Accurate nowcasting of convective storms remains a major challenge for operational forecasting, particularly for convective initiation and the evolution of high-impact rainfall and strong winds. Here we present FuXi-Nowcast, a deep-learning system that jointly predicts composite radar reflectivity, surface precipitation, near-surface temperature, wind speed and wind gusts at 1-km resolution over eastern China. FuXi-Nowcast integrates multi-source observations, such as radar, surface stations and the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), with three-dimensional atmospheric fields from the machine-learning weather model FuXi-2.0 within a multi-task Swin-Transformer architecture. A convective signal enhancement module and distribution-aware hybrid loss functions are designed to preserve intense convective structures and mitigate the rapid intensity decay common in deep-learning nowcasts. FuXi-Nowcast surpasses the operational CMA-MESO 3-km numerical model in Critical Success Index for reflectivity, precipitation and wind gusts across thresholds and lead times up to 12 h, with the largest gains for heavy rainfall. Case studies further show that FuXi-Nowcast more accurately captures the timing, location and structure of convective initiation and subsequent evolution of convection. These results demonstrate that coupling three-dimensional machine-learning forecasts with high-resolution observations can provide multi-hazard, long-lead nowcasts that outperforms current operational systems.

But severe turbulence is set to get even worse - with climate change to blame. That's according to Professor Lance M Leslie and Milton Speer from the University of Technology Sydney, who have discovered a link between'freak wind gusts' and global warming. Using machine learning techniques, the pair found that heat and moisture are'key ingredients' for dangerous wind gusts known as'downbursts.' Downbursts can wreak havoc during takeoff and landing, causing planes to dangerously gain or lose altitude. Based on their findings, the scientists are calling for air safety authorities and airlines to be'more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.' 'Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing,' they explained in an article for The Conversation.

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on a 0.25{\deg} global grid. For thunderstorms, these environments can be empirically post-processed to predict wind gust distributions at specific locations. With the Pangu-Weather NWM, we apply a hierarchy of statistical and deep learning post-processing methods to forecast hourly wind gusts up to three days ahead. To ensure statistical robustness, we constrain our probabilistic forecasts using generalised extreme-value distributions across five regions in Switzerland. Using a convolutional neural network to post-process the predicted atmospheric environment's spatial patterns yields the best results, outperforming direct forecasting approaches across lead times and wind gust speeds. Our results confirm the added value of NWMs for extreme wind forecasting, especially for designing more responsive early-warning systems.

Machine learning has shown promise in reducing bias in numerical weather model predictions of wind gusts. Yet, they underperform to predict high gusts even with additional observations due to the right-skewed distribution of gusts. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) addresses this by identifying when predictions are reliable or needs cautious interpretation. Using data from 61 extratropical storms in the Northeastern USA, we introduce evidential neural network (ENN) as a novel approach for UQ in gust predictions, leveraging atmospheric variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as features and gust observations as targets. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques demonstrated that key predictive features also contributed to higher uncertainty. Estimated uncertainty correlated with storm intensity and spatial gust gradients. ENN allowed constructing gust prediction intervals without requiring an ensemble. From an operational perspective, providing gust forecasts with quantified uncertainty enhances stakeholders' confidence in risk assessment and response planning for extreme gust events.

She goes zooming across the screen instantly as the air blasts the table forward as well as any jet engine. "Table go vroom-vroom" reads the caption--just a small taste of what an inventive player can do in The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom, the latest in the series from Nintendo. Echoes of Wisdom is all about finding new ways to use the world's items. It relies on Zelda's ability to copy enemies and objects and repurpose them as needed. In the early days of its creation, developers explored different ways the game could be played.

This paper evaluates and compares the performance of model-free and model-based reinforcement learning for the attitude control of fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles using PID as a reference point. The comparison focuses on their ability to handle varying flight dynamics and wind disturbances in a simulated environment. Our results show that the Temporal Difference Model Predictive Control agent outperforms both the PID controller and other model-free reinforcement learning methods in terms of tracking accuracy and robustness over different reference difficulties, particularly in nonlinear flight regimes. Furthermore, we introduce actuation fluctuation as a key metric to assess energy efficiency and actuator wear, and we test two different approaches from the literature: action variation penalty and conditioning for action policy smoothness. We also evaluate all control methods when subject to stochastic turbulence and gusts separately, so as to measure their effects on tracking performance, observe their limitations and outline their implications on the Markov decision process formalism.

