Africa
Demystifying Reinforcement Learning in Production Scheduling via Explainable AI
Fischer, Daniel, Hüsener, Hannah M., Grumbach, Felix, Vollenkemper, Lukas, Müller, Arthur, Reusch, Pascal
Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is a frequently employed technique to solve scheduling problems. Although DRL agents ace at delivering viable results in short computing times, their reasoning remains opaque. We conduct a case study where we systematically apply two explainable AI (xAI) frameworks, namely SHAP (DeepSHAP) and Captum (Input x Gradient), to describe the reasoning behind scheduling decisions of a specialized DRL agent in a flow production. We find that methods in the xAI literature lack falsifiability and consistent terminology, do not adequately consider domain-knowledge, the target audience or real-world scenarios, and typically provide simple input-output explanations rather than causal interpretations. To resolve this issue, we introduce a hypotheses-based workflow. This approach enables us to inspect whether explanations align with domain knowledge and match the reward hypotheses of the agent. We furthermore tackle the challenge of communicating these insights to third parties by tailoring hypotheses to the target audience, which can serve as interpretations of the agent's behavior after verification. Our proposed workflow emphasizes the repeated verification of explanations and may be applicable to various DRL-based scheduling use cases.
Sparse Uncertainty-Informed Sampling from Federated Streaming Data
Röder, Manuel, Schleif, Frank-Michael
We present a numerically robust, computationally efficient approach for non-I.I.D. data stream sampling in federated client systems, where resources are limited and labeled data for local model adaptation is sparse and expensive. The proposed method identifies relevant stream observations to optimize the underlying client model, given a local labeling budget, and performs instantaneous labeling decisions without relying on any memory buffering strategies. Our experiments show enhanced training batch diversity and an improved numerical robustness of the proposal compared to existing strategies over large-scale data streams, making our approach an effective and convenient solution in FL environments.
How machine learning is helping us probe the secret names of animals
Some similar research tactics were reported earlier this year by Mickey Pardo, a postdoctoral researcher, now at Cornell University, who spent 14 months in Kenya recording elephant calls. Elephants sound alarms by trumpeting, but in reality most of their vocalizations are deep rumbles that are only partly audible to humans. Pardo also found evidence that elephants use vocal labels, and he says he can definitely get an elephant's attention by playing the sound of another elephant addressing it. But does this mean researchers are now "speaking animal"? Real language, he thinks, would mean the ability to discuss things that happened in the past or string together more complex ideas.
Acceptable Use Policies for Foundation Models
As foundation models have accumulated hundreds of millions of users, developers have begun to take steps to prevent harmful types of uses. One salient intervention that foundation model developers adopt is acceptable use policies: legally binding policies that prohibit users from using a model for specific purposes. This paper identifies acceptable use policies from 30 foundation model developers, analyzes the use restrictions they contain, and argues that acceptable use policies are an important lens for understanding the regulation of foundation models. Taken together, developers' acceptable use policies include 127 distinct use restrictions; the wide variety in the number and type of use restrictions may create fragmentation across the AI supply chain. Developers also employ acceptable use policies to prevent competitors or specific industries from making use of their models. Developers alone decide what constitutes acceptable use, and rarely provide transparency about how they enforce their policies. In practice, acceptable use policies are difficult to enforce, and scrupulous enforcement can act as a barrier to researcher access and limit beneficial uses of foundation models. Nevertheless, acceptable use policies for foundation models are an early example of self-regulation that have a significant impact on the market for foundation models and the overall AI ecosystem.
Beyond Preferences in AI Alignment
Zhi-Xuan, Tan, Carroll, Micah, Franklin, Matija, Ashton, Hal
The dominant practice of AI alignment assumes (1) that preferences are an adequate representation of human values, (2) that human rationality can be understood in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of preferences, and (3) that AI systems should be aligned with the preferences of one or more humans to ensure that they behave safely and in accordance with our values. Whether implicitly followed or explicitly endorsed, these commitments constitute what we term a preferentist approach to AI alignment. In this paper, we characterize and challenge the preferentist approach, describing conceptual and technical alternatives that are ripe for further research. We first survey the limits of rational choice theory as a descriptive model, explaining how preferences fail to capture the thick semantic content of human values, and how utility representations neglect the possible incommensurability of those values. We then critique the normativity of expected utility theory (EUT) for humans and AI, drawing upon arguments showing how rational agents need not comply with EUT, while highlighting how EUT is silent on which preferences are normatively acceptable. Finally, we argue that these limitations motivate a reframing of the targets of AI alignment: Instead of alignment with the preferences of a human user, developer, or humanity-writ-large, AI systems should be aligned with normative standards appropriate to their social roles, such as the role of a general-purpose assistant. Furthermore, these standards should be negotiated and agreed upon by all relevant stakeholders. On this alternative conception of alignment, a multiplicity of AI systems will be able to serve diverse ends, aligned with normative standards that promote mutual benefit and limit harm despite our plural and divergent values.
Self-Alignment: Improving Alignment of Cultural Values in LLMs via In-Context Learning
Choenni, Rochelle, Shutova, Ekaterina
Improving the alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) with respect to the cultural values that they encode has become an increasingly important topic. In this work, we study whether we can exploit existing knowledge about cultural values at inference time to adjust model responses to cultural value probes. We present a simple and inexpensive method that uses a combination of in-context learning (ICL) and human survey data, and show that we can improve the alignment to cultural values across 5 models that include both English-centric and multilingual LLMs. Importantly, we show that our method could prove useful in test languages other than English and can improve alignment to the cultural values that correspond to a range of culturally diverse countries.
