Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods estimate causal effects in an idealistic and simplistic way - ignoring the causal structure among short-term outcomes and treating all of them as surrogates. However, such methods cannot be well applied to real-world scenarios, in which the partially observed surrogates are mixed with their proxies among short-term outcomes. To this end, we develop our flexible method, Laser, to estimate long-term causal effects in the more realistic situation that the surrogates are observed or have observed proxies.Given the indistinguishability between the surrogates and proxies, we utilize identifiable variational auto-encoder (iVAE) to recover the whole valid surrogates on all the surrogates candidates without the need of distinguishing the observed surrogates or the proxies of latent surrogates. With the help of the recovered surrogates, we further devise an unbiased estimation of long-term causal effects. Extensive experimental results on the real-world and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

While recommender systems have become an integral component of the Web experience, their heavy reliance on user data raises privacy and security concerns. Substituting user data with synthetic data can address these concerns, but accurately replicating these real-world datasets has been a notoriously challenging problem. Recent advancements in generative AI have demonstrated the impressive capabilities of diffusion models in generating realistic data across various domains. In this work we introduce a Score-based Diffusion Recommendation Module (SDRM), which captures the intricate patterns of real-world datasets required for training highly accurate recommender systems. SDRM allows for the generation of synthetic data that can replace existing datasets to preserve user privacy, or augment existing datasets to address excessive data sparsity. Our method outperforms competing baselines such as generative adversarial networks, variational autoencoders, and recently proposed diffusion models in synthesizing various datasets to replace or augment the original data by an average improvement of 4.30% in Recall@$k$ and 4.65% in NDCG@$k$.

Given the complex geometry of white matter streamlines, Autoencoders have been proposed as a dimension-reduction tool to simplify the analysis streamlines in a low-dimensional latent spaces. However, despite these recent successes, the majority of encoder architectures only perform dimension reduction on single streamlines as opposed to a full bundle of streamlines. This is a severe limitation of the encoder architecture that completely disregards the global geometric structure of streamlines at the expense of individual fibers. Moreover, the latent space may not be well structured which leads to doubt into their interpretability. In this paper we propose a novel Differentiable Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder, which are engineered to ingest entire bundles of streamlines as single data-point and provides reliable trustworthy encodings that can then be later used to analyze streamlines in the latent space. Comparisons with several state of the art Autoencoders demonstrate superior performance in both encoding and synthesis.

Federated learning (FL) has achieved great success as a privacy-preserving distributed training paradigm, where many edge devices collaboratively train a machine learning model by sharing the model updates instead of the raw data with a server. However, the heterogeneous computational and communication resources of edge devices give rise to stragglers that significantly decelerate the training process. To mitigate this issue, we propose a novel FL framework named stochastic coded federated learning (SCFL) that leverages coded computing techniques. In SCFL, before the training process starts, each edge device uploads a privacy-preserving coded dataset to the server, which is generated by adding Gaussian noise to the projected local dataset. During training, the server computes gradients on the global coded dataset to compensate for the missing model updates of the straggling devices. We design a gradient aggregation scheme to ensure that the aggregated model update is an unbiased estimate of the desired global update. Moreover, this aggregation scheme enables periodical model averaging to improve the training efficiency. We characterize the tradeoff between the convergence performance and privacy guarantee of SCFL. In particular, a more noisy coded dataset provides stronger privacy protection for edge devices but results in learning performance degradation. We further develop a contract-based incentive mechanism to coordinate such a conflict. The simulation results show that SCFL learns a better model within the given time and achieves a better privacy-performance tradeoff than the baseline methods. In addition, the proposed incentive mechanism grants better training performance than the conventional Stackelberg game approach.

Deep neural network ensembles combine the wisdom of multiple deep neural networks to improve the generalizability and robustness over individual networks. It has gained increasing popularity to study deep ensemble techniques in the deep learning community. Some mission-critical applications utilize a large number of deep neural networks to form deep ensembles to achieve desired accuracy and resilience, which introduces high time and space costs for ensemble execution. However, it still remains a critical challenge whether a small subset of the entire deep ensemble can achieve the same or better generalizability and how to effectively identify these small deep ensembles for improving the space and time efficiency of ensemble execution. This paper presents a novel deep ensemble pruning approach, which can efficiently identify smaller deep ensembles and provide higher ensemble accuracy than the entire deep ensemble of a large number of member networks. Our hierarchical ensemble pruning approach (HQ) leverages three novel ensemble pruning techniques. First, we show that the focal diversity metrics can accurately capture the complementary capacity of the member networks of an ensemble, which can guide ensemble pruning. Second, we design a focal diversity based hierarchical pruning approach, which will iteratively find high quality deep ensembles with low cost and high accuracy. Third, we develop a focal diversity consensus method to integrate multiple focal diversity metrics to refine ensemble pruning results, where smaller deep ensembles can be effectively identified to offer high accuracy, high robustness and high efficiency. Evaluated using popular benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed hierarchical ensemble pruning approach can effectively identify high quality deep ensembles with better generalizability while being more time and space efficient in ensemble decision making.

