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Reliable Statistical Guarantees for Conformal Predictors with Small Datasets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require a thorough data-agnostic uncertainty quantification analysis before these can be deployed for any safety-critical application. The standard approach for data-agnostic uncertainty quantification is to use conformal prediction (CP), a well-established framework to build uncertainty models with proven statistical guarantees that do not assume any shape for the error distribution of the surrogate model. However, since the classic statistical guarantee offered by CP is given in terms of bounds for the marginal coverage, for small calibration set sizes (which are frequent in realistic surrogate modelling that aims to quantify error at different regions), the potentially strong dispersion of the coverage distribution around its average negatively impacts the relevance of the uncertainty model's statistical guarantee, often obtaining coverages below the expected value, resulting in a less applicable framework. After providing a gentle presentation of uncertainty quantification for surrogate models for machine learning practitioners, in this paper we bridge the gap by proposing a new statistical guarantee that offers probabilistic information for the coverage of a single conformal predictor. We show that the proposed framework converges to the standard solution offered by CP for large calibration set sizes and, unlike the classic guarantee, still offers relevant information about the coverage of a conformal predictor for small data sizes. We validate the methodology in a suite of examples, and implement an open access software solution that can be used alongside common conformal prediction libraries to obtain uncertainty models that fulfil the new guarantee.


Reconstruction of Graph Signals on Complex Manifolds with Kernel Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph signals are widely used to describe vertex attributes or features in graph-structured data, with applications spanning the internet, social media, transportation, sensor networks, and biomedicine. Graph signal processing (GSP) has emerged to facilitate the analysis, processing, and sampling of such signals. While kernel methods have been extensively studied for estimating graph signals from samples provided on a subset of vertices, their application to complex-valued graph signals remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces a novel framework for reconstructing graph signals using kernel methods on complex manifolds. By embedding graph vertices into a higher-dimensional complex ambient space that approximates a lower-dimensional manifold, the framework extends the reproducing kernel Hilbert space to complex manifolds. It leverages Hermitian metrics and geometric measures to characterize kernels and graph signals. Additionally, several traditional kernels and graph topology-driven kernels are proposed for reconstructing complex graph signals. Finally, experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework in accurately reconstructing complex graph signals, outperforming conventional kernel-based approaches. This work lays a foundational basis for integrating complex geometry and kernel methods in GSP.


PythonPal: Enhancing Online Programming Education through Chatbot-Driven Personalized Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of online programming education has necessitated more effective, personalized interactions, a gap that PythonPal aims to fill through its innovative learning system integrated with a chatbot. This research delves into PythonPal's potential to enhance the online learning experience, especially in contexts with high student-to-teacher ratios where there is a need for personalized feedback. PythonPal's design, featuring modules for conversation, tutorials, and exercises, was evaluated through student interactions and feedback. Key findings reveal PythonPal's proficiency in syntax error recognition and user query comprehension, with its intent classification model showing high accuracy. The system's performance in error feedback, though varied, demonstrates both strengths and areas for enhancement. Student feedback indicated satisfactory query understanding and feedback accuracy but also pointed out the need for faster responses and improved interaction quality. PythonPal's deployment promises to significantly enhance online programming education by providing immediate, personalized feedback and interactive learning experiences, fostering a deeper understanding of programming concepts among students. These benefits mark a step forward in addressing the challenges of distance learning, making programming education more accessible and effective.


Synthesizing Individualized Aging Brains in Health and Disease with Generative Models and Parallel Transport

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Simulating prospective magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from a given individual brain image is challenging, as it requires accounting for canonical changes in aging and/or disease progression while also considering the individual brain's current status and unique characteristics. While current deep generative models can produce high-resolution anatomically accurate templates for population-wide studies, their ability to predict future aging trajectories for individuals remains limited, particularly in capturing subject-specific neuroanatomical variations over time. In this study, we introduce Individualized Brain Synthesis (InBrainSyn), a framework for synthesizing high-resolution subject-specific longitudinal MRI scans that simulate neurodegeneration in both Alzheimer's disease (AD) and normal aging. InBrainSyn uses a parallel transport algorithm to adapt the population-level aging trajectories learned by a generative deep template network, enabling individualized aging synthesis. As InBrainSyn uses diffeomorphic transformations to simulate aging, the synthesized images are topologically consistent with the original anatomy by design. We evaluated InBrainSyn both quantitatively and qualitatively on AD and healthy control cohorts from the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies - version 3 dataset. Experimentally, InBrainSyn can also model neuroanatomical transitions between normal aging and AD. An evaluation of an external set supports its generalizability. Overall, with only a single baseline scan, InBrainSyn synthesizes realistic 3D spatiotemporal T1w MRI scans, producing personalized longitudinal aging trajectories. The code for InBrainSyn is available at: https://github.com/Fjr9516/InBrainSyn.


