Beyond estimating parameters of interest from data, one of the key goals of statistical inference is to properly quantify uncertainty in these estimates.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising performance in knowledge-intensive reasoning tasks that require a compound understanding of knowledge. However, deployment of the LLMs in real-world applications can be challenging due to their high computational requirements and concerns on data privacy.

In the BAI, the learner needs to pull arms efficiently for better identification.

We introduce the Thresholding Monte Carlo Tree Search problem, in which, given a tree $\mathcal{T}$ and a threshold $θ$, a player must answer whether the root node value of $\mathcal{T}$ is at least $θ$ or not. In the given tree, `MAX' or `MIN' is labeled on each internal node, and the value of a `MAX'-labeled (`MIN'-labeled) internal node is the maximum (minimum) of its child values. The value of a leaf node is the mean reward of an unknown distribution, from which the player can sample rewards. For this problem, we develop a $δ$-correct sequential sampling algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop strategy that has asymptotically optimal sample complexity. We show that a ratio-based modification of the D-Tracking arm-pulling strategy leads to a substantial improvement in empirical sample complexity, as well as reducing the per-round computational cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of arms.

Natural gradients have long been studied in deep reinforcement learning due to their fast convergence properties and covariant weight updates. However, computing natural gradients requires inversion of the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) at each iteration, which is computationally prohibitive in nature. In this paper, we present an efficient and scalable natural policy optimization technique that leverages a rank-1 approximation to full inverse-FIM. We theoretically show that under certain conditions, a rank-1 approximation to inverse-FIM converges faster than policy gradients and, under some conditions, enjoys the same sample complexity as stochastic policy gradient methods. We benchmark our method on a diverse set of environments and show that it achieves superior performance to standard actor-critic and trust-region baselines.

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. V arious uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other measures. In this paper, we argue that there is no single best measure. Instead, uncertainty quantification should be tailored to the specific application. To this end, we use a flexible family of uncertainty measures that distinguishes between total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty of second-order distributions. These measures can be instantiated with specific loss functions, so-called proper scoring rules, to control their characteristics, and we show that different characteristics are useful for different tasks. In particular, we show that, for the task of selective prediction, the scoring rule should ideally match the task loss. On the other hand, for out-of-distribution detection, our results confirm that mutual information, a widely used measure of epistemic uncertainty, performs best. Furthermore, in an active learning setting, epistemic uncertainty based on zero-one loss is shown to consistently outperform other uncertainty measures.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into everyday life and information ecosystems, concerns about their implicit biases continue to persist. While prior work has primarily examined socio-demographic and left--right political dimensions, little attention has been paid to how LLMs align with broader geopolitical value systems, particularly the democracy--authoritarianism spectrum. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to assess such alignment, combining (1) the F-scale, a psychometric tool for measuring authoritarian tendencies, (2) FavScore, a newly introduced metric for evaluating model favorability toward world leaders, and (3) role-model probing to assess which figures are cited as general role-models by LLMs. We find that LLMs generally favor democratic values and leaders, but exhibit increased favorability toward authoritarian figures when prompted in Mandarin. Further, models are found to often cite authoritarian figures as role models, even outside explicit political contexts. These results shed light on ways LLMs may reflect and potentially reinforce global political ideologies, highlighting the importance of evaluating bias beyond conventional socio-political axes. Our code is available at: https://github.com/irenestrauss/Democratic-Authoritarian-Bias-LLMs.

We study the computational problem of computing a fair means clustering of discrete vectors, which admits an equivalent formulation as editing a colored matrix into one with few distinct color-balanced rows by changing at most $k$ values. While NP-hard in both the fairness-oblivious and the fair settings, the problem is well-known to admit a fixed-parameter algorithm in the former ``vanilla'' setting. As our first contribution, we exclude an analogous algorithm even for highly restricted fair means clustering instances. We then proceed to obtain a full complexity landscape of the problem, and establish tractability results which capture three means of circumventing our obtained lower bound: placing additional constraints on the problem instances, fixed-parameter approximation, or using an alternative parameterization targeting tree-like matrices.