We study semisupervised mean estimation with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and a black-box prediction model whose output may be miscalibrated. A standard approach in this setting is augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) [Robins et al., 1994], which protects against prediction-model misspecification but can be inefficient when the prediction score is poorly aligned with the outcome scale. We introduce Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference, which post-hoc calibrates the prediction score on the labeled sample before using it for semisupervised estimation. This simple step requires no retraining and can improve the original score both as a predictor of the outcome and as a regression adjustment for semisupervised inference. We study both linear and isotonic calibration. For isotonic calibration, we establish first-order optimality guarantees: isotonic post-processing can improve predictive accuracy and estimator efficiency relative to the original score and simpler post-processing rules, while no further post-processing of the fitted isotonic score yields additional first-order gains. For linear calibration, we show first-order equivalence to PPI++. We also clarify the relationship among existing estimators, showing that the original PPI estimator is a special case of AIPW and can be inefficient when the prediction model is accurate, while PPI++ is AIPW with empirical efficiency maximization [Rubin et al., 2008]. In simulations and real-data experiments, our calibrated estimators often outperform PPI and are competitive with, or outperform, AIPW and PPI++. We provide an accompanying Python package, ppi_aipw, at https://larsvanderlaan.github.io/ppi-aipw/.

What if training a robot to handle dirty, dangerous work on the factory floor was as simple as showing it how? Czech startup RoboTwin is doing exactly that, helping factory workers teach robots new skills by demonstration. Instead of writing complex code, workers perform the job once and RoboTwin's technology turns those movements into a robot programme - opening the door to automation for smaller manufacturers. Founded in Prague in 2021, RoboTwin builds handheld devices and no-code software that capture human movements and translate them into instructions for industrial robots. The aim is to make automation faster, simpler and more accessible to manufacturers that do not have specialist robotics programmers.

Anomaly and failure detection methods are crucial in identifying deviations from normal system operational conditions, which allows for actions to be taken in advance, usually preventing more serious damages. Long-lasting deviations indicate failures, while sudden, isolated changes in the data indicate anomalies. However, in many practical applications, changes in the data do not always represent abnormal system states. Such changes may be recognized incorrectly as failures, while being a normal evolution of the system, e.g. referring to characteristics of starting the processing of a new product, i.e. realizing a domain shift. Therefore, distinguishing between failures and such ''healthy'' changes in data distribution is critical to ensure the practical robustness of the system. In this paper, we propose a method that not only detects changes in the data distribution and anomalies but also allows us to distinguish between failures and normal domain shifts inherent to a given process. The proposed method consists of a modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector for identification of the domain shift and possible failures and supervised domain-adaptation-based algorithms for fast, online anomaly detection. These two are coupled with an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) component that aims at helping the human operator to finally differentiate between domain shifts and failures. The method is illustrated by an experiment on a data stream from the steel factory.

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We study adversarially robust transfer learning, wherein, given labeled data on multiple (source) tasks, the goal is to train a model with small robust error on a previously unseen (target) task. In particular, we consider a multi-task representation learning (MTRL) setting, i.e., we assume that the source and target tasks admit a simple (linear) predictor on top of a shared representation (e.g., the final hidden layer of a deep neural network). In this general setting, we provide rates on the excess adversarial (transfer) risk for Lipschitz losses and smooth nonnegative losses. These rates show that learning a representation using adversarial training on diverse tasks helps protect against inference-time attacks in data-scarce environments. Additionally, we provide novel rates for the single-task setting.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIA) aim to infer whether a target data record has been utilized for model training or not.