Long-term groundwater level (GWL) measurement is vital for effective policymaking and recharge estimation using annual maxima and minima. However, current methods prioritize short-term predictions and lack multi-year applicability, limiting their utility. Moreover, sparse in-situ measurements lead to reliance on low-resolution satellite data like GLDAS as the ground truth for Machine Learning models, further constraining accuracy. To overcome these challenges, we first develop an ML model to mitigate data gaps, achieving $R^2$ scores of 0.855 and 0.963 for maximum and minimum GWL predictions, respectively. Subsequently, using these predictions and well observations as ground truth, we train an Upsampling Model that uses low-resolution (25 km) GLDAS data as input to produce high-resolution (2 km) GWLs, achieving an excellent $R^2$ score of 0.96. Our approach successfully upscales GLDAS data for 2003-2024, allowing high-resolution recharge estimations and revealing critical trends for proactive resource management. Our method allows upsampling of groundwater storage (GWS) from GLDAS to high-resolution GWLs for any points independently of officially curated piezometer data, making it a valuable tool for decision-making.

Data-driven storytelling has gained prominence in journalism and other data reporting fields. However, the process of creating these stories remains challenging, often requiring the integration of effective visualizations with compelling narratives to form a cohesive, interactive presentation. To help streamline this process, we present an integrated authoring framework and system, DataWeaver, that supports both visualization-to-text and text-to-visualization composition. DataWeaver enables users to create data narratives anchored to data facts derived from "call-out" interactions, i.e., user-initiated highlights of visualization elements that prompt relevant narrative content. In addition to this "vis-to-text" composition, DataWeaver also supports a "text-initiated" approach, generating relevant interactive visualizations from existing narratives. Key findings from an evaluation with 13 participants highlighted the utility and usability of DataWeaver and the effectiveness of its integrated authoring framework. The evaluation also revealed opportunities to enhance the framework by refining filtering mechanisms and visualization recommendations and better support authoring creativity by introducing advanced customization options.

Understanding and mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for ensuring reliable content generation. While previous research has primarily focused on "when" LLMs hallucinate, our work explains "why" and directly links model behaviour to the pre-training data that forms their prior knowledge. Specifically, we demonstrate that an asymmetry exists in the recognition of logically equivalent facts, which can be attributed to frequency discrepancies of entities appearing as subjects versus objects. Given that most pre-training datasets are inaccessible, we leverage the fully open-source OLMo series by indexing its Dolma dataset to estimate entity frequencies. Using relational facts (represented as triples) from Wikidata5M, we construct probing datasets to isolate this effect. Our experiments reveal that facts with a high-frequency subject and a low-frequency object are better recognised than their inverse, despite their logical equivalence. The pattern reverses in low-to-high frequency settings, and no statistically significant asymmetry emerges when both entities are high-frequency. These findings highlight the influential role of pre-training data in shaping model predictions and provide insights for inferring the characteristics of pre-training data in closed or partially closed LLMs.

This paper introduces the largest and most comprehensive dataset of US presidential campaign television advertisements, available in digital format. The dataset also includes machine-searchable transcripts and high-quality summaries designed to facilitate a variety of academic research. To date, there has been great interest in collecting and analyzing US presidential campaign advertisements, but the need for manual procurement and annotation led many to rely on smaller subsets. We design a large-scale parallelized, AI-based analysis pipeline that automates the laborious process of preparing, transcribing, and summarizing videos. We then apply this methodology to the 9,707 presidential ads from the Julian P. Kanter Political Commercial Archive. We conduct extensive human evaluations to show that these transcripts and summaries match the quality of manually generated alternatives. We illustrate the value of this data by including an application that tracks the genesis and evolution of current focal issue areas over seven decades of presidential elections. Our analysis pipeline and codebase also show how to use LLM-based tools to obtain high-quality summaries for other video datasets.

We show that the behavior of stochastic gradient descent is related to Bayesian statistics by showing that SGD is effectively diffusion on a fractal landscape, where the fractal dimension can be accounted for in a purely Bayesian way. By doing this we show that SGD can be regarded as a modified Bayesian sampler which accounts for accessibility constraints induced by the fractal structure of the loss landscape. We verify our results experimentally by examining the diffusion of weights during training. These results offer insight into the factors which determine the learning process, and seemingly answer the question of how SGD and purely Bayesian sampling are related.

