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ClauseLens: Clause-Grounded, CVaR-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Trustworthy Reinsurance Pricing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reinsurance treaty pricing must satisfy stringent regulatory standards, yet current quoting practices remain opaque and difficult to audit. We introduce ClauseLens, a clause-grounded reinforcement learning framework that produces transparent, regulation-compliant, and risk-aware treaty quotes. ClauseLens models the quoting task as a Risk-Aware Constrained Markov Decision Process (RA-CMDP). Statutory and policy clauses are retrieved from legal and underwriting corpora, embedded into the agent's observations, and used both to constrain feasible actions and to generate clause-grounded natural language justifications. Evaluated in a multi-agent treaty simulator calibrated to industry data, ClauseLens reduces solvency violations by 51%, improves tail-risk performance by 27.9% (CVaR_0.10), and achieves 88.2% accuracy in clause-grounded explanations with retrieval precision of 87.4% and recall of 91.1%. These findings demonstrate that embedding legal context into both decision and explanation pathways yields interpretable, auditable, and regulation-aligned quoting behavior consistent with Solvency II, NAIC RBC, and the EU AI Act.


Adversarial Machine Learning Attacks on Financial Reporting via Maximum Violated Multi-Objective Attack

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bad actors, primarily distressed firms, have the incentive and desire to manipulate their financial reports to hide their distress and derive personal gains. As attackers, these firms are motivated by potentially millions of dollars and the availability of many publicly disclosed and used financial modeling frameworks. Existing attack methods do not work on this data due to anti-correlated objectives that must both be satisfied for the attacker to succeed. We introduce Maximum Violated Multi-Objective (MVMO) attacks that adapt the attacker's search direction to find $20\times$ more satisfying attacks compared to standard attacks. The result is that in $\approx50\%$ of cases, a company could inflate their earnings by 100-200%, while simultaneously reducing their fraud scores by 15%. By working with lawyers and professional accountants, we ensure our threat model is realistic to how such frauds are performed in practice.


Duality and Policy Evaluation in Distributionally Robust Bayesian Diffusion Control

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a Bayesian diffusion control problem of expected terminal utility maximization. The controller imposes a prior distribution on the unknown drift of an underlying diffusion. The Bayesian optimal control, tracking the posterior distribution of the unknown drift, can be characterized explicitly. However, in practice, the prior will generally be incorrectly specified, and the degree of model misspecification can have a significant impact on policy performance. To mitigate this and reduce overpessimism, we introduce a distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) formulation in which the controller plays a game against an adversary who selects a prior in divergence neighborhood of a baseline prior. The adversarial approach has been studied in economics and efficient algorithms have been proposed in static optimization settings. We develop a strong duality result for our DRBC formulation. Combining these results together with tools from stochastic analysis, we are able to derive a loss that can be efficiently trained (as we demonstrate in our numerical experiments) using a suitable neural network architecture. As a result, we obtain an effective algorithm for computing the DRBC optimal strategy. The methodology for computing the DRBC optimal strategy is greatly simplified, as we show, in the important case in which the adversary chooses a prior from a Kullback-Leibler distributional uncertainty set.


Solving Boltzmann Optimization Problems with Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decades of exponential scaling in high performance computing (HPC) efficiency is coming to an end. Transistor based logic in complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology is approaching physical limits beyond which further miniaturization will be impossible. Future HPC efficiency gains will necessarily rely on new technologies and paradigms of compute. The Ising model shows particular promise as a future framework for highly energy efficient computation. Ising systems are able to operate at energies approaching thermodynamic limits for energy consumption of computation. Ising systems can function as both logic and memory. Thus, they have the potential to significantly reduce energy costs inherent to CMOS computing by eliminating costly data movement. The challenge in creating Ising-based hardware is in optimizing useful circuits that produce correct results on fundamentally nondeterministic hardware. The contribution of this paper is a novel machine learning approach, a combination of deep neural networks and random forests, for efficiently solving optimization problems that minimize sources of error in the Ising model. In addition, we provide a process to express a Boltzmann probability optimization problem as a supervised machine learning problem.


Small Effect Sizes in Malware Detection? Make Harder Train/Test Splits!

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industry practitioners care about small improvements in malware detection accuracy because their models are deployed to hundreds of millions of machines, meaning a 0.1\% change can cause an overwhelming number of false positives. However, academic research is often restrained to public datasets on the order of ten thousand samples and is too small to detect improvements that may be relevant to industry. Working within these constraints, we devise an approach to generate a benchmark of configurable difficulty from a pool of available samples. This is done by leveraging malware family information from tools like AVClass to construct training/test splits that have different generalization rates, as measured by a secondary model. Our experiments will demonstrate that using a less accurate secondary model with disparate features is effective at producing benchmarks for a more sophisticated target model that is under evaluation. We also ablate against alternative designs to show the need for our approach.


