Turbulent flow fields are characterized by extreme events that are statistically intermittent and carry a significant amount of energy and physical importance. To emulate these flows, we introduce the extreme variational Autoencoder (xVAE), which embeds a max-infinitely divisible process with heavy-tailed distributions into a standard VAE framework, enabling accurate modeling of extreme events. xVAEs are neural network models that reduce system dimensionality by learning non-linear latent representations of data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of xVAE in large-eddy simulation data of wildland fire plumes, where intense heat release and complex plume-atmosphere interactions generate extreme turbulence. Comparisons with the commonly used Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes show that xVAE is more robust in capturing extreme values and provides a powerful uncertainty quantification framework using variational Bayes. Additionally, xVAE enables analysis of the so-called copulas of fields to assess risks associated with rare events while rigorously accounting for uncertainty, such as simultaneous exceedances of high thresholds across multiple locations. The proposed approach provides a new direction for studying realistic turbulent flows, such as high-speed aerodynamics, space propulsion, and atmospheric and oceanic systems that are characterized by extreme events.

Many real-world processes have complex tail dependence structures that cannot be characterized using classical Gaussian processes. More flexible spatial extremes models exhibit appealing extremal dependence properties but are often exceedingly prohibitive to fit and simulate from in high dimensions. In this paper, we develop a new spatial extremes model that has flexible and non-stationary dependence properties, and we integrate it in the encoding-decoding structure of a variational autoencoder (XVAE), whose parameters are estimated via variational Bayes combined with deep learning. The XVAE can be used as a spatio-temporal emulator that characterizes the distribution of potential mechanistic model output states and produces outputs that have the same statistical properties as the inputs, especially in the tail. As an aside, our approach also provides a novel way of making fast inference with complex extreme-value processes. Through extensive simulation studies, we show that our XVAE is substantially more time-efficient than traditional Bayesian inference while also outperforming many spatial extremes models with a stationary dependence structure. To further demonstrate the computational power of the XVAE, we analyze a high-resolution satellite-derived dataset of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea, which includes 30 years of daily measurements at 16703 grid cells. We find that the extremal dependence strength is weaker in the interior of Red Sea and it has decreased slightly over time.