Efficient nutrient management and precise fertilization are essential for advancing modern agriculture, particularly in regions striving to optimize crop yields sustainably. The AgroLens project endeavors to address this challenge by develop ing Machine Learning (ML)-based methodologies to predict soil nutrient levels without reliance on laboratory tests. By leveraging state of the art techniques, the project lays a foundation for acionable insights to improve agricultural productivity in resource-constrained areas, such as Africa. The approach begins with the development of a robust European model using the LUCAS Soil dataset and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to estimate key soil properties, including phosphorus, potassium, nitrogen, and pH levels. This model is then enhanced by integrating supplementary features, such as weather data, harvest rates, and Clay AI-generated embeddings. This report details the methodological framework, data preprocessing strategies, and ML pipelines employed in this project. Advanced algorithms, including Random Forests, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Fully Connected Neural Networks (FCNN), were implemented and finetuned for precise nutrient prediction. Results showcase robust model performance, with root mean square error values meeting stringent accuracy thresholds. By establishing a reproducible and scalable pipeline for soil nutrient prediction, this research paves the way for transformative agricultural applications, including precision fertilization and improved resource allocation in underresourced regions like Africa.

Aerial and satellite imagery are inherently complementary remote sensing sources, offering high-resolution detail alongside expansive spatial coverage. However, the use of these sources for land cover segmentation introduces several challenges, prompting the development of a variety of segmentation methods. Among these approaches, the DeepLabV3+ architecture is considered as a promising approach in the field of single-source image segmentation. However, despite its reliable results for segmentation, there is still a need to increase its robustness and improve its performance. This is particularly crucial for multimodal image segmentation, where the fusion of diverse types of information is essential. An interesting approach involves enhancing this architectural framework through the integration of novel components and the modification of certain internal processes. In this paper, we enhance the DeepLabV3+ architecture by introducing a new transposed conventional layers block for upsampling a second entry to fuse it with high level features. This block is designed to amplify and integrate information from satellite images, thereby enriching the segmentation process through fusion with aerial images. For experiments, we used the LandCover.ai (Land Cover from Aerial Imagery) dataset for aerial images, alongside the corresponding dataset sourced from Sentinel 2 data. Through the fusion of both sources, the mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) achieved a total mIoU of 84.91% without data augmentation.

Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which limits their capacity. In contrast, statistical methods often lack robustness due to short historical records. Recent works propose machine learning methods trained on climate model output, leveraging larger sample sizes and simulated scenarios. Yet, many of these studies focus on prediction tasks that might be restricted in spatial extent or temporal coverage, opening a gap with existing operational predictions. Thus, the present study evaluates the effectiveness of a methodology that combines variational inference with transformer models to predict fields of seasonal anomalies. The predictions cover all four seasons and are initialised one month before the start of each season. The model was trained on climate model output from CMIP6 and tested using ERA5 reanalysis data. We analyse the method's performance in predicting interannual anomalies beyond the climate change-induced trend. We also test the proposed methodology in a regional context with a use case focused on Europe. While climate change trends dominate the skill of temperature predictions, the method presents additional skill over the climatological forecast in regions influenced by known teleconnections. We reach similar conclusions based on the validation of precipitation predictions. Despite underperforming SEAS5 in most tropics, our model offers added value in numerous extratropical inland regions. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of training generative models on climate model output for seasonal predictions, providing skilful predictions beyond the induced climate change trend at time scales and lead times relevant for user applications.

Rapid advancements in Visual Language Models (VLMs) have transformed multimodal understanding but are often constrained by generating English responses regardless of the input language. This phenomenon has been termed as Image-induced Fidelity Loss (IFL) and stems from limited multimodal multilingual training data. To address this, we propose a continuous multilingual integration strategy that injects text-only multilingual data during visual instruction tuning, preserving the language model's original multilingual capabilities. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our approach significantly improves linguistic fidelity across languages without degradation in visual performance. We also explore model merging, which improves language fidelity but comes at the cost of visual performance. In contrast, our core method achieves robust multilingual alignment without trade-offs, offering a scalable and effective path to mitigating IFL for global VLM adoption.

It's fairly unusual for high-profile games set in the UK to be set outside London. While indie games - such as the Shropshire-set Everybody's Gone to the Rapture and last year's Barnsley-based laughfest Thank Goodness You're Here! - have ventured further north, bigger games haven't tended to stray beyond the M25. Jason says the US is about 40% of the video games market, so it's important to appeal to players there, and there's a "natural tendency" to follow the norms. Being an independent company, he feels, allows Rebellion to do things differently, and Britain offers lots of inspiration for new settings - if you're prepared to look for them. "The UK, I think, to understand certain aspects of our culture, you've got to dig into it a little bit because we tend to understate things quite a lot."