Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental datasets. The abundance of data about disease outbreaks gives scientists an excellent opportunity to uncover patterns in disease spread and make future predictions. However, data over a sizeable geographic area quickly outpace human cognition. Our study area covers a significant portion of the African continent (about 17,885,000 km2). The data size makes computational analysis vital to assist human decision-makers. Methods: We first applied global and local spatial autocorrelation for malaria, cholera, meningitis, and yellow fever case counts. We then used machine learning to predict the weekly presence of these diseases in the second-level administrative district. Lastly, we used machine learning feature importance methods on the variables that affect spread. Results: Our spatial autocorrelation results show that geographic nearness is critical but varies in effect and space. Moreover, we identified many interesting hot and cold spots and spatial outliers. The machine learning model infers a binary class of cases or none with the best F1 score of 0.96 for malaria. Machine learning feature importance uncovered critical cultural and environmental factors affecting outbreaks and variations between diseases. Conclusions: Our study shows that data analytics and machine learning are vital to understanding and monitoring disease outbreaks locally across vast areas. The speed at which these methods produce insights can be critical during epidemics and emergencies.

Language agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating web-based tasks, though their current reactive approaches still underperform largely compared to humans. While incorporating advanced planning algorithms, particularly tree search methods, could enhance these agents' performance, implementing tree search directly on live websites poses significant safety risks and practical constraints due to irreversible actions such as confirming a purchase. In this paper, we introduce a novel paradigm that augments language agents with model-based planning, pioneering the innovative use of large language models (LLMs) as world models in complex web environments. Our method, WebDreamer, builds on the key insight that LLMs inherently encode comprehensive knowledge about website structures and functionalities. Specifically, WebDreamer uses LLMs to simulate outcomes for each candidate action (e.g., "what would happen if I click this button?") using natural language descriptions, and then evaluates these imagined outcomes to determine the optimal action at each step. Empirical results on two representative web agent benchmarks with online interaction -- VisualWebArena and Mind2Web-live -- demonstrate that WebDreamer achieves substantial improvements over reactive baselines. By establishing the viability of LLMs as world models in web environments, this work lays the groundwork for a paradigm shift in automated web interaction. More broadly, our findings open exciting new avenues for future research into 1) optimizing LLMs specifically for world modeling in complex, dynamic environments, and 2) model-based speculative planning for language agents.

How could LLMs influence our democracy? We investigate LLMs' political leanings and the potential influence of LLMs on voters by conducting multiple experiments in a U.S. presidential election context. Through a voting simulation, we first demonstrate 18 open- and closed-weight LLMs' political preference for a Democratic nominee over a Republican nominee. We show how this leaning towards the Democratic nominee becomes more pronounced in instruction-tuned models compared to their base versions by analyzing their responses to candidate-policy related questions. We further explore the potential impact of LLMs on voter choice by conducting an experiment with 935 U.S. registered voters. During the experiments, participants interacted with LLMs (Claude-3, Llama-3, and GPT-4) over five exchanges. The experiment results show a shift in voter choices towards the Democratic nominee following LLM interaction, widening the voting margin from 0.7% to 4.6%, even though LLMs were not asked to persuade users to support the Democratic nominee during the discourse. This effect is larger than many previous studies on the persuasiveness of political campaigns, which have shown minimal effects in presidential elections. Many users also expressed a desire for further political interaction with LLMs. Which aspects of LLM interactions drove these shifts in voter choice requires further study. Lastly, we explore how a safety method can make LLMs more politically neutral, while raising the question of whether such neutrality is truly the path forward.

We study the regret in stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) with multiple agents that communicate over an arbitrary connected communication graph. We show a near-optimal individual regret bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{AT/m}+A)$, where $A$ is the number of actions, $T$ the time horizon, and $m$ the number of agents. In particular, assuming a sufficient number of agents, we achieve a regret bound of $\tilde{O}(A)$, which is independent of the sub-optimality gaps and the diameter of the communication graph. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to show an individual regret bound in cooperative stochastic MAB that is independent of the graph's diameter and applicable to non-fully-connected communication graphs.

