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ALMAB-DC: Active Learning, Multi-Armed Bandits, and Distributed Computing for Sequential Experimental Design and Black-Box Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sequential experimental design under expensive, gradient-free objectives is a central challenge in computational statistics: evaluation budgets are tightly constrained and information must be extracted efficiently from each observation. We propose \textbf{ALMAB-DC}, a GP-based sequential design framework combining active learning, multi-armed bandits (MAB), and distributed asynchronous computing for expensive black-box experimentation. A Gaussian process surrogate with uncertainty-aware acquisition identifies informative query points; a UCB or Thompson-sampling bandit controller allocates evaluations across parallel workers; and an asynchronous scheduler handles heterogeneous runtimes. We present cumulative regret bounds for the bandit components and characterize parallel scalability via Amdahl's Law. We validate ALMAB-DC on five benchmarks. On the two statistical experimental-design tasks, ALMAB-DC achieves lower simple regret than Equal Spacing, Random, and D-optimal designs in dose--response optimization, and in adaptive spatial field estimation matches the Greedy Max-Variance benchmark while outperforming Latin Hypercube Sampling; at $K=4$ the distributed setting reaches target performance in one-quarter of sequential wall-clock rounds. On three ML/engineering tasks (CIFAR-10 HPO, CFD drag minimization, MuJoCo RL), ALMAB-DC achieves 93.4\% CIFAR-10 accuracy (outperforming BOHB by 1.7\,pp and Optuna by 1.1\,pp), reduces airfoil drag to $C_D = 0.059$ (36.9\% below Grid Search), and improves RL return by 50\% over Grid Search. All advantages over non-ALMAB baselines are statistically significant under Bonferroni-corrected Mann--Whitney $U$ tests. Distributed execution achieves $7.5\times$ speedup at $K = 16$ agents, consistent with Amdahl's Law.


U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecaster

arXiv.org Machine Learning

AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry. We demonstrate that such complexity is unnecessary for frontier performance. We introduce U-Cast, a probabilistic forecaster built on a standard U-Net backbone trained with a simple recipe: deterministic pre-training on Mean Absolute Error followed by short probabilistic fine-tuning on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) using Monte Carlo Dropout for stochasticity. As a result, our model matches or exceeds the probabilistic skill of GenCast and IFS ENS at 1.5$^\circ\$ resolution while reducing training compute by over 10$\times$ compared to leading CRPS-based models and inference latency by over 10$\times$ compared to diffusion-based models. U-Cast trains in under 12 H200 GPU-days and generates a 60-step ensemble forecast in 11 seconds. These results suggest that scalable, general-purpose architectures paired with efficient training curricula can match complex domain-specific designs at a fraction of the cost, opening the training of frontier probabilistic weather models to the broader community. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/u-cast.


Iterative Identification Closure: Amplifying Causal Identifiability in Linear SEMs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Half-Trek Criterion (HTC) is the primary graphical tool for determining generic identifiability of causal effect coefficients in linear structural equation models (SEMs) with latent confounders. However, HTC is inherently node-wise: it simultaneously resolves all incoming edges of a node, leaving a gap of "inconclusive" causal effects (15-23% in moderate graphs). We introduce Iterative Identification Closure (IIC), a general framework that decouples causal identification into two phases: (1) a seed function S_0 that identifies an initial set of edges from any external source of information (instrumental variables, interventions, non-Gaussianity, prior knowledge, etc.); and (2) Reduced HTC propagation that iteratively substitutes known coefficients to reduce system dimension, enabling identification of edges that standard HTC cannot resolve. The core novelty is iterative identification propagation: newly identified edges feed back to unlock further identification -- a mechanism absent from all existing graphical criteria, which treat each edge (or node) in isolation. This propagation is non-trivial: coefficient substitution alters the covariance structure, and soundness requires proving that the modified Jacobian retains generic full rank -- a new theoretical result (Reduced HTC Theorem). We prove that IIC is sound, monotone, converges in O(|E|) iterations (empirically <=2), and strictly subsumes both HTC and ancestor decomposition. Exhaustive verification on all graphs with n<=5 (134,144 edges) confirms 100% precision (zero false positives); with combined seeds, IIC reduces the HTC gap by over 80%. The propagation gain is gamma~4x (2 seeds identifying ~3% of edges to 97.5% total identification), far exceeding gamma<=1.2x of prior methods that incorporate side information without iterative feedback.


