Researchers say evaluating the'social-connectedness' of regions using Facebook data could give epidemiologists another tool in judging the spread of infectious disease outside of geographic proximity and population density. The study, which appears in the preprint journal ArXiv and is authored by researchers from New York University, found links between two hotspots of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic - Westchester County, New York and Lodi province in Italy - to areas with correlating connections on the social media platform, Facebook. Using an equation developed by the same researchers in 2017 called the'Social Connectedness Index' the study was able to make correlations between the spread of COVID-19 from Westchester County and Lodi to geographically disparate locations like ski resorts on Florida and vacation spots in Rimini, Italy near the Adriatic sea. Those correlations remained even after controlling for wealth, population density, and geographic proximity according to researchers. Levels of social connectedness didn't always correlate to the disproportionate spread of the virus, however.

In most real-world applications, it is seldom the case that a given observable evolves independently of its environment. In social networks, users' behavior results from the people they interact with, news in their feed, or trending topics. In natural language, the meaning of phrases emerges from the combination of words. In general medicine, a diagnosis is established on the basis of the interaction of symptoms. Here, we propose a new model, the Interactive Mixed Membership Stochastic Block Model (IMMSBM), which investigates the role of interactions between entities (hashtags, words, memes, etc.) and quantifies their importance within the aforementioned corpora. We find that interactions play an important role in those corpora. In inference tasks, taking them into account leads to average relative changes with respect to non-interactive models of up to 150\% in the probability of an outcome. Furthermore, their role greatly improves the predictive power of the model. Our findings suggest that neglecting interactions when modeling real-world phenomena might lead to incorrect conclusions being drawn.

With the rapid emergence of deep learning (DL) technology, it has been successfully used in various fields including aquaculture. This change can create new opportunities and a series of challenges for information and data processing in smart fish farming. This paper focuses on the applications of DL in aquaculture, including live fish identification, species classification, behavioral analysis, feeding decision-making, size or biomass estimation, water quality prediction. In addition, the technical details of DL methods applied to smart fish farming are also analyzed, including data, algorithms, computing power, and performance. The results of this review show that the most significant contribution of DL is the ability to automatically extract features. However, challenges still exist; DL is still in an era of weak artificial intelligence. A large number of labeled data are needed for training, which has become a bottleneck restricting further DL applications in aquaculture. Nevertheless, DL still offers breakthroughs in the handling of complex data in aquaculture. In brief, our purpose is to provide researchers and practitioners with a better understanding of the current state of the art of DL in aquaculture, which can provide strong support for the implementation of smart fish farming.

Access to a fast and easily copied forward model of a game is essential for model-based reinforcement learning and for algorithms such as Monte Carlo tree search, and is also beneficial as a source of unlimited experience data for model-free algorithms. Learning forward models is an interesting and important challenge in order to address problems where a model is not available. Building upon previous work on the Neural GPU, this paper introduces the Neural Game Engine, as a way to learn models directly from pixels. The learned models are able to generalise to different size game levels to the ones they were trained on without loss of accuracy. Results on 10 deterministic General Video Game AI games demonstrate competitive performance, with many of the games models being learned perfectly both in terms of pixel predictions and reward predictions. The pre-trained models are available through the OpenAI Gym interface and are available publicly for future research here: \url{https://github.com/Bam4d/Neural-Game-Engine}

We propose a generative model for the spatio-temporal distribution of high dimensional categorical observations. These are commonly produced by robots equipped with an imaging sensor such as a camera, paired with an image classifier, potentially producing observations over thousands of categories. The proposed approach combines the use of Dirichlet distributions to model sparse co-occurrence relations between the observed categories using a latent variable, and Gaussian processes to model the latent variable's spatio-temporal distribution. Experiments in this paper show that the resulting model is able to efficiently and accurately approximate the temporal distribution of high dimensional categorical measurements such as taxonomic observations of microscopic organisms in the ocean, even in unobserved (held out) locations, far from other samples. This work's primary motivation is to enable deployment of informative path planning techniques over high dimensional categorical fields, which until now have been limited to scalar or low dimensional vector observations.

