Kristiansand
Large Language Models for Agent-Based Modelling: Current and possible uses across the modelling cycle
Vanhée, Loïs, Borit, Melania, Siebers, Peer-Olaf, Cremades, Roger, Frantz, Christopher, Gürcan, Önder, Kalvas, František, Kera, Denisa Reshef, Nallur, Vivek, Narasimhan, Kavin, Neumann, Martin
The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) with increasingly sophisticated natural language understanding and generative capabilities has sparked interest in the Agent-based Modelling (ABM) community. With their ability to summarize, generate, analyze, categorize, transcribe and translate text, answer questions, propose explanations, sustain dialogue, extract information from unstructured text, and perform logical reasoning and problem-solving tasks, LLMs have a good potential to contribute to the modelling process. After reviewing the current use of LLMs in ABM, this study reflects on the opportunities and challenges of the potential use of LLMs in ABM. It does so by following the modelling cycle, from problem formulation to documentation and communication of model results, and holding a critical stance.
An Investigation into the Causal Mechanism of Political Opinion Dynamics: A Model of Hierarchical Coarse-Graining with Community-Bounded Social Influence
Widler, Valeria, Kaminska, Barbara, Martins, Andre C. R., Puga-Gonzalez, Ivan
The increasing polarization in democratic societies is an emergent outcome of political opinion dynamics. Yet, the fundamental mechanisms behind the formation of political opinions, from individual beliefs to collective consensus, remain unknown. Understanding that a causal mechanism must account for both bottom-up and top-down influences, we conceptualize political opinion dynamics as hierarchical coarse-graining, where microscale opinions integrate into a macro-scale state variable. Using the CODA (Continuous Opinions Discrete Actions) model, we simulate Bayesian opinion updating, social identity-based information integration, and migration between social identity groups to represent higher-level connectivity. This results in coarse-graining across micro, meso, and macro levels. Our findings show that higher-level connectivity shapes information integration, yielding three regimes: independent (disconnected, local convergence), parallel (fast, global convergence), and iterative (slow, stepwise convergence). In the iterative regime, low connectivity fosters transient diversity, indicating an informed consensus. In all regimes, time-scale separation leads to downward causation, where agents converge on the aggregate majority choice, driving consensus. Critically, any degree of coherent higher-level information integration can overcome misalignment via global downward causation. The results highlight how emergent properties of the causal mechanism, such as downward causation, are essential for consensus and may inform more precise investigations into polarized political discourse.
A Generic Modelling Framework for Last-Mile Delivery Systems
Gürcan, Önder, Szczepanska, Timo, Falck, Vanja, Antosz, Patrycja, Cebeci, Merve Seher, de Bok, Michiel, Tapia, Rodrigo, Tavasszy, Lóránt
Large-scale social digital twinning projects are complex with multiple objectives. For example, a social digital twinning platform for innovative last-mile delivery solutions may aim to assess consumer delivery method choices within their social environment. However, no single tool can achieve all objectives. Different simulators exist for consumer behavior and freight transport. Therefore, we propose a high-level architecture and present a blueprint for a generic modelling framework. This includes defining modules, input/output data, and interconnections, while addressing data suitability and compatibility risks. We demonstrate the framework's effectiveness with two real-world case studies.
Generating Spatial Synthetic Populations Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network: A Case Study with EU-SILC Data for Helsinki and Thessaloniki
Using agent-based social simulations can enhance our understanding of urban planning, public health, and economic forecasting. Realistic synthetic populations with numerous attributes strengthen these simulations. The Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network, trained on census data like EU-SILC, can create robust synthetic populations. These methods, aided by external statistics or EU-SILC weights, generate spatial synthetic populations for agent-based models. The increased access to high-quality micro-data has sparked interest in synthetic populations, which preserve demographic profiles and analytical strength while ensuring privacy and preventing discrimination. This study uses national data from Finland and Greece for Helsinki and Thessaloniki to explore balanced spatial synthetic population generation. Results show challenges related to balancing data with or without aggregated statistics for the target population and the general under-representation of fringe profiles by deep generative methods. The latter can lead to discrimination in agent-based simulations.
