Europe
Generative Profiling for Soft Real-Time Systems and its Applications to Resource Allocation
Bondar, Georgiy A., Eisenklam, Abigail, Cai, Yifan, Gifford, Robert, Sial, Tushar, Phan, Linh Thi Xuan, Halder, Abhishek
Modern real-time systems require accurate characterization of task timing behavior to ensure predictable performance, particularly on complex hardware architectures. Existing methods, such as worst-case execution time analysis, often fail to capture the fine-grained timing behaviors of a task under varying resource contexts (e.g., an allocation of cache, memory bandwidth, and CPU frequency), which is necessary to achieve efficient resource utilization. In this paper, we introduce a novel generative profiling approach that synthesizes context-dependent, fine-grained timing profiles for real-time tasks, including those for unmeasured resource allocations. Our approach leverages a nonparametric, conditional multi-marginal Schrรถdinger Bridge (MSB) formulation to generate accurate execution profiles for unseen resource contexts, with maximum likelihood guarantees. We demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach through real-world benchmarks, and showcase its practical utility in a representative case study of adaptive multicore resource allocation for real-time systems.
DDCL-INCRT: A Self-Organising Transformer with Hierarchical Prototype Structure (Theoretical Foundations)
Modern neural networks of the transformer family require the practitioner to decide, before training begins, how many attention heads to use, how deep the network should be, and how wide each component should be. These decisions are made without knowledge of the task, producing architectures that are systematically larger than necessary: empirical studies find that a substantial fraction of heads and layers can be removed after training without performance loss. This paper introduces DDCL-INCRT, an architecture that determines its own structure during training. Two complementary ideas are combined. The first, DDCL (Deep Dual Competitive Learning), replaces the feedforward block with a dictionary of learned prototype vectors representing the most informative directions in the data. The prototypes spread apart automatically, driven by the training objective, without explicit regularisation. The second, INCRT (Incremental Transformer), controls the number of heads: starting from one, it adds a new head only when the directional information uncaptured by existing heads exceeds a threshold. The main theoretical finding is that these two mechanisms reinforce each other: each new head amplifies prototype separation, which in turn raises the signal triggering the next addition. At convergence, the network self-organises into a hierarchy of heads ordered by representational granularity. This hierarchical structure is proved to be unique and minimal, the smallest architecture sufficient for the task, under the stated conditions. Formal guarantees of stability, convergence, and pruning safety are established throughout. The architecture is not something one designs. It is something one derives.
Information-Theoretic Limits of Safety Verification for Self-Improving Systems
Can a safety gate permit unbounded beneficial self-modification while maintaining bounded cumulative risk? We formalize this question through dual conditions -- requiring sum delta_n < infinity (bounded risk) and sum TPR_n = infinity (unbounded utility) -- and establish a theory of their (in)compatibility. Classification impossibility (Theorem 1): For power-law risk schedules delta_n = O(n^{-p}) with p > 1, any classifier-based gate under overlapping safe/unsafe distributions satisfies TPR_n <= C_alpha * delta_n^beta via Holder's inequality, forcing sum TPR_n < infinity. This impossibility is exponent-optimal (Theorem 3). A second independent proof via the NP counting method (Theorem 4) yields a 13% tighter bound without Holder's inequality. Universal finite-horizon ceiling (Theorem 5): For any summable risk schedule, the exact maximum achievable classifier utility is U*(N, B) = N * TPR_NP(B/N), growing as exp(O(sqrt(log N))) -- subpolynomial. At N = 10^6 with budget B = 1.0, a classifier extracts at most U* ~ 87 versus a verifier's ~500,000. Verification escape (Theorem 2): A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves delta = 0 with TPR > 0, escaping the impossibility. Formal Lipschitz bounds for pre-LayerNorm transformers under LoRA enable LLM-scale verification. The separation is strict. We validate on GPT-2 (d_LoRA = 147,456): conditional delta = 0 with TPR = 0.352. Comprehensive empirical validation is in the companion paper [D2].
