Traditional time series forecasting methods, however, have resulted in small models with limited expressive power because they have difficulty in scaling their model size up while maintaining high accuracy. In this paper, we propose Forecasting orchestra (Forchestra), a simple but powerful framework capable of accurately predicting future demand for a diverse range of items. We empirically demonstrate that the model size is scalable to up to 0.8 billion parameters. The proposed method not only outperforms existing forecasting models with a significant margin, but it could generalize well to unseen data points when evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on downstream datasets. Last but not least, we present extensive qualitative and quantitative studies to analyze how the proposed model outperforms baseline models and differs from conventional approaches. The original paper was presented as a full paper at ICDM 2022 and is available at: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10027662.

We introduce an optimization-based reconstruction attack capable of completely or near-completely reconstructing a dataset utilized for training a random forest. Notably, our approach relies solely on information readily available in commonly used libraries such as scikit-learn. To achieve this, we formulate the reconstruction problem as a combinatorial problem under a maximum likelihood objective. We demonstrate that this problem is NP-hard, though solvable at scale using constraint programming -- an approach rooted in constraint propagation and solution-domain reduction. Through an extensive computational investigation, we demonstrate that random forests trained without bootstrap aggregation but with feature randomization are susceptible to a complete reconstruction. This holds true even with a small number of trees. Even with bootstrap aggregation, the majority of the data can also be reconstructed. These findings underscore a critical vulnerability inherent in widely adopted ensemble methods, warranting attention and mitigation. Although the potential for such reconstruction attacks has been discussed in privacy research, our study provides clear empirical evidence of their practicability.

The human brain's plasticity allows for the integration of artificial body parts into the human body. Leveraging this, embodied systems realize intuitive interactions with the environment. We introduce a novel concept: embodied swarm robots. Swarm robots constitute a collective of robots working in harmony to achieve a common objective, in our case, serving as functional body parts. Embodied swarm robots can dynamically alter their shape, density, and the correspondences between body parts and individual robots. We contribute an investigation of the influence on embodiment of swarm robot-specific factors derived from these characteristics, focusing on a hand. Our paper is the first to examine these factors through virtual reality (VR) and real-world robot studies to provide essential design considerations and applications of embodied swarm robots. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, we identified a system configuration to achieve the embodiment of swarm robots.

Social media platforms are daily exhibiting millions of events. To preliminarily predict the mainstream public reaction to these events, we study trendy response prediction to automatically generate top-liked user replies to social media events. While previous works focus on generating responses without factoring in popularity, we propose Popularity-Aligned Language Models (PopALM) to distinguish responses liked by a larger audience through reinforcement learning. Recognizing the noisy labels from user "likes", we tailor-make curriculum learning in proximal policy optimization (PPO) to help models capture the essential samples for easy-to-hard training. In experiments, we build a large-scale Weibo dataset for trendy response prediction, and its results show that PopALM can help boost the performance of advanced language models.

This paper considers causal bandits (CBs) for the sequential design of interventions in a causal system. The objective is to optimize a reward function via minimizing a measure of cumulative regret with respect to the best sequence of interventions in hindsight. The paper advances the results on CBs in three directions. First, the structural causal models (SCMs) are assumed to be unknown and drawn arbitrarily from a general class $\mathcal{F}$ of Lipschitz-continuous functions. Existing results are often focused on (generalized) linear SCMs. Second, the interventions are assumed to be generalized soft with any desired level of granularity, resulting in an infinite number of possible interventions. The existing literature, in contrast, generally adopts atomic and hard interventions. Third, we provide general upper and lower bounds on regret. The upper bounds subsume (and improve) known bounds for special cases. The lower bounds are generally hitherto unknown. These bounds are characterized as functions of the (i) graph parameters, (ii) eluder dimension of the space of SCMs, denoted by $\operatorname{dim}(\mathcal{F})$, and (iii) the covering number of the function space, denoted by ${\rm cn}(\mathcal{F})$. Specifically, the cumulative achievable regret over horizon $T$ is $\mathcal{O}(K d^{L-1}\sqrt{T\operatorname{dim}(\mathcal{F}) \log({\rm cn}(\mathcal{F}))})$, where $K$ is related to the Lipschitz constants, $d$ is the graph's maximum in-degree, and $L$ is the length of the longest causal path. The upper bound is further refined for special classes of SCMs (neural network, polynomial, and linear), and their corresponding lower bounds are provided.