Diagnosis of breast cancer malignancy at the early stages is a crucial step for controlling its side effects. Histopathological analysis provides a unique opportunity for malignant breast cancer detection. However, such a task would be tedious and time-consuming for the histopathologists. Deep Neural Networks enable us to learn informative features directly from raw histopathological images without manual feature extraction. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been the dominant architectures in the computer vision realm, Transformer-based architectures have shown promising results in different computer vision tasks. Although harnessing the capability of Transformer-based architectures for medical image analysis seems interesting, these architectures are large, have a significant number of trainable parameters, and require large datasets to be trained on, which are usually rare in the medical domain. It has been claimed and empirically proved that at least part of the superior performance of Transformer-based architectures in Computer Vision domain originates from patch embedding operation. In this paper, we borrowed the previously introduced idea of integrating a fully Convolutional Neural Network architecture with Patch Embedding operation and presented an efficient CNN architecture for breast cancer malignancy detection from histopathological images. Despite the number of parameters that is significantly smaller than other methods, the accuracy performance metrics achieved 97.65%, 98.92%, 99.21%, and 98.01% for 40x, 100x, 200x, and 400x magnifications respectively. We took a step forward and modified the architecture using Group Convolution and Channel Shuffling ideas and reduced the number of trainable parameters even more with a negligible decline in performance and achieved 95.42%, 98.16%, 96.05%, and 97.92% accuracy for the mentioned magnifications respectively.

We investigate a formalism for the conditions of a successful explanation of AI. We consider "success" to depend not only on what information the explanation contains, but also on what information the human explainee understands from it. Theory of mind literature discusses the folk concepts that humans use to understand and generalize behavior. We posit that folk concepts of behavior provide us with a "language" that humans understand behavior with. We use these folk concepts as a framework of social attribution by the human explainee--the information constructs that humans are likely to comprehend from explanations--by introducing a blueprint for an explanatory narrative (Figure 1) that explains AI behavior with these constructs. We then demonstrate that many XAI methods today can be mapped to folk concepts of behavior in a qualitative evaluation. This allows us to uncover their failure modes that prevent current methods from explaining successfully--i.e., the information constructs that are missing for any given XAI method, and whose inclusion can decrease the likelihood of misunderstanding AI behavior.

Online games are dynamic environments where players interact with each other, which offers a rich setting for understanding how players negotiate their way through the game to an ultimate victory. This work studies online player interactions during the turn-based strategy game, Diplomacy. We annotated a dataset of over 10,000 chat messages for different negotiation strategies and empirically examined their importance in predicting long- and short-term game outcomes. Although negotiation strategies can be predicted reasonably accurately through the linguistic modeling of the chat messages, more is needed for predicting short-term outcomes such as trustworthiness. On the other hand, they are essential in graph-aware reinforcement learning approaches to predict long-term outcomes, such as a player's success, based on their prior negotiation history. We close with a discussion of the implications and impact of our work. The dataset is available at https://github.com/kj2013/claff-diplomacy.

Future sequence represents the outcome after executing the action into the environment (i.e. the trajectory onwards). When driven by the information-theoretic concept of mutual information, it seeks maximally informative consequences. Explicit outcomes may vary across state, return, or trajectory serving different purposes such as credit assignment or imitation learning. However, the inherent nature of incorporating intrinsic motivation with reward maximization is often neglected. In this work, we propose a policy iteration scheme that seamlessly incorporates the mutual information, ensuring convergence to the optimal policy. Concurrently, a variational approach is introduced, which jointly learns the necessary quantity for estimating the mutual information and the dynamics model, providing a general framework for incorporating different forms of outcomes of interest. While we mainly focus on theoretical analysis, our approach opens the possibilities of leveraging intrinsic control with model learning to enhance sample efficiency and incorporate uncertainty of the environment into decision-making.

Decision trees are essential yet NP-complete to train, prompting the widespread use of heuristic methods such as CART, which suffers from sub-optimal performance due to its greedy nature. Recently, breakthroughs in finding optimal decision trees have emerged; however, these methods still face significant computational costs and struggle with continuous features in large-scale datasets and deep trees. To address these limitations, we introduce a moving-horizon differential evolution algorithm for classification trees with continuous features (MH-DEOCT). Our approach consists of a discrete tree decoding method that eliminates duplicated searches between adjacent samples, a GPU-accelerated implementation that significantly reduces running time, and a moving-horizon strategy that iteratively trains shallow subtrees at each node to balance the vision and optimizer capability. Comprehensive studies on 68 UCI datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms the heuristic method CART on training and testing accuracy by an average of 3.44% and 1.71%, respectively. Moreover, these numerical studies empirically demonstrate that MH-DEOCT achieves near-optimal performance (only 0.38% and 0.06% worse than the global optimal method on training and testing, respectively), while it offers remarkable scalability for deep trees (e.g., depth=8) and large-scale datasets (e.g., ten million samples).