Multimodal AI on Wound Images and Clinical Notes for Home Patient Referral
Fard, Reza Saadati, Agu, Emmanuel, Busaranuvong, Palawat, Kumar, Deepak, Gautam, Shefalika, Tulu, Bengisu, Strong, Diane
Chronic wounds affect 8.5 million Americans, particularly the elderly and patients with diabetes. These wounds can take up to nine months to heal, making regular care essential to ensure healing and prevent severe outcomes like limb amputations. Many patients receive care at home from visiting nurses with varying levels of wound expertise, leading to inconsistent care. Problematic, non-healing wounds should be referred to wound specialists, but referral decisions in non-clinical settings are often erroneous, delayed, or unnecessary. This paper introduces the Deep Multimodal Wound Assessment Tool (DM-WAT), a machine learning framework designed to assist visiting nurses in deciding whether to refer chronic wound patients. DM-WAT analyzes smartphone-captured wound images and clinical notes from Electronic Health Records (EHRs). It uses DeiT-Base-Distilled, a Vision Transformer (ViT), to extract visual features from images and DeBERTa-base to extract text features from clinical notes. DM-WAT combines visual and text features using an intermediate fusion approach. To address challenges posed by a small and imbalanced dataset, it integrates image and text augmentation with transfer learning to achieve high performance. In evaluations, DM-WAT achieved 77% with std 3% accuracy and a 70% with std 2% F1 score, outperforming prior approaches. Score-CAM and Captum interpretation algorithms provide insights into specific parts of image and text inputs that influence recommendations, enhancing interpretability and trust.
A Robust Governance for the AI Act: AI Office, AI Board, Scientific Panel, and National Authorities
Novelli, Claudio, Hacker, Philipp, Morley, Jessica, Trondal, Jarle, Floridi, Luciano
Regulation is nothing without enforcement. This particularly holds for the dynamic field of emerging technologies. Hence, this article has two ambitions. First, it explains how the EU s new Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) will be implemented and enforced by various institutional bodies, thus clarifying the governance framework of the AIA. Second, it proposes a normative model of governance, providing recommendations to ensure uniform and coordinated execution of the AIA and the fulfilment of the legislation. Taken together, the article explores how the AIA may be implemented by national and EU institutional bodies, encompassing longstanding bodies, such as the European Commission, and those newly established under the AIA, such as the AI Office. It investigates their roles across supranational and national levels, emphasizing how EU regulations influence institutional structures and operations. These regulations may not only directly dictate the structural design of institutions but also indirectly request administrative capacities needed to enforce the AIA.
LLM-Augmented Agent-Based Modelling for Social Simulations: Challenges and Opportunities
As large language models (LLMs) continue to make significant strides, their better integration into agent-based simulations offers a transformational potential for understanding complex social systems. However, such integration is not trivial and poses numerous challenges. Based on this observation, in this paper, we explore architectures and methods to systematically develop LLM-augmented social simulations and discuss potential research directions in this field. We conclude that integrating LLMs with agent-based simulations offers a powerful toolset for researchers and scientists, allowing for more nuanced, realistic, and comprehensive models of complex systems and human behaviours.
A Guide to Re-Implementing Agent-based Models: Experiences from the HUMAT Model
Gürcan, Önder, Szczepanska, Timo, Antosz, Patrycja
Replicating existing agent-based models poses significant challenges, particularly for those new to the field. This article presents an all-encompassing guide to re-implementing agent-based models, encompassing vital concepts such as comprehending the original model, utilizing agent-based modeling frameworks, simulation design, model validation, and more. By embracing the proposed guide, researchers and practitioners can gain a profound understanding of the entire re-implementation process, resulting in heightened accuracy and reliability of simulations for complex systems. Furthermore, this article showcases the re-implementation of the HUMAT socio-cognitive architecture, with a specific focus on designing a versatile, language-independent model. The encountered challenges and pitfalls in the re-implementation process are thoroughly discussed, empowering readers with practical insights. Embrace this guide to expedite model development while ensuring robust and precise simulations.
Learning Minimalistic Tsetlin Machine Clauses with Markov Boundary-Guided Pruning
Granmo, Ole-Christoffer, Andersen, Per-Arne, Jiao, Lei, Zhang, Xuan, Blakely, Christian, Tveit, Tor
A set of variables is the Markov blanket of a random variable if it contains all the information needed for predicting the variable. If the blanket cannot be reduced without losing useful information, it is called a Markov boundary. Identifying the Markov boundary of a random variable is advantageous because all variables outside the boundary are superfluous. Hence, the Markov boundary provides an optimal feature set. However, learning the Markov boundary from data is challenging for two reasons. If one or more variables are removed from the Markov boundary, variables outside the boundary may start providing information. Conversely, variables within the boundary may stop providing information. The true role of each candidate variable is only manifesting when the Markov boundary has been identified. In this paper, we propose a new Tsetlin Machine (TM) feedback scheme that supplements Type I and Type II feedback. The scheme introduces a novel Finite State Automaton - a Context-Specific Independence Automaton. The automaton learns which features are outside the Markov boundary of the target, allowing them to be pruned from the TM during learning. We investigate the new scheme empirically, showing how it is capable of exploiting context-specific independence to find Markov boundaries. Further, we provide a theoretical analysis of convergence. Our approach thus connects the field of Bayesian networks (BN) with TMs, potentially opening up for synergies when it comes to inference and learning, including TM-produced Bayesian knowledge bases and TM-based Bayesian inference.