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Abstract--This study investigates how human motion cues can be used to design expressive robot-arm movements. Using the imperfect-information game Geister, we analyzed two types of human piece-moving motions: natural gameplay (unconscious tendencies) and instructed expressions (intentional cues). Based on these findings, we created phase-specific robot motions by varying movement speed and stop duration, and evaluated observer impressions under two presentation modalities: a physical robot and a recorded video. Results indicate that late-phase motion timing, particularly during withdrawal, plays an important role in impression formation and that physical embodiment enhances the interpretability of motion cues. These findings provide insights for designing expressive robot motions based on human timing behavior .

Background Large language models (LLMs) face challenges in inductive thematic analysis, a task requiring deep interpretive and domain-specific expertise. We evaluated the feasibility of using LLMs to replicate expert-driven thematic analysis of social media data. Methods Using two temporally non-intersecting Reddit datasets on xylazine (n=286 and n=686, for model optimization and validation, respectively) with twelve expert-derived themes, we evaluated five LLMs against expert coding. We modeled the task as a series of binary classifications, rather than a single, multi-label classification, employing zero-, single-, and few-shot prompting strategies and measuring performance via accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Results On the validation set, GPT-4o with two-shot prompting performed best (accuracy: 90.9%; F1-score: 0.71). For high-prevalence themes, model-derived thematic distributions closely mirrored expert classifications (e.g., xylazine use: 13.6% vs. 17.8%; MOUD use: 16.5% vs. 17.8%). Conclusions Our findings suggest that few-shot LLM-based approaches can automate thematic analyses, offering a scalable supplement for qualitative research. Keywords: thematic analysis, large language models, natural language processing, qualitative analysis, social media, prompt engineering, public health

The risk of financial fraud is increasing as digital payments are used more and more frequently. Although the use of artificial intelligence systems for fraud detection is widespread, society and regulators have raised the standards for these systems' transparency for reliability verification purposes. To increase their effectiveness in conducting fraud investigations, fraud analysts also profit from having concise and understandable explanations. To solve these challenges, the paper will concentrate on developing an explainable fraud detector.

The Lebanese military says two soldiers have been killed and two wounded as they investigated an Israeli drone crash in southern Lebanon. The army said the downed Israeli drone exploded on Thursday during an inspection at the crash site in the Naqoura area, not far from Lebanon's border with Israel. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun offered condolences to the soldiers who were killed and injured, stressing that the military "is paying, in blood, the price of preserving stability in the south" of the country. The deadly incident came as Israel has been carrying out near-daily attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire reached with Hezbollah in November. It also coincides with a United Nations Security Council vote to wind down a UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, which has for decades been tasked with maintaining a buffer between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces.

Forecasting in real-world settings requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information, often available in textual form. While recent work has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effective context-aided forecasters via naïve direct prompting, their full potential remains underexplored. We address this gap with 4 strategies, providing new insights into the zero-shot capabilities of LLMs in this setting. ReDP improves interpretability by eliciting explicit reasoning traces, allowing us to assess the model's reasoning over the context independently from its forecast accuracy. CorDP leverages LLMs solely to refine existing forecasts with context, enhancing their applicability in real-world forecasting pipelines. IC-DP proposes embedding historical examples of context-aided forecasting tasks in the prompt, substantially improving accuracy even for the largest models. Finally, RouteDP optimizes resource efficiency by using LLMs to estimate task difficulty, and routing the most challenging tasks to larger models. Evaluated on different kinds of context-aided forecasting tasks from the CiK benchmark, our strategies demonstrate distinct benefits over naïve prompting across LLMs of different sizes and families. These results open the door to further simple yet effective improvements in LLM-based context-aided forecasting. 1

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant improvements in reasoning capabilities through supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. However, when training reasoning models, these approaches are primarily applicable to specific domains such as mathematics and programming, which imposes fundamental constraints on the breadth and scalability of training data. In contrast, continual pretraining (CPT) offers the advantage of not requiring task-specific signals. Nevertheless, how to effectively synthesize training data for reasoning and how such data affect a wide range of domains remain largely unexplored. This study provides a detailed evaluation of Reasoning CPT, a form of CPT that uses synthetic data to reconstruct the hidden thought processes underlying texts, based on the premise that texts are the result of the author's thinking process. Specifically, we apply Reasoning CPT to Gemma2-9B using synthetic data with hidden thoughts derived from STEM and Law corpora, and compare it to standard CPT on the MMLU benchmark. Our analysis reveals that Reasoning CPT consistently improves performance across all evaluated domains. Notably, reasoning skills acquired in one domain transfer effectively to others; the performance gap with conventional methods widens as problem difficulty increases, with gains of up to 8 points on the most challenging problems. Furthermore, models trained with hidden thoughts learn to adjust the depth of their reasoning according to problem difficulty.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to demonstrate imbalanced biases against certain groups. However, the study of unprovoked targeted attacks by LLMs towards at-risk populations remains underexplored. Our paper presents three novel contributions: (1) the explicit evaluation of LLM-generated attacks on highly vulnerable mental health groups; (2) a network-based framework to study the propagation of relative biases; and (3) an assessment of the relative degree of stigmatization that emerges from these attacks. Our analysis of a recently released large-scale bias audit dataset reveals that mental health entities occupy central positions within attack narrative networks, as revealed by a significantly higher mean centrality of closeness (p-value = 4.06e-10) and dense clustering (Gini coefficient = 0.7). Drawing from sociological foundations of stigmatization theory, our stigmatization analysis indicates increased labeling components for mental health disorder-related targets relative to initial targets in generation chains. Taken together, these insights shed light on the structural predilections of large language models to heighten harmful discourse and highlight the need for suitable approaches for mitigation.

Last year, the Africa Cup of Nations, the continent's biggest international soccer tournament, kicked off in Côte d'Ivoire, in a stadium designed, financed, and built by China. This should not come as a surprise to anyone who follows the sport, nor is it some new development. The first Chinese-made stadium in Africa was completed more than fifty years ago. By the end of the millennium, nine more African countries would open their capital cities to what came to be known as "stadium diplomacy." The quantity and scale of these stadiums grew alongside an increasingly robust push to quickly build infrastructure in poor African countries.