Rockafellian Relaxation and Stochastic Optimization under Perturbations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In practice, optimization models are often prone to unavoidable inaccuracies due to dubious assumptions and corrupted data. Traditionally, this placed special emphasis on risk-based and robust formulations, and their focus on ``conservative" decisions. We develop, in contrast, an ``optimistic" framework based on Rockafellian relaxations in which optimization is conducted not only over the original decision space but also jointly with a choice of model perturbation. The framework enables us to address challenging problems with ambiguous probability distributions from the areas of two-stage stochastic optimization without relatively complete recourse, probability functions lacking continuity properties, expectation constraints, and outlier analysis. We are also able to circumvent the fundamental difficulty in stochastic optimization that convergence of distributions fails to guarantee convergence of expectations. The framework centers on the novel concepts of exact and limit-exact Rockafellians, with interpretations of ``negative'' regularization emerging in certain settings. We illustrate the role of Phi-divergence, examine rates of convergence under changing distributions, and explore extensions to first-order optimality conditions. The main development is free of assumptions about convexity, smoothness, and even continuity of objective functions. Numerical results in the setting of computer vision and text analytics with label noise illustrate the framework.


Adaptive, Doubly Optimal No-Regret Learning in Strongly Monotone and Exp-Concave Games with Gradient Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online gradient descent (OGD) is well known to be doubly optimal under strong convexity or monotonicity assumptions: (1) in the single-agent setting, it achieves an optimal regret of $\Theta(\log T)$ for strongly convex cost functions; and (2) in the multi-agent setting of strongly monotone games, with each agent employing OGD, we obtain last-iterate convergence of the joint action to a unique Nash equilibrium at an optimal rate of $\Theta(\frac{1}{T})$. While these finite-time guarantees highlight its merits, OGD has the drawback that it requires knowing the strong convexity/monotonicity parameters. In this paper, we design a fully adaptive OGD algorithm, \textsf{AdaOGD}, that does not require a priori knowledge of these parameters. In the single-agent setting, our algorithm achieves $O(\log^2(T))$ regret under strong convexity, which is optimal up to a log factor. Further, if each agent employs \textsf{AdaOGD} in strongly monotone games, the joint action converges in a last-iterate sense to a unique Nash equilibrium at a rate of $O(\frac{\log^3 T}{T})$, again optimal up to log factors. We illustrate our algorithms in a learning version of the classical newsvendor problem, where due to lost sales, only (noisy) gradient feedback can be observed. Our results immediately yield the first feasible and near-optimal algorithm for both the single-retailer and multi-retailer settings. We also extend our results to the more general setting of exp-concave cost functions and games, using the online Newton step (ONS) algorithm.


Artificial intelligence can improve sales by four times compared to some human employees

#artificialintelligence

CATONSVILLE, MD, September 23, 2019 - Chatbots, which use artificial intelligence to simulate human conversation through voice commands or text chats, incur almost zero marginal costs and can outsell some human employees by four times, so why aren't they used more often? According to new research, the main contributor is customer pushback. The machines don't have "bad days" and never get frustrated or tired like humans, and they can save money for consumers, but new research in the INFORMS journal Marketing Science says if customers know about the chatbot before purchasing, sales rates decline by more than 79.7%. The study authors, Xueming Luo and Siliang Tong (both of Temple University), Zheng Fang of Sichuan University, and Zhe Qu of Fudan University, targeted 6,000 customers from a financial services company. They were randomly assigned to either humans or chatbots, and disclosure of the bots varied from not telling the consumer at all, to telling them at the beginning of the conversation or after the conversation, or telling them after they'd purchased something.


Ethics guidelines from INFORMS focus on analytics and operations research - B2B News Network

#artificialintelligence

As more enterprise firms and their customers start to question the use of data in analytics, research and artificial intelligence tools, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) is offering an 18-point set of guidelines to ensure ethics in quantitative decision-making. Based in Catonsville, Md., INFORMS was established in 1995 following a merger between the Operations Research Society of America and The Institute of Management Sciences. Its ethics guidelines, which are available as a foldable printout, are grouped into three broad categories where operations research and analytics are likely to have the greatest impact. These include society, business organizations themselves and those working directly in professional roles involving quantitative decision-making. "We aspire to be . . . Questioning of whether there are more effective and efficient ways to reach a goal," one of the guidelines says, for example, as well as "realistic in our claims of achievable results, and in acknowledging when the best course of action may be to terminate a project."


Architectures for Activity Recognition and Context-Aware Computing

AI Magazine

The last 10 years have seen the development of novel architectures and technologies for domainfocused, task-specific systems that know many things, such as who (identities, profile, history) they are with (social context) and in what role (responsibility, security, privacy); when and where (event, time, place); why (goals, shared or personal); how are they doing it (methods, applications); and using what resources (device, services, access, and ownership). Smart spaces and devices will increasingly use such contextual knowledge to help users move seamlessly between devices and applications, without having to explicitly carry, transfer, and exchange activity context. Such systems will qualitatively shift our lives both at work and play and significantly change our interactions both with our physical and virtual worlds. This dream of seamlessly interacting with our virtual environment has a long history as can be seen in Apple Inc.'s Knowledge Navigator 1987 concept video. However, the combination of dramatic progress in low-power mobile computing devices and sensors, with advances in artificial intelligence and human-computer interaction (HCI) in the last decade, have provided the kind of platforms and algorithms that are enabling context-aware virtual personal assistants that plan activities and recognize intent. This has lead to an increase in work designed to bring these ideas into real world application and address the final technical hurdles that will make such systems a reality.