This article presents a comprehensive overview of the digital twin technology and its capability levels, with a specific focus on its applications in the wind energy industry. It consolidates the definitions of digital twin and its capability levels on a scale from 0-5; 0-standalone, 1-descriptive, 2-diagnostic, 3-predictive, 4-prescriptive, 5-autonomous. It then, from an industrial perspective, identifies the current state of the art and research needs in the wind energy sector. The article proposes approaches to the identified challenges from the perspective of research institutes and offers a set of recommendations for diverse stakeholders to facilitate the acceptance of the technology. The contribution of this article lies in its synthesis of the current state of knowledge and its identification of future research needs and challenges from an industry perspective, ultimately providing a roadmap for future research and development in the field of digital twin and its applications in the wind energy industry.

The growing capabilities and increasingly widespread deployment of AI systems necessitate robust benchmarks for measuring their cooperative capabilities. Unfortunately, most multi-agent benchmarks are either zero-sum or purely cooperative, providing limited opportunities for such measurements. We introduce a general-sum variant of the zero-sum board game Diplomacy -- called Welfare Diplomacy -- in which players must balance investing in military conquest and domestic welfare. We argue that Welfare Diplomacy facilitates both a clearer assessment of and stronger training incentives for cooperative capabilities. Our contributions are: (1) proposing the Welfare Diplomacy rules and implementing them via an open-source Diplomacy engine; (2) constructing baseline agents using zero-shot prompted language models; and (3) conducting experiments where we find that baselines using state-of-the-art models attain high social welfare but are exploitable. Our work aims to promote societal safety by aiding researchers in developing and assessing multi-agent AI systems. Code to evaluate Welfare Diplomacy and reproduce our experiments is available at https://github.com/mukobi/welfare-diplomacy.

Planning informative trajectories while considering the spatial distribution of the information over the environment, as well as constraints such as the robot's limited battery capacity, makes the long-time horizon persistent coverage problem complex. Ergodic search methods consider the spatial distribution of environmental information while optimizing robot trajectories; however, current methods lack the ability to construct the target information spatial distribution for environments that vary stochastically across space and time. Moreover, current coverage methods dealing with battery capacity constraints either assume simple robot and battery models, or are computationally expensive. To address these problems, we propose a framework called Eclares, in which our contribution is two-fold. 1) First, we propose a method to construct the target information spatial distribution for ergodic trajectory optimization using clarity, an information measure bounded between [0,1]. The clarity dynamics allows us to capture information decay due to lack of measurements and to quantify the maximum attainable information in stochastic spatiotemporal environments. 2) Second, instead of directly tracking the ergodic trajectory, we introduce the energy-aware (eware) filter, which iteratively validates the ergodic trajectory to ensure that the robot has enough energy to return to the charging station when needed. The proposed eware filter is applicable to nonlinear robot models and is computationally lightweight. We demonstrate the working of the framework through a simulation case study.

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version - the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) - that have been designed under Gaussian assumptions result in degraded performance. t-distributions are a parametric family of distributions whose tail-heaviness is modulated by a degree of freedom $\nu$. Interestingly, Cauchy and Gaussian distributions correspond to the extreme cases of a t-distribution for $\nu = 1$ and $\nu = \infty$, respectively. Leveraging tools from measure transport (Spantini et al., SIAM Review, 2022), we present a generalization of the EnKF whose prior-to-posterior update leads to exact inference for t-distributions. We demonstrate that this filter is less sensitive to outlying synthetic observations generated by the observation model for small $\nu$. Moreover, it recovers the Kalman filter for $\nu = \infty$. For nonlinear state-space models with heavy-tailed noise, we propose an algorithm to estimate the prior-to-posterior update from samples of joint forecast distribution of the states and observations. We rely on a regularized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the mean, scale matrix, and degree of freedom of heavy-tailed \textit{t}-distributions from limited samples (Finegold and Drton, arXiv preprint, 2014). Leveraging the conditional independence of the joint forecast distribution, we regularize the scale matrix with an $l1$ sparsity-promoting penalization of the log-likelihood at each iteration of the EM algorithm. By sequentially estimating the degree of freedom at each analysis step, our filter can adapt its prior-to-posterior update to the tail-heaviness of the data. We demonstrate the benefits of this new ensemble filter on challenging filtering problems.