Regularizing Attention Scores with Bootstrapping
Chung, Neo Christopher, Laletin, Maxim
Vision transformers (ViT) rely on attention mechanism to weigh input features, and therefore attention scores have naturally been considered as explanations for its decision-making process. However, attention scores are almost always non-zero, resulting in noisy and diffused attention maps and limiting interpretability. Can we quantify uncertainty measures of attention scores and obtain regularized attention scores? To this end, we consider attention scores of ViT in a statistical framework where independent noise would lead to insignificant yet non-zero scores. Leveraging statistical learning techniques, we introduce the bootstrapping for attention scores which generates a baseline distribution of attention scores by resampling input features. Such a bootstrap distribution is then used to estimate significances and posterior probabilities of attention scores. In natural and medical images, the proposed \emph{Attention Regularization} approach demonstrates a straightforward removal of spurious attention arising from noise, drastically improving shrinkage and sparsity. Quantitative evaluations are conducted using both simulation and real-world datasets. Our study highlights bootstrapping as a practical regularization tool when using attention scores as explanations for ViT. Code available: https://github.com/ncchung/AttentionRegularization
Caveman casino! Humans began gambling 12,000 YEARS ago, scientists say - as they discover ancient dice in the western Great Plains
Sydney Sweeney's role is cut from The Devil Wears Prada 2 Driver who hit and killed jogger father-of-two sues victim's estate claiming incident left him with severe PTSD New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-aging, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Alarm over popular new coffee chain invading the US... as experts warn of chilling secret behind its $1.99 brew Vance grounded at White House as Iran peace talks in turmoil and Trump declares: 'I expect to be bombing' Jordon Hudson extends her control over Bill Belichick's empire with secret move that is set to leave his family and friends furious Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' Truth about your Mounjaro injection site: Our expert doctors reveal exactly where you should inject yourself for the best results, what to do if your weight loss has slowed down... and the areas you should NEVER jab Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, crashed car while speeding and killed four friends... then posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Beloved Republican mayor of small Great Plains town could be deported over'mistake' he insists was an innocent one Humiliating moment runner celebrates winning marathon... only to be pipped at the line by rival in brutal finish The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Why desperate Fergie's next move will be her biggest bombshell yet... and this is the only thing that can stop her: AMANDA PLATELL RED MORE: Man's best friend has been in Britain for 14,300 years Humans began gambling 12,000 years ago, experts say - after discovering dice that date back to the last Ice Age. A team from Colorado State University have unearthed the earliest evidence of two-sided dice crafted from small pieces of bone. They were originally found at an archaeological site on the western Great Plains of America, predating the current oldest known dice by more than 6,000 years. The discovery indicates that gambling and games of chance have been a persistent feature of North American culture since the end of the last Ice Age, experts say. 'Historians have traditionally treated dice and probability as Old World innovations,' researcher Robert Madden said.
Scenario theory for multi-criteria data-driven decision making
Garatti, Simone, Manieri, Lucrezia, Falsone, Alessandro, Carรจ, Algo, Campi, Marco C., Prandini, Maria
The scenario approach provides a powerful data-driven framework for designing solutions under uncertainty with rigorous probabilistic robustness guarantees. Existing theory, however, primarily addresses assessing robustness with respect to a single appropriateness criterion for the solution based on a dataset, whereas many practical applications - including multi-agent decision problems - require the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria and the assessment of their robustness based on multiple datasets, one per criterion. This paper develops a general scenario theory for multi-criteria data-driven decision making. A central innovation lies in the collective treatment of the risks associated with violations of individual criteria, which yields substantially more accurate robustness certificates than those derived from a naive application of standard results. In turn, this approach enables a sharper quantification of the robustness level with which all criteria are simultaneously satisfied. The proposed framework applies broadly to multi-criteria data-driven decision problems, providing a principled, scalable, and theoretically grounded methodology for design under uncertainty.