UPS Flight Forward (UPSFF) is collaborating with German drone-maker Wingcopter to develop the next generation of package delivery drones for a variety of use cases in the United States and internationally. UPSFF is a subsidiary of UPS dedicated to drone delivery. UPS chose Wingcopter for its unmanned aircraft technology and its track record in delivering a variety of goods over long distances in multiple international settings. "Drone delivery is not a one-size-fits-all operation," said Bala Ganesh, vice president of the UPS Advanced Technology Group. "Our collaboration with Wingcopter helps pave the way for us to start drone delivery service in new use-cases. UPS Flight Forward is building a network of technology partners to broaden our unique capability to serve customers and extend our leadership in drone delivery."

The sparse factorization of a large matrix is fundamental in modern statistical learning. In particular, the sparse singular value decomposition and its variants have been utilized in multivariate regression, factor analysis, biclustering, vector time series modeling, among others. The appeal of this factorization is owing to its power in discovering a highly-interpretable latent association network, either between samples and variables or between responses and predictors. However, many existing methods are either ad hoc without a general performance guarantee, or are computationally intensive, rendering them unsuitable for large-scale studies. We formulate the statistical problem as a sparse factor regression and tackle it with a divide-and-conquer approach. In the first stage of division, we consider both sequential and parallel approaches for simplifying the task into a set of co-sparse unit-rank estimation (CURE) problems, and establish the statistical underpinnings of these commonly-adopted and yet poorly understood deflation methods. In the second stage of division, we innovate a contended stagewise learning technique, consisting of a sequence of simple incremental updates, to efficiently trace out the whole solution paths of CURE. Our algorithm has a much lower computational complexity than alternating convex search, and the choice of the step size enables a flexible and principled tradeoff between statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Our work is among the first to enable stagewise learning for non-convex problems, and the idea can be applicable in many multi-convex problems. Extensive simulation studies and an application in genetics demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our approach.

Managing the quality of water for present and future generations of coastal regions should be a central concern of both citizens and public officials. Remote sensing can contribute to the management and monitoring of coastal water and pollutants. Algal blooms are a coastal pollutant that is a cause of concern. Many satellite data, such as MODIS, have been used to generate water-quality products to detect the blooms such as chlorophyll a (Chl-a), a photosynthesis index called fluorescence line height (FLH), and sea surface temperature (SST). It is important to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of these water quality products by using the mathematical models of these products. However, for monitoring, pollution control boards will need nowcasts and forecasts of any pollution. Therefore, we aim to predict the future values of the MODIS Chl-a, FLH, and SST of the water. This will not be limited to one type of water but, rather, will cover different types of water varying in depth and turbidity. This is very significant because the temporal trend of Chl-a, FLH, and SST is dependent on the geospatial and water properties. For this purpose, we will decompose the time series of each pixel into several components: trend, intra-annual variations, seasonal cycle, and stochastic stationary. We explore three such time series machine learning models that can characterize the non-stationary time series data and predict future values, including the Seasonal ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) (SARIMA), regression, and neural network. The results indicate that all these methods are effective at modelling Chl-a, FLH, and SST time series and predicting the values reasonably well. However, regression and neural network are found to be the best at predicting Chl-a in all types of water (turbid and shallow). Meanwhile, the SARIMA model provides the best prediction of FLH and SST.

Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field (GRF) by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the Spatial Mixed Effects (SME) model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an Alternating Expectation Conditional Maximization (AECM) algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature data set archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

We present a novel POMDP problem formulation for a robot that must autonomously decide where to go to collect new and scientifically relevant images given a limited ability to communicate with its human operator. From this formulation we derive constraints and design principles for the observation model, reward model, and communication strategy of such a robot, exploring techniques to deal with the very high-dimensional observation space and scarcity of relevant training data. We introduce a novel active reward learning strategy based on making queries to help the robot minimize path "regret" online, and evaluate it for suitability in autonomous visual exploration through simulations. We demonstrate that, in some bandwidth-limited environments, this novel regret-based criterion enables the robotic explorer to collect up to 17% more reward per mission than the next-best criterion.