A series of airstrikes carried out by the United States and the United Kingdom on Saturday destroyed or damaged 17 of 18 Houthi targets in Yemen, Department of Defense (DoD) officials told Fox News on Tuesday. The targets included underground weapons storage facilities, missile storage facilities, one-way attack unmanned aerial systems, air defense systems, radars, and a helicopter, said DoD spokesperson U.S. Army Major Pete Nguyen. The coalition airstrikes targeted Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, and came days after a British cargo ship was hit by a Houthi missile. "More broadly, since the first coalition strikes on Jan. 11, we assess that we've destroyed or degraded more than 150 missiles and launchers, including anti-ship land attack and surface-to-air missiles, plus numerous communication capabilities, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, coastal radars, air surveillance capabilities, rotary wing aircraft, underground facilities including weapon storage areas, and command and control buildings," Nguyen said. Gen. Pat Ryder said the strikes have degraded "a significant amount of capability" for the Houthis.

The number of humpback whales in the North Pacific Ocean fell by 20 per cent between 2012 and 2021, according to a study that used artificial intelligence to identify individual whales from photos of their tails. The decline coincided with a massive marine heatwave sometimes called the blob, which began in 2013 and lasted until 2016. The unprecedented intensity of the blob was almost certainly the result of global warming. The findings suggest that around 7000 whales starved to death because of the marine heatwave, says Ted Cheeseman at Southern Cross University in Australia. The blob is known to have caused mass die-offs of many other animals, such as seabirds.

Traffic incident detection plays a key role in intelligent transportation systems, which has gained great attention in transport engineering. In the past, traditional machine learning (ML) based detection methods achieved good performance under a centralised computing paradigm, where all data are transmitted to a central server for building ML models therein. Nowadays, deep neural networks based federated learning (FL) has become a mainstream detection approach to enable the model training in a decentralised manner while warranting local data governance. Such neural networks-centred techniques, however, have overshadowed the utility of well-established ML-based detection methods. In this work, we aim to explore the potential of potent conventional ML-based detection models in modern traffic scenarios featured by distributed data. We leverage an elegant but less explored distributed optimisation framework named Network Lasso, with guaranteed global convergence for convex problem formulations, integrate the potent convex ML model with it, and compare it with centralised learning, local learning, and federated learning methods atop a well-known traffic incident detection dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed network lasso-based approach provides a promising alternative to the FL-based approach in data-decentralised traffic scenarios, with a strong convergence guarantee while rekindling the significance of conventional ML-based detection methods.

For synergistic interactions between humans and artificial intelligence (AI) systems, AI outputs often need to be explainable to people. Explainable AI (XAI) systems are commonly tested in human user studies. However, whether XAI researchers consider potential cultural differences in human explanatory needs remains unexplored. We highlight psychological research that found significant differences in human explanations between many people from Western, commonly individualist countries and people from non-Western, often collectivist countries. We argue that XAI research currently overlooks these variations and that many popular XAI designs implicitly and problematically assume that Western explanatory needs are shared cross-culturally. Additionally, we systematically reviewed over 200 XAI user studies and found that most studies did not consider relevant cultural variations, sampled only Western populations, but drew conclusions about human-XAI interactions more generally. We also analyzed over 30 literature reviews of XAI studies. Most reviews did not mention cultural differences in explanatory needs or flag overly broad cross-cultural extrapolations of XAI user study results. Combined, our analyses provide evidence of a cultural bias toward Western populations in XAI research, highlighting an important knowledge gap regarding how culturally diverse users may respond to widely used XAI systems that future work can and should address.

Tokenization is a foundational step in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, bridging raw text and language models. Existing tokenization approaches like Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) originate from the field of data compression, and it has been suggested that the effectiveness of BPE stems from its ability to condense text into a relatively small number of tokens. We test the hypothesis that fewer tokens lead to better downstream performance by introducing PathPiece, a new tokenizer that segments a document's text into the minimum number of tokens for a given vocabulary. Through extensive experimentation we find this hypothesis not to be the case, casting doubt on the understanding of the reasons for effective tokenization. To examine which other factors play a role, we evaluate design decisions across all three phases of tokenization: pre-tokenization, vocabulary construction, and segmentation, offering new insights into the design of effective tokenizers. Specifically, we illustrate the importance of pre-tokenization and the benefits of using BPE to initialize vocabulary construction. We train 64 language models with varying tokenization, ranging in size from 350M to 2.4B parameters, all of which are made publicly available.