The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity--especially exclusion restrictions--is largely rhetorical. We propose using large language models (LLMs) to search for new IVs through narratives and counterfactual reasoning, similar to how a human researcher would. The stark difference, however, is that LLMs can dramatically accelerate this process and explore an extremely large search space. We demonstrate how to construct prompts to search for potentially valid IVs. We contend that multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies are effective for simulating the endogenous decision-making processes of economic agents and for navigating language models through the realm of real-world scenarios. We apply our method to three well-known examples in economics: returns to schooling, supply and demand, and peer effects. We then extend our strategy to finding (i) control variables in regression and difference-in-differences and (ii) running variables in regression discontinuity designs.

A crash between two double-decker buses close to a city centre has left 13 people needing hospital treatment. Two Bee Network buses crashed on Rochdale Road off Livesey Street, Manchester, but no-one was seriously injured, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said. Images show debris strewn across the highway as one of the vehicles appeared to have hit the back of the other. A GMP spokesman said the road remained shut while emergency services were at the scene.PatKarneyAn air ambulance was seen at the site of the crash on Rochdale Road Police were called to the incident at about 08:30 GMT. Manchester councillor Pat Karney, who was at the site, posted on X to say there had been "unbelievable damage" to the front of the bus.

Data is the new oil of the 21st century. The growing trend of trading data for greater welfare has led to the emergence of data markets. A data market is any mechanism whereby the exchange of data products including datasets and data derivatives takes place as a result of data buyers and data sellers being in contact with one another, either directly or through mediating agents. It serves as a coordinating mechanism by which several functions, including the pricing and the distribution of data as the most important ones, interact to make the value of data fully exploited and enhanced. In this article, we present a comprehensive survey of this important and emerging direction from the aspects of data search, data productization, data transaction, data pricing, revenue allocation as well as privacy, security, and trust issues. We also investigate the government policies and industry status of data markets across different countries and different domains. Finally, we identify the unresolved challenges and discuss possible future directions for the development of data markets.

Internet of Things and Deep Learning are synergetically and exponentially growing industrial fields with a massive call for their unification into a common framework called Edge AI. While on-device inference is a well-explored topic in recent research, backpropagation remains an open challenge due to its prohibitive computational and memory costs compared to the extreme resource constraints of embedded devices. Drawing on tensor decomposition research, we tackle the main bottleneck of backpropagation, namely the memory footprint of activation map storage. We investigate and compare the effects of activation compression using Singular Value Decomposition and its tensor variant, High-Order Singular Value Decomposition. The application of low-order decomposition results in considerable memory savings while preserving the features essential for learning, and also offers theoretical guarantees to convergence. Experimental results obtained on main-stream architectures and tasks demonstrate Pareto-superiority over other state-of-the-art solutions, in terms of the trade-off between generalization and memory footprint.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often encounter conflicts between their learned, internal (parametric knowledge, PK) and external knowledge provided during inference (contextual knowledge, CK). Understanding how LLMs models prioritize one knowledge source over the other remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose a novel probing framework to explore the mechanisms governing the selection between PK and CK in LLMs. Using controlled prompts designed to contradict the model's PK, we demonstrate that specific model activations are indicative of the knowledge source employed. We evaluate this framework on various LLMs of different sizes and demonstrate that mid-layer activations, particularly those related to relations in the input, are crucial in predicting knowledge source selection, paving the way for more reliable models capable of handling knowledge conflicts effectively.

Teasers are an effective tool for promoting content in entertainment, commercial and educational fields. However, creating an effective teaser for long videos is challenging for it requires long-range multimodal modeling on the input videos, while necessitating maintaining audiovisual alignments, managing scene changes and preserving factual accuracy for the output teasers. Due to the lack of a publicly-available dataset, progress along this research direction has been hindered. In this work, we present DocumentaryNet, a collection of 1,269 documentaries paired with their teasers, featuring multimodal data streams of video, speech, music, sound effects and narrations. With DocumentaryNet, we propose a new two-stage system for generating teasers from long documentaries. The proposed TeaserGen system first generates the teaser narration from the transcribed narration of the documentary using a pretrained large language model, and then selects the most relevant visual content to accompany the generated narration through language-vision models. For narration-video matching, we explore two approaches: a pretraining-based model using pretrained contrastive language-vision models and a deep sequential model that learns the mapping between the narrations and visuals. Our experimental results show that the pretraining-based approach is more effective at identifying relevant visual content than directly trained deep autoregressive models.