Russia launched 36 drone attacks overnight on Ukraine, according to Kyiv's air force, in Moscow's latest air raid targeting the country. Ukraine's air force said in a statement on Tuesday that its defence systems had destroyed 27 of the drones. The attacks using Iran-made Shahed drones targeted the Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions of Ukraine, the air force said on the Telegram messaging app. Moscow launched a total of 36 Iranian-made drones from the Russia-annexed Crimean peninsula, it added. The air force did not say which targets, if any, the nine other drones may have hit.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive abilities in various tasks. However, fundamentally improving them depends on high-quality datasets or computationally expensive fine-tuning. On the contrary, humans can easily improve themselves by self-thinking and memory, without external resources. In this paper, we propose a framework, MoT, to let the LLM self-improve through Memory-of-Thought, without annotated datasets and parameter updates. Specifically, MoT is divided into two stages: 1. before the test stage, the LLM pre-thinks on the unlabeled dataset and saves the high-confidence thoughts as external memory; 2. During the test stage, given a test question, the LLM recalls relevant memory to help itself reason and answer it. Experimental results show that MoT can help ChatGPT significantly improve its abilities in arithmetic reasoning, commonsense reasoning, factual reasoning, and natural language inference. Further analyses show that each component contributes critically to the improvements and MoT can lead to consistent improvements across various CoT methods and LLMs.

Discovering governing equations from data is important to many scientific and engineering applications. Despite promising successes, existing methods are still challenged by data sparsity as well as noise issues, both of which are ubiquitous in practice. Moreover, state-of-the-art methods lack uncertainty quantification and/or are costly in training. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel equation discovery method based on Kernel learning and BAyesian Spike-and-Slab priors (KBASS). We use kernel regression to estimate the target function, which is flexible, expressive, and more robust to data sparsity and noises. We combine it with a Bayesian spike-and-slab prior -- an ideal Bayesian sparse distribution -- for effective operator selection and uncertainty quantification. We develop an expectation propagation expectation-maximization (EP-EM) algorithm for efficient posterior inference and function estimation. To overcome the computational challenge of kernel regression, we place the function values on a mesh and induce a Kronecker product construction, and we use tensor algebra methods to enable efficient computation and optimization. We show the significant advantages of KBASS on a list of benchmark ODE and PDE discovery tasks.

A recent focus of large language model (LLM) development, as exemplified by generative search engines, is to incorporate external references to generate and support its claims. However, evaluating the attribution, i.e., verifying whether the generated statement is fully supported by the cited reference, remains an open problem. Although human evaluation is common practice, it is costly and time-consuming. In this paper, we investigate the automatic evaluation of attribution given by LLMs. We begin by defining different types of attribution errors, and then explore two approaches for automatic evaluation: prompting LLMs and fine-tuning smaller LMs. The fine-tuning data is repurposed from related tasks such as question answering, fact-checking, natural language inference, and summarization. We manually curate a set of test examples covering 12 domains from a generative search engine, New Bing. Our results on this curated test set and simulated examples from existing benchmarks highlight both promising signals and challenges. We hope our problem formulation, testbeds, and findings will help lay the foundation for future studies on this important problem.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shares why its important for America to stay in the fight between Russia and Ukraine on One Nation. NATO is testing new sea drones that can use artificial intelligence to detect suspicious activity near underwater infrastructure. Fourteen members of the NATO alliance, along with Sweden, have teamed up for multiple exercises over 12 days off the cost of Portugal to test underwater sea drones that have real-time ability to send "a deterrence signal to the enemy, be it Russia or somebody else," said Lt. Gen. Hans-Werner Wiermann, head of NATO's cell for protecting undersea infrastructure, according to a report from Bloomberg. The exercises, dubbed Dynamic Messenger 23 and Robotic Experimentation and Prototyping with Maritime Unmanned Systems (REPMUS 23), will bring together over 2,000 civilian amid military personnel with a focus on integrating maritime unmanned systems into the alliance's operations and test new technologies that are currently under development. NATO personnel test new underwater drone technology during Dynamic Messenger 23 and REPMUS 23 exercises.