There was a young lady called Aisha who lived in the wide and varied continent of Africa. Aisha dreamt of opening her jewelry store one day when she and her family resided in a tiny town. Yet she quickly saw that the absence of financial services in her town impeded her ability to accomplish her aspirations. Aisha and her family often encountered difficult and expensive processes even when they could visit banks despite traveling great distances. But suddenly, a miraculous event took place.

Strolling down the picturesque paths surrounding Felixstowe, a port town on the heath-speckled coast of southern England, it's hard to imagine that such a peaceful-looking place has played host to events that disrupted the global logistics industry. The connected and interdependent nature of our modern economy means that when port workers in Felixstowe went on an eight-day strike in September 2022, it caused major issues around the world. What's more, "once-in-a-generation" events are becoming the new normal, producing even greater upheaval and begging the question: "Can supply chain technology come to the rescue?" The last three years have redefined what global supply chain disruption means. The COVID-19 pandemic, Suez Canal blockage and port congestion have brought chaos to many companies' logistics operations.

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various forecasting methods in terms of out of the box forecasting performance on a broad set of simulated time series. We simulate various linear and non-linear time series and look at the one step forecast performance of statistical learning methods.

Deep neural networks have been successful in many reinforcement learning settings. However, compared to human learners they are overly data hungry. To build a sample-efficient world model, we apply a transformer to real-world episodes in an autoregressive manner: not only the compact latent states and the taken actions but also the experienced or predicted rewards are fed into the transformer, so that it can attend flexibly to all three modalities at different time steps. The transformer allows our world model to access previous states directly, instead of viewing them through a compressed recurrent state. By utilizing the Transformer-XL architecture, it is able to learn long-term dependencies while staying computationally efficient. Our transformer-based world model (TWM) generates meaningful, new experience, which is used to train a policy that outperforms previous model-free and model-based reinforcement learning algorithms on the Atari 100k benchmark.

Sparse tensors are prevalent in many data-intensive applications, yet existing differentiable programming frameworks are tailored towards dense tensors. This presents a significant challenge for efficiently computing gradients through sparse tensor operations, as their irregular sparsity patterns can result in substantial memory and computational overheads. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that enables the efficient and automatic differentiation of sparse tensors, addressing this fundamental issue. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in terms of performance and scalability, outperforming state-of-the-art frameworks across a range of synthetic and real-world datasets. Our approach offers a promising direction for enabling efficient and scalable differentiable programming with sparse tensors, which has significant implications for numerous applications in machine learning, natural language processing, and scientific computing.

The field of natural language processing (NLP) has made significant strides in recent years, particularly in the development of large-scale vision-language models (VLMs). These models aim to bridge the gap between text and visual information, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of multimedia data. However, as these models become larger and more complex, they also become more challenging to train and deploy. One approach to addressing this challenge is the use of sparsely-gated mixture-of-experts (MoE) techniques, which divide the model into smaller, specialized sub-models that can jointly solve a task. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of MoE in scaling vision-language models, demonstrating its potential to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a range of benchmarks over dense models of equivalent computational cost. Our research offers valuable insights into stabilizing the training of MoE models, understanding the impact of MoE on model interpretability, and balancing the trade-offs between compute performance when scaling VLMs. We hope our work will inspire further research into the use of MoE for scaling large-scale vision-language models and other multimodal machine learning applications.

We propose methods for density estimation and data synthesis using a novel form of unsupervised random forests. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, we implement a recursive procedure in which trees gradually learn structural properties of the data through alternating rounds of generation and discrimination. The method is provably consistent under minimal assumptions. Unlike classic tree-based alternatives, our approach provides smooth (un)conditional densities and allows for fully synthetic data generation. We achieve comparable or superior performance to state-of-the-art probabilistic circuits and deep learning models on various tabular data benchmarks while executing about two orders of magnitude faster on average. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{arf}$, is available on $\texttt{CRAN}$.

Our concern is the problem of determining the data complexity of answering an ontology-mediated query (OMQ) formulated in linear temporal logic LTL over (Z,<) and deciding whether it is rewritable to an FO(<)-query, possibly with some extra predicates. First, we observe that, in line with the circuit complexity and FO-definability of regular languages, OMQ answering in AC0, ACC0 and NC1 coincides with FO(<,≡)-rewritability using unary predicates x ≡ 0 (mod n), FO(<,MOD)-rewritability, and FO(RPR)-rewritability using relational primitive recursion, respectively. We prove that, similarly to known PSᴘᴀᴄᴇ-completeness of recognising FO(<)-definability of regular languages, deciding FO(<,≡)- and FO(<,MOD)-definability is also PSᴘᴀᴄᴇ-complete (unless ACC0 = NC1). We then use this result to show that deciding FO(<)-, FO(<,≡)- and FO(<,MOD)-rewritability of LTL OMQs is ExᴘSᴘᴀᴄᴇ-complete, and that these problems become PSᴘᴀᴄᴇ-complete for OMQs with a linear Horn ontology and an atomic query, and also a positive query in the cases of FO(<)- and FO(<,≡)-rewritability. Further, we consider FO(<)-rewritability of OMQs with a binary-clause ontology and identify OMQ classes, for which deciding it is PSᴘᴀᴄᴇ-, Π2p- and coNP-complete.

The Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) statistical data analysis framework integrates machine learning, statistical theory, and statistical inference to provide a least biased, efficient and robust strategy for estimation and inference of a variety of statistical and causal parameters. We describe and evaluate the epidemiological applications that have benefited from recent methodological developments. We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed for articles that applied any form of TMLE in observational studies. We summarised the epidemiological discipline, geographical location, expertise of the authors, and TMLE methods over time. We used the Roadmap of Targeted Learning and Causal Inference to extract key methodological aspects of the publications. We showcase the contributions to the literature of these TMLE results. Of the 81 publications included, 25% originated from the University of California at Berkeley, where the framework was first developed by Professor Mark van der Laan. By the first half of 2022, 70% of the publications originated from outside the United States and explored up to 7 different epidemiological disciplines in 2021-22. Double-robustness, bias reduction and model misspecification were the main motivations that drew researchers towards the TMLE framework. Through time, a wide variety of methodological, tutorial and software-specific articles were cited, owing to the constant growth of methodological developments around TMLE. There is a clear dissemination trend of the TMLE framework to various epidemiological disciplines and to increasing numbers of geographical areas. The availability of R packages, publication of tutorial papers, and involvement of methodological experts in applied publications have contributed to an exponential increase in the number of studies that understood the benefits, and adoption, of TMLE.

Nowadays, numerous applications incorporate machine learning (ML) algorithms due to their prominent achievements. However, many studies in the field of computer vision have shown that ML can be fooled by intentionally crafted instances, called adversarial examples. These adversarial examples take advantage of the intrinsic vulnerability of ML models. Recent research raises many concerns in the cybersecurity field. An increasing number of researchers are studying the feasibility of such attacks on security systems based on ML algorithms, such as Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). The feasibility of such adversarial attacks would be influenced by various domain-specific constraints. This can potentially increase the difficulty of crafting adversarial examples. Despite the considerable amount of research that has been done in this area, much of it focuses on showing that it is possible to fool a model using features extracted from the raw data but does not address the practical side, i.e., the reverse transformation from theory to practice. For this reason, we propose a review browsing through various important papers to provide a comprehensive analysis. Our analysis highlights some challenges that have not been addressed in the reviewed papers.