Real-time estimation of destination and travel time for taxis is of great importance for existing electronic dispatch systems. We present an approach based on trip matching and ensemble learning, in which we leverage the patterns observed in a dataset of roughly 1.7 million taxi journeys to predict the corresponding final destination and travel time for ongoing taxi trips, as a solution for the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 competition. The results of our empirical evaluation show that our approach is effective and very robust, which led our team -- BlueTaxi -- to the 3rd and 7th position of the final rankings for the trip time and destination prediction tasks, respectively. Given the fact that the final rankings were computed using a very small test set (with only 320 trips) we believe that our approach is one of the most robust solutions for the challenge based on the consistency of our good results across the test sets.

The Resilient Propagation (Rprop) algorithm has been very popular for backpropagation training of multilayer feed-forward neural networks in various applications. The standard Rprop however encounters difficulties in the context of deep neural networks as typically happens with gradient-based learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a modification of the Rprop that combines standard Rprop steps with a special drop out technique. We apply the method for training Deep Neural Networks as standalone components and in ensemble formulations. Results on the MNIST dataset show that the proposed modification alleviates standard Rprop's problems demonstrating improved learning speed and accuracy.

This work is concerned with regular languages defined over large alphabets, either infinite or just too large to be expressed enumeratively. We define a generic model where transitions are labeled by elements of a finite partition of the alphabet. We then extend Angluin's L* algorithm for learning regular languages from examples for such automata. We have implemented this algorithm and we demonstrate its behavior where the alphabet is a subset of the natural or real numbers. We sketch the extension of the algorithm to a class of languages over partially ordered alphabets.

We study the restless bandit associated with an extremely simple scalar Kalman filter model in discrete time. Under certain assumptions, we prove that the problem is indexable in the sense that the Whittle index is a non-decreasing function of the relevant belief state. In spite of the long history of this problem, this appears to be the first such proof. We use results about Schur-convexity and mechanical words, which are particular binary strings intimately related to palindromes.

Tree structures are ubiquitous in data across many domains, and many datasets are naturally modelled by unobserved tree structures. In this paper, first we review the theory of random fragmentation processes [Bertoin, 2006], and a number of existing methods for modelling trees, including the popular nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP). Then we define a general class of probability distributions over trees: the Dirichlet fragmentation process (DFP) through a novel combination of the theory of Dirichlet processes and random fragmentation processes. This DFP presents a stick-breaking construction, and relates to the nCRP in the same way the Dirichlet process relates to the Chinese restaurant process. Furthermore, we develop a novel hierarchical mixture model with the DFP, and empirically compare the new model to similar models in machine learning. Experiments show the DFP mixture model to be convincingly better than existing state-of-the-art approaches for hierarchical clustering and density modelling.

Traditional Kalman filter (KF) is derived under the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion, which is optimal under Gaussian assumption. However, when the signals are non-Gaussian, especially when the system is disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises, the performance of KF will deteriorate seriously. To improve the robustness of KF against impulsive noises, we propose in this work a new Kalman filter, called the maximum correntropy Kalman filter (MCKF), which adopts the robust maximum correntropy criterion (MCC) as the optimality criterion, instead of using the MMSE. Similar to the traditional KF, the state mean and covariance matrix propagation equations are used to give prior estimations of the state and covariance matrix in MCKF. A novel fixed-point algorithm is then used to update the posterior estimations. A sufficient condition that guarantees the convergence of the fixed-point algorithm is given. Illustration examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the new algorithm.

We present a novel analysis of the dynamics of tensor power iterations in the overcomplete regime where the tensor CP rank is larger than the input dimension. Finding the CP decomposition of an overcomplete tensor is NP-hard in general. We consider the case where the tensor components are randomly drawn, and show that the simple power iteration recovers the components with bounded error under mild initialization conditions. We apply our analysis to unsupervised learning of latent variable models, such as multi-view mixture models and spherical Gaussian mixtures. Given the third order moment tensor, we learn the parameters using tensor power iterations. We prove it can correctly learn the model parameters when the number of hidden components $k$ is much larger than the data dimension $d$, up to $k = o(d^{1.5})$. We initialize the power iterations with data samples and prove its success under mild conditions on the signal-to-noise ratio of the samples. Our analysis significantly expands the class of latent variable models where spectral methods are applicable. Our analysis also deals with noise in the input tensor leading to sample complexity result in the application to learning latent variable models.

Objective: Anemia is a frequent comorbidity in hemodialysis patients that can be successfully treated by administering erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs). ESAs dosing is currently based on clinical protocols that often do not account for the high inter- and intra-individual variability in the patient's response. As a result, the hemoglobin level of some patients oscillates around the target range, which is associated with multiple risks and side-effects. This work proposes a methodology based on reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize ESA therapy. Methods: RL is a data-driven approach for solving sequential decision-making problems that are formulated as Markov decision processes (MDPs). Computing optimal drug administration strategies for chronic diseases is a sequential decision-making problem in which the goal is to find the best sequence of drug doses. MDPs are particularly suitable for modeling these problems due to their ability to capture the uncertainty associated with the outcome of the treatment and the stochastic nature of the underlying process. The RL algorithm employed in the proposed methodology is fitted Q iteration, which stands out for its ability to make an efficient use of data. Results: The experiments reported here are based on a computational model that describes the effect of ESAs on the hemoglobin level. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated and compared with the well-known Q-learning algorithm and with a standard protocol. Simulation results show that the performance of Q-learning is substantially lower than FQI and the protocol. Conclusion: Although prospective validation is required, promising results demonstrate the potential of RL to become an alternative to current protocols.

In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but even though a few toy examples exist in the literature, there are still no extensive or rigorous benchmarks to compare them. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed.

In the co-sparse analysis model a set of filters is applied to a signal out of the signal class of interest yielding sparse filter responses. As such, it may serve as a prior in inverse problems, or for structural analysis of signals that are known to belong to the signal class. The more the model is adapted to the class, the more reliable it is for these purposes. The task of learning such operators for a given class is therefore a crucial problem. In many applications, it is also required that the filter responses are obtained in a timely manner, which can be achieved by filters with a separable structure. Not only can operators of this sort be efficiently used for computing the filter responses, but they also have the advantage that less training samples are required to obtain a reliable estimate of the operator. The first contribution of this work is to give theoretical evidence for this claim by providing an upper bound for the sample complexity of the learning process. The second is a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method designed to learn an analysis operator with separable structures, which includes a novel and efficient step size selection rule. Numerical experiments are provided that link the sample complexity to the convergence speed of the SGD algorithm.