Grandes modelos de lenguaje: de la predicci\'on de palabras a la comprensi\'on?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models, such as the well-known ChatGPT, have brought about an unexpected revolution in the field of artificial intelligence. On the one hand, they have numerous practical applications and enormous potential still to be explored. On the other hand, they are also the subject of debate from scientific, philosophical, and social perspectives: there are doubts about the exact mechanisms of their functioning and their actual capacity for language comprehension, and their applications raise ethical dilemmas. In this chapter, we describe how this technology has been developed and the fundamentals of its operation, allowing us to better understand its capabilities and limitations and to introduce some of the main debates surrounding its development and use. -- Los grandes modelos de lenguaje, como el conocido ChatGPT, han supuesto una inesperada revoluci\'on en el \'ambito de la inteligencia artificial. Por un lado, cuentan con multitud de aplicaciones pr\'acticas y un enorme potencial todav\'ia por explorar. Por otro lado, son tambi\'en objeto de debate, tanto desde el punto de vista cient\'ifico y filos\'ofico como social: hay dudas sobre los mecanismos exactos de su funcionamiento y su capacidad real de comprensi\'on del lenguaje, y sus aplicaciones plantean dilemas \'eticos. En este cap\'itulo describimos c\'omo se ha llegado a esta tecnolog\'ia y los fundamentos de su funcionamiento, permiti\'endonos as\'i comprender mejor sus capacidades y limitaciones e introducir algunos de los principales debates que rodean su desarrollo y uso.


Integrating Inverse and Forward Modeling for Sparse Temporal Data from Sensor Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present CavePerception, a framework for the analysis of sparse data from sensor networks that incorporates elements of inverse modeling and forward modeling. By integrating machine learning with physical modeling in a hypotheses space, we aim to improve the inter-pretability of sparse, noisy, and potentially incomplete sensor data. The framework assumes data from a two-dimensional sensor network laid out in a graph structure that detects certain objects, with certain motion patterns. Examples of such sensors are magnetometers. Given knowledge about the objects and the way they act on the sensors, one can develop a data generator that produces data from simulated motions of the objects across the sensor field. The framework uses the simulated data to infer object behaviors across the sensor network. The approach is experimentally tested on real-world data, where magnetometers are used on an airport to detect and identify aircraft motions. Experiments demonstrate the value of integrating inverse and forward modeling, enabling intelligent systems to better understand and predict complex, sensor-driven events.


Indigenous Languages Spoken in Argentina: A Survey of NLP and Speech Resources

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Argentina has a large yet little-known Indigenous linguistic diversity, encompassing at least 40 different languages. The majority of these languages are at risk of disappearing, resulting in a significant loss of world heritage and cultural knowledge. Currently, unified information on speakers and computational tools is lacking for these languages. In this work, we present a systematization of the Indigenous languages spoken in Argentina, classifying them into seven language families: Mapuche, Tup\'i-Guaran\'i, Guaycur\'u, Quechua, Mataco-Mataguaya, Aymara, and Chon. For each one, we present an estimation of the national Indigenous population size, based on the most recent Argentinian census. We discuss potential reasons why the census questionnaire design may underestimate the actual number of speakers. We also provide a concise survey of computational resources available for these languages, whether or not they were specifically developed for Argentinian varieties.


Geospatial distributions reflect rates of evolution of features of language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantifying the speed of linguistic change is challenging due to the fact that the historical evolution of languages is sparsely documented. Consequently, traditional methods rely on phylogenetic reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a model-based approach to the problem through the analysis of language change as a stochastic process combining vertical descent, spatial interactions, and mutations in both dimensions. A notion of linguistic temperature emerges naturally from this analysis as a dimensionless measure of the propensity of a linguistic feature to undergo change. We demonstrate how temperatures of linguistic features can be inferred from their present-day geospatial distributions, without recourse to information about their phylogenies. Thus the evolutionary dynamics of language, operating across thousands of years, leaves a measurable geospatial signature. This signature licenses inferences about the historical evolution of languages even in the absence of longitudinal data.


An FPGA-Based Neuro-Fuzzy Sensor for Personalized Driving Assistance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Depending on their sophistication level, sensors can be classified ranging from simple sensors that directly measure single physical parameters (e.g., ambient light sensors and temperature sensors) to complex intelligent sensors, which determine parameters of the surrounding environment through wide spectrum signals (e.g., radio frequency/radar and light/video); besides measuring, they perform data processing and are enabled to carry out actuations. Whereas intelligent sensors make use of data of a different nature underneath, in which complex and nonlinear behaviors are codified; data-mining techniques used jointly with machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown adequate performance for modeling this hidden information. As intelligent sensors often rely on complex sensors and sensor fusion techniques, the data processing power they need can only be provided by high-performance computational platforms such as microprocessors, graphics-processing units (GPUs), or field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). In particular, FPGA-based implementations stand out due to the extremely high operational frequencies and low power consumption they can achieve, even for complex, multilayered algorithms [1]. In the context of the automotive field, intelligent sensors are key components of current assistance systems.


Semantic Role Labeling of NomBank Partitives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article is about Semantic Role Labeling for English partitive nouns (5%/REL of the price/ARG1; The price/ARG1 rose 5 percent/REL) in the NomBank annotated corpus. Several systems are described using traditional and transformer-based machine learning, as well as ensembling. Our highest scoring system achieves an F1 of 91.74% using "gold" parses from the Penn Treebank and 91.12% when using the Berkeley Neural parser. This research includes both classroom and experimental settings for system development.