Machine learning models for daily rainfall forecasting in Northern Tropical Africa using tropical wave predictors
Satheesh, Athul Rasheeda, Knippertz, Peter, Fink, Andreas H.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often underperform compared to simpler climatology-based precipitation forecasts in northern tropical Africa, even after statistical postprocessing. AI-based forecasting models show promise but have avoided precipitation due to its complexity. Synoptic-scale forcings like African easterly waves and other tropical waves (TWs) are important for predictability in tropical Africa, yet their value for predicting daily rainfall remains unexplored. This study uses two machine-learning models--gamma regression and a convolutional neural network (CNN)--trained on TW predictors from satellite-based GPM IMERG data to predict daily rainfall during the July-September monsoon season. Predictor variables are derived from the local amplitude and phase information of seven TW from the target and up-and-downstream neighboring grids at 1-degree spatial resolution. The ML models are combined with Easy Uncertainty Quantification (EasyUQ) to generate calibrated probabilistic forecasts and are compared with three benchmarks: Extended Probabilistic Climatology (EPC15), ECMWF operational ensemble forecast (ENS), and a probabilistic forecast from the ENS control member using EasyUQ (CTRL EasyUQ). The study finds that downstream predictor variables offer the highest predictability, with downstream tropical depression (TD)-type wave-based predictors being most important. Other waves like mixed-Rossby gravity (MRG), Kelvin, and inertio-gravity waves also contribute significantly but show regional preferences. ENS forecasts exhibit poor skill due to miscalibration. CTRL EasyUQ shows improvement over ENS and marginal enhancement over EPC15. Both gamma regression and CNN forecasts significantly outperform benchmarks in tropical Africa. This study highlights the potential of ML models trained on TW-based predictors to improve daily precipitation forecasts in tropical Africa.
Measuring the Accuracy of Automatic Speech Recognition Solutions
Kuhn, Korbinian, Kersken, Verena, Reuter, Benedikt, Egger, Niklas, Zimmermann, Gottfried
For d/Deaf and hard of hearing (DHH) people, captioning is an essential accessibility tool. Significant developments in artificial intelligence (AI) mean that Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) is now a part of many popular applications. This makes creating captions easy and broadly available - but transcription needs high levels of accuracy to be accessible. Scientific publications and industry report very low error rates, claiming AI has reached human parity or even outperforms manual transcription. At the same time the DHH community reports serious issues with the accuracy and reliability of ASR. There seems to be a mismatch between technical innovations and the real-life experience for people who depend on transcription. Independent and comprehensive data is needed to capture the state of ASR. We measured the performance of eleven common ASR services with recordings of Higher Education lectures. We evaluated the influence of technical conditions like streaming, the use of vocabularies, and differences between languages. Our results show that accuracy ranges widely between vendors and for the individual audio samples. We also measured a significant lower quality for streaming ASR, which is used for live events. Our study shows that despite the recent improvements of ASR, common services lack reliability in accuracy.
Assessing Large Language Models for Online Extremism Research: Identification, Explanation, and New Knowledge
Dong, Beidi, Lee, Jin R., Zhu, Ziwei, Srinivasan, Balassubramanian
The United States has experienced a significant increase in violent extremism, prompting the need for automated tools to detect and limit the spread of extremist ideology online. This study evaluates the performance of Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and Generative Pre-Trained Transformers (GPT) in detecting and classifying online domestic extremist posts. We collected social media posts containing "far-right" and "far-left" ideological keywords and manually labeled them as extremist or non-extremist. Extremist posts were further classified into one or more of five contributing elements of extremism based on a working definitional framework. The BERT model's performance was evaluated based on training data size and knowledge transfer between categories. We also compared the performance of GPT 3.5 and GPT 4 models using different prompts: na\"ive, layperson-definition, role-playing, and professional-definition. Results showed that the best performing GPT models outperformed the best performing BERT models, with more detailed prompts generally yielding better results. However, overly complex prompts may impair performance. Different versions of GPT have unique sensitives to what they consider extremist. GPT 3.5 performed better at classifying far-left extremist posts, while GPT 4 performed better at classifying far-right extremist posts. Large language models, represented by GPT models, hold significant potential for online extremism classification tasks, surpassing traditional BERT models in a zero-shot setting. Future research should explore human-computer interactions in optimizing GPT models for extremist detection and classification tasks to develop more efficient (e.g., quicker, less effort) and effective (e.g., fewer errors or mistakes) methods for identifying extremist content.
A longitudinal sentiment analysis of Sinophobia during COVID-19 using large language models
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated xenophobia, particularly Sinophobia, leading to widespread discrimination against individuals of Chinese descent. Large language models (LLMs) are pre-trained deep learning models used for natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The ability of LLMs to understand and generate human-like text makes them particularly useful for analysing social media data to detect and evaluate sentiments. We present a sentiment analysis framework utilising LLMs for longitudinal sentiment analysis of the Sinophobic sentiments expressed in X (Twitter) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show a significant correlation between the spikes in Sinophobic tweets, Sinophobic sentiments and surges in COVID-19 cases, revealing that the evolution of the pandemic influenced public sentiment and the prevalence of Sinophobic discourse. Furthermore, the sentiment analysis revealed a predominant presence of negative sentiments, such as annoyance and denial, which underscores the impact of political narratives and misinformation shaping public opinion. The lack of empathetic sentiment which was present in previous studies related to COVID-19 highlights the way the political narratives in media viewed the pandemic and how it blamed the Chinese community. Our study highlights the importance of transparent communication in mitigating xenophobic sentiments during global crises.