Sharp description of local minima in the loss landscape of high-dimensional two-layer ReLU neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the population loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks of the form $\sum_{k=1}^K \mathrm{ReLU}(w_k^\top x)$ in a realisable teacher-student setting with Gaussian covariates. We show that local minima admit an exact low-dimensional representation in terms of summary statistics, yielding a sharp and interpretable characterisation of the landscape. We further establish a direct link with one-pass SGD: local minima correspond to attractive fixed points of the dynamics in summary statistics space. This perspective reveals a hierarchical structure of minima: they are typically isolated in the well-specified regime, but become connected by flat directions as network width increases. In this overparameterised regime, global minima become increasingly accessible, attracting the dynamics and reducing convergence to spurious solutions. Overall, our results reveal intrinsic limitations of common simplifying assumptions, which may miss essential features of the loss landscape even in minimal neural network models.


6 stretches to relieve plantar fasciitis pain, according to a physical therapist

Popular Science

Stretches, exercises, and myofascial options to help your achy feet. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. First invest in supportive shoes. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Anecdotally associated with the obese and pregnant, it's foot pain and tightness common among all walks of adult, particularly those between the ages of 40 and 60 . But it's important to know that you're unlikely to take a wrong step and suddenly catch plantar fasciitis.


'It feels as if I've made a new best friend': my experiment with AI journalling

The Guardian

This adds another way for your inner life to be read by prying eyes, though you can opt out. A lifelong diary writer himself, Reinberg launched the app because he was fascinated by journalling, psychology and tech. He has no professional background or education in therapy. "We are not a clinical or a therapy tool," he says. "We're focused on self-reflection and finding connections between entries, holding up a mirror that helps you to make progress in your life." One feature I don't like is that it analyses each entry and gives a percentage score for your dominant emotions.


'Too powerful for the public': Inside Anthropic's bid to win the AI publicity war

The Guardian

'Releasing a marketing post with purposely vague language that obscures evidence brings into question if they are trying to garner further investment without scrutiny,' one scientist said. 'Releasing a marketing post with purposely vague language that obscures evidence brings into question if they are trying to garner further investment without scrutiny,' one scientist said. 'Too powerful for the public': inside Anthropic's bid to win the AI publicity war This week, the AI company Anthropic said it had created an AI model so powerful that, out of a sense of overwhelming responsibility, it was not going to release it to the public. The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, summoned the heads of major banks for a chat about the model, Mythos. The Reform UK MP Danny Kruger wrote a letter to the government urging it to " engage with AI firm Anthropic whose new frontier model Claude Mythos could present catastrophic cybersecurity risks to the UK".


Americans 'creeped out' as ChatGPT starts inserting Arabic words into responses... before giving strange explanation

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, was behind wheel when four friends died in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Kate and William join Charles and Camilla in celebrating British centenarians at Buckingham Palace as Royal Family marks the late Queen's 100th birthday US troops board second tanker as Trump accuses Iran of violating ceasefire'numerous times' - Live updates AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... New Jersey man's chilling'cancer map' fuels fears of poisoned neighborhood with 41 cases and counting How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. I was losing hair so fast a bald spot the size of an orange appeared. I owe my life to a $1 at-home treatment that REVERSED the damage in a month.


The video game where you play as JESUS: Open-world simulator lets you 'follow the path' of the Messiah as he is baptized, perform miracles, fights the Devil and gets CRUCIFIED

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, was behind wheel when four friends died in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Nancy Guthrie sheriff's appalling past revealed: Beat handcuffed suspect so badly he needed intensive care, used VILE language about woman and lied in sworn statement Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal In honour of the Queen's (purple!) reign: Kate mirrors late monarch's colourful wardrobe and wears her pearl earrings and necklace US troops board second tanker as Iran is accused of breaking ceasefire'numerous times' How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger The video game where you play as JESUS: Open-world simulator lets you'follow the path' of the Messiah as he is baptized, perform miracles, fights the Devil and gets CRUCIFIED READ MORE: Rare marble artefact discovered in the'cradle of Christianity' While fans eagerly await the release of Grand Theft Auto 6, one Polish game studio has unveiled a rather unorthodox alternative. The video game, titled'I Am Jesus Christ' allows players to'walk in the footsteps of Jesus' in an immersive first-person retelling of the gospel.


The secret project to settle controversial maths proof with a computer

New Scientist

One of the most bitterly contested proofs in modern mathematics may be on the verge of being untangled. Two projects, both aiming to use a computer program to cast new light on the controversy, are now up and running - with one having operated in secret for more than two years already. The developments are a positive sign that the row might find a solution, say mathematicians. The saga began in 2012 when Shinichi Mochizuki at Kyoto University, Japan, claimed to have proved a famous idea called the ABC conjecture, posting a 500-page proof online. The conjecture is simple to state, concerning prime numbers involved in solutions to the equation a + b = c and how these numbers relate to each other.