Real-time detection and prediction of extreme weather protect human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods rely on numerical threshold setting and manual interpretation of weather heatmaps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can be slow and error-prone. Our research redefines Extreme Weather Events Detection (EWED) by framing it as a Visual Question Answering (VQA) problem, thereby introducing a more precise and automated solution. Leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLM) to simultaneously process visual and textual data, we offer an effective aid to enhance the analysis process of weather heatmaps. Our initial assessment of general-purpose VLMs (e.g., GPT-4-Vision) on EWED revealed poor performance, characterized by low accuracy and frequent hallucinations due to inadequate color differentiation and insufficient meteorological knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce ClimateIQA, the first meteorological VQA dataset, which includes 8,760 wind gust heatmaps and 254,040 question-answer pairs covering four question types, both generated from the latest climate reanalysis data. We also propose Sparse Position and Outline Tracking (SPOT), an innovative technique that leverages OpenCV and K-Means clustering to capture and depict color contours in heatmaps, providing ClimateIQA with more accurate color spatial location information. Finally, we present Climate-Zoo, the first meteorological VLM collection, which adapts VLMs to meteorological applications using the ClimateIQA dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that models from Climate-Zoo substantially outperform state-of-the-art general VLMs, achieving an accuracy increase from 0% to over 90% in EWED verification. The datasets and models in this study are publicly available for future climate science research: https://github.com/AlexJJJChen/Climate-Zoo.

Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic predictions at a lower cost compared to numerical simulations. Wind represents a particularly challenging variable to model due to its high spatial and temporal variability. This paper presents a novel approach that integrates Gaussian processes (GPs) and neural networks to model surface wind gusts, leveraging multiple data sources, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, digital elevation models (DEM), and in-situ measurements. Results demonstrate the added value of modeling the multivariate covariance structure of the variable of interest, as opposed to only applying a univariate probabilistic regression approach. Modeling the covariance enables the optimal integration of observed measurements from ground stations, which is shown to reduce the continuous ranked probability score compared to the baseline. Moreover, it allows the direct generation of realistic fields that are also marginally calibrated, aided by scalable techniques such as Random Fourier Features (RFF) and pathwise conditioning. We discuss the effect of different modeling choices, as well as different degrees of approximation, and present our results for a case study.

This paper addresses the problem of developing an algorithm for autonomous ship landing of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), using only a monocular camera in the UAV for tracking and localization. Ship landing is a challenging task due to the small landing space, six degrees of freedom ship deck motion, limited visual references for localization, and adversarial environmental conditions such as wind gusts. We first develop a computer vision algorithm which estimates the relative position of the UAV with respect to a horizon reference bar on the landing platform using the image stream from a monocular vision camera on the UAV. Our approach is motivated by the actual ship landing procedure followed by the Navy helicopter pilots in tracking the horizon reference bar as a visual cue. We then develop a robust reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for controlling the UAV towards the landing platform even in the presence of adversarial environmental conditions such as wind gusts. We demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithm compared to a benchmark nonlinear PID control approach, both in the simulation experiments using the Gazebo environment and in the real-world setting using a Parrot ANAFI quad-rotor and sub-scale ship platform undergoing 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) deck motion.

We explore the reinforcement learning approach to designing controllers by extensively discussing the case of a quadcopter attitude controller. We provide all details allowing to reproduce our approach, starting with a model of the dynamics of a crazyflie 2.0 under various nominal and non-nominal conditions, including partial motor failures and wind gusts. We develop a robust form of a signal temporal logic to quantitatively evaluate the vehicle's behavior and measure the performance of controllers. The paper thoroughly describes the choices in training algorithms, neural net architecture, hyperparameters, observation space in view of the different performance metrics we have introduced. We discuss the robustness of the obtained controllers, both to partial loss of power for one rotor and to wind gusts and finish by drawing conclusions on practical controller design by reinforcement learning.