Denoising distances beyond the volumetric barrier
Huang, Han, Jiradilok, Pakawut, Mossel, Elchanan
We study the problem of reconstructing the latent geometry of a $d$-dimensional Riemannian manifold from a random geometric graph. While recent works have made significant progress in manifold recovery from random geometric graphs, and more generally from noisy distances, the precision of pairwise distance estimation has been fundamentally constrained by the volumetric barrier, namely the natural sample-spacing scale $n^{-1/d}$ coming from the fact that a generic point of the manifold typically lies at distance of order $n^{-1/d}$ from the nearest sampled point. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach, Orthogonal Ring Distance Estimation Routine (ORDER), which achieves a pointwise distance estimation precision of order $n^{-2/(d+5)}$ up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$ in polynomial time. This strictly beats the volumetric barrier for dimensions $d > 5$. As a consequence of obtaining pointwise precision better than $n^{-1/d}$, we prove that the Gromov--Wasserstein distance between the reconstructed metric measure space and the true latent manifold is of order $n^{-1/d}$. This matches the Wasserstein convergence rate of empirical measures, demonstrating that our reconstructed graph metric is asymptotically as good as having access to the full pairwise distance matrix of the sampled points. Our results are proven in a very general setting which includes general models of noisy pairwise distances, sparse random geometric graphs, and unknown connection probability functions.
Empirical Validation of the Classification-Verification Dichotomy for AI Safety Gates
Can classifier-based safety gates maintain reliable oversight as AI systems improve over hundreds of iterations? We provide comprehensive empirical evidence that they cannot. On a self-improving neural controller (d=240), eighteen classifier configurations -- spanning MLPs, SVMs, random forests, k-NN, Bayesian classifiers, and deep networks -- all fail the dual conditions for safe self-improvement. Three safe RL baselines (CPO, Lyapunov, safety shielding) also fail. Results extend to MuJoCo benchmarks (Reacher-v4 d=496, Swimmer-v4 d=1408, HalfCheetah-v4 d=1824). At controlled distribution separations up to delta_s=2.0, all classifiers still fail -- including the NP-optimal test and MLPs with 100% training accuracy -- demonstrating structural impossibility. We then show the impossibility is specific to classification, not to safe self-improvement itself. A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves zero false accepts across dimensions d in {84, 240, 768, 2688, 5760, 9984, 17408} using provable analytical bounds (unconditional delta=0). Ball chaining enables unbounded parameter-space traversal: on MuJoCo Reacher-v4, 10 chains yield +4.31 reward improvement with delta=0; on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct during LoRA fine-tuning, 42 chain transitions traverse 234x the single-ball radius with zero safety violations across 200 steps. A 50-prompt oracle confirms oracle-agnosticity. Compositional per-group verification enables radii up to 37x larger than full-network balls. At d<=17408, delta=0 is unconditional; at LLM scale, conditional on estimated Lipschitz constants.
Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series
We study trajectory forecasting under squared loss for time series with weak conditional structure, using highly expressive prediction models. Building on the classical characterization of squared-loss risk minimization, we emphasize regimes in which the conditional expectation of future trajectories is effectively degenerate, leading to trivial Bayes-optimal predictors (flat for prices and zero for returns in standard financial settings). In this regime, increased model expressivity does not improve predictive accuracy but instead introduces spurious trajectory fluctuations around the optimal predictor. These fluctuations arise from the reuse of noise and result in increased prediction variance without any reduction in bias. This provides a process-level explanation for the degradation of Transformerbased forecasts on financial time series. We complement these theoretical results with numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data, analyzing the distribution of trajectory-level forecasting errors. The results show that Transformer-based models yield larger errors than a simple linear benchmark on a large majority of forecasting windows, consistent with the variance-driven mechanism identified by the theory.
Inverse-Free Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes
Cortinovis, Stefano, Aitchison, Laurence, Eleftheriadis, Stefanos, van der Wilk, Mark
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer appealing properties but are costly to train at scale. Sparse variational GP (SVGP) approximations reduce cost yet still rely on Cholesky decompositions of kernel matrices, ill-suited to low-precision, massively parallel hardware. While one can construct valid variational bounds that rely only on matrix multiplications (matmuls) via an auxiliary matrix parameter, optimising them with off-the-shelf first-order methods is challenging. We make the inverse-free approach practical by proposing a better-conditioned bound and deriving a matmul-only natural-gradient update for the auxiliary parameter, markedly improving stability and convergence. We further provide simple heuristics, such as step-size schedules and stopping criteria, that make the overall optimisation routine fit seamlessly into existing workflows. Across regression and classification benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method 1) serves as a drop-in replacement in SVGP-based models (e.g., deep GPs), 2) recovers similar performance to traditional methods, and 3) can be faster than baselines when well tuned.