wendland
Generalized Kernel Thinning
The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in $100$ dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.
Kernel Thinning
We introduce kernel thinning, a simple algorithm for generating better-than-Monte-Carlo approximations to distributions $\mathbb{P}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Given $n$ input points, a suitable reproducing kernel $\mathbf{k}$, and $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ time, kernel thinning returns $\sqrt{n}$ points with comparable integration error for every function in the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space. With high probability, the maximum discrepancy in integration error is $\mathcal{O}_d(n^{-\frac{1}{2}}\sqrt{\log n})$ for compactly supported $\mathbb{P}$ and $\mathcal{O}_d(n^{-\frac{1}{2}} \sqrt{(\log n)^{d+1}\log\log n})$ for sub-exponential $\mathbb{P}$. In contrast, an equal-sized i.i.d. sample from $\mathbb{P}$ suffers $\Omega(n^{-\frac14})$ integration error. Our sub-exponential guarantees resemble the classical quasi-Monte Carlo error rates for uniform $\mathbb{P}$ on $[0,1]^d$ but apply to general distributions on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and a wide range of common kernels. We use our results to derive explicit non-asymptotic maximum mean discrepancy bounds for Gaussian, Mat\'ern, and B-spline kernels and present two vignettes illustrating the practical benefits of kernel thinning over i.i.d. sampling and standard Markov chain Monte Carlo thinning.
Expo Real 2018: AI and the Future of CRE
Artificial intelligence has been a hot subject in real estate for a few years now and while some remain uncomfortable with the fast-growing trend, others are already saving time and money by using such technologies in their businesses. While AI has its challenges, the potential gains for the industry far outweigh them. In one of the opening panels of 2018's Expo Real, the yearly international real estate and investment conference taking place in München, Bastian Schulz, head of sales at Leverton; Sascha Donner, co-founder & head of product at startup Evana; Matthew Webster, CFO of Cloudscraper; and Nicolai Wendland, COO of 21st Real Estate, shared their vision on how AI could shape the industry. The highest goal for real estate professionals using AI seems to be the simplification of the acquisition process, at a larger scale. "There is no bigger vision than imagining the process of purchasing one property with one click, like we do with shares. We will be there soon, in a few years," Wendland said.
Consistent Kernel Mean Estimation for Functions of Random Variables
Simon-Gabriel, Carl-Johann, Ścibior, Adam, Tolstikhin, Ilya, Schölkopf, Bernhard
We provide a theoretical foundation for non-parametric estimation of functions of random variables using kernel mean embeddings. We show that for any continuous function $f$, consistent estimators of the mean embedding of a random variable $X$ lead to consistent estimators of the mean embedding of $f(X)$. For Mat\'ern kernels and sufficiently smooth functions we also provide rates of convergence. Our results extend to functions of multiple random variables. If the variables are dependent, we require an estimator of the mean embedding of their joint distribution as a starting point; if they are independent, it is sufficient to have separate estimators of the mean embeddings of their marginal distributions. In either case, our results cover both mean embeddings based on i.i.d. samples as well as "reduced set" expansions in terms of dependent expansion points. The latter serves as a justification for using such expansions to limit memory resources when applying the approach as a basis for probabilistic programming.