With the increasing reliance on AI models for weather forecasting, it is imperative to evaluate their vulnerability to adversarial perturbations. This work introduces Weather Adaptive Adversarial Perturbation Optimization (W AAPO), a novel framework for generating targeted adversarial perturbations that are both effective in manipulating forecasts and stealthy to avoid detection. W AAPO achieves this by incorporating constraints for channel sparsity, spatial localization, and smoothness, ensuring that perturbations remain physically realistic and imperceptible. Using the ERA5 dataset and FourCastNet (Pathak et al. 2022), we demonstrate W AAPO's ability to generate adversarial trajectories that align closely with predefined targets, even under constrained conditions. Our experiments highlight critical vulnerabilities in AI-driven forecasting models, where small perturbations to initial conditions can result in significant deviations in predicted weather patterns. These findings underscore the need for robust safeguards to protect against adversarial exploitation in operational forecasting systems. The code for W AAPO is available at: https://github.com/Huzaifa-Arif/W

Understanding the robustness of a weather forecasting model with respect to input noise or different uncertainties is important in assessing its output reliability, particularly for extreme weather events like hurricanes. In this paper, we test sensitivity and robustness of an artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model: NVIDIAs FourCastNetv2 (FCNv2). We conduct two experiments designed to assess model output under different levels of injected noise in the models initial condition. First, we perturb the initial condition of Hurricane Florence from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset (September 13-16, 2018) with varying amounts of Gaussian noise and examine the impact on predicted trajectories and forecasted storm intensity. Second, we start FCNv2 with fully random initial conditions and observe how the model responds to nonsensical inputs. Our results indicate that FCNv2 accurately preserves hurricane features under low to moderate noise injection. Even under high levels of noise, the model maintains the general storm trajectory and structure, although positional accuracy begins to degrade. FCNv2 consistently underestimates storm intensity and persistence across all levels of injected noise. With full random initial conditions, the model generates smooth and cohesive forecasts after a few timesteps, implying the models tendency towards stable, smoothed outputs. Our approach is simple and portable to other data-driven AI weather forecasting models.

Deep learning-based weather forecasting models have recently demonstrated significant performance improvements over gold-standard physics-based simulation tools. However, these models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, which raises concerns about their trustworthiness. In this paper, we first investigate the feasibility of applying existing adversarial attack methods to weather forecasting models. We argue that a successful attack should (1) not modify significantly its original inputs, (2) be faithful, i.e., achieve the desired forecast at targeted locations with minimal changes to non-targeted locations, and (3) be geospatio-temporally realistic. However, balancing these criteria is a challenge as existing methods are not designed to preserve the geospatio-temporal dependencies of the original samples. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework called FABLE (Forecast Alteration By Localized targeted advErsarial attack), which employs a 3D discrete wavelet decomposition to extract the varying components of the geospatio-temporal data. By regulating the magnitude of adversarial perturbations across different components, FABLE can generate adversarial inputs that maintain geospatio-temporal coherence while remaining faithful and closely aligned with the original inputs. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework over baseline methods across various metrics.

AfriClimate AI is a grassroots community focused on leveraging artificial intelligence to tackle climate challenges in Africa. We spoke to Amal Nammouchi, one of the co-founders of AfriClimate AI, about the inspiration behind the initiative, some of their activities and projects, and plans for the future. Everything started last year at the Deep Learning Indaba in Ghana. The Deep Learning Indaba is the largest African AI community gathering and it happens once a year. The spark for AfriClimate AI came from a workshop with the work of one of our co-founders Rendani Mbuvha.

The number of people living in urban areas has tripled in the last 50 years, meaning when a major natural disaster such as an earthquake strikes a city, more lives are in danger. Meanwhile, the strength and frequency of extreme weather events has increased--a trend set to continue as the climate warms. That is spurring efforts around the world to develop a new generation of earthquake monitoring and climate forecasting systems to make detecting and responding to disasters quicker, cheaper, and more accurate than ever. On Nov. 6, at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center in Spain, the Global Initiative on Resilience to Natural Hazards through AI Solutions will meet for the first time. The new United Nations initiative aims to guide governments, organizations, and communities in using AI for disaster management.

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the strong links between weather and climate modelling, this raises the question whether machine learning models could also revolutionize climate science, for example by informing mitigation and adaptation to climate change or to generate larger ensembles for more robust uncertainty estimates. Here, we show that current state-of-the-art machine learning models trained for weather forecasting in present-day climate produce skillful forecasts across different climate states corresponding to pre-industrial, present-day, and future 2.9K warmer climates. This indicates that the dynamics shaping the weather on short timescales may not differ fundamentally in a changing climate. It also demonstrates out-of-distribution generalization capabilities of the machine learning models that are a critical prerequisite for climate applications. Nonetheless, two of the models show a global-mean cold bias in the forecasts for the future warmer climate state, i.e. they drift towards the colder present-day climate they have been trained for. A similar result is obtained for the pre-industrial case where two out of three models show a warming. We discuss possible remedies for these biases and analyze their spatial distribution, revealing complex warming and cooling patterns that are partly related to missing ocean-sea ice and land surface information in the training data. Despite these current limitations, our results suggest that data-driven machine learning models will provide powerful tools for climate science and transform established approaches by complementing conventional physics-based models.

Machine learning (ML) models have become increasingly valuable in weather forecasting, providing forecasts that not only lower computational costs but often match or exceed the accuracy of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite their potential, ML models typically suffer from limitations such as coarse temporal resolution, typically 6 hours, and a limited set of meteorological variables, limiting their practical applicability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FuXi-2.0, an advanced ML model that delivers 1-hourly global weather forecasts and includes a comprehensive set of essential meteorological variables, thereby expanding its utility across various sectors like wind and solar energy, aviation, and marine shipping. Our study conducts comparative analyses between ML-based 1-hourly forecasts and those from the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for various practical scenarios. The results demonstrate that FuXi-2.0 consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in forecasting key meteorological variables relevant to these sectors. In particular, FuXi-2.0 shows superior performance in wind power forecasting compared to ECMWF HRES, further validating its efficacy as a reliable tool for scenarios demanding precise weather forecasts. Additionally, FuXi-2.0 also integrates both atmospheric and oceanic components, representing a significant step forward in the development of coupled atmospheric-ocean models. Further comparative analyses reveal that FuXi-2.0 provides more accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity than its predecessor, FuXi-1.0, suggesting that there are benefits of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model over atmosphere-only models.

Operational weather forecasting models have advanced for decades on both the explicit numerical solvers and the empirical physical parameterization schemes. However, the involved high computational costs and uncertainties in these existing schemes are requiring potential improvements through alternative machine learning methods. Previous works use a unified model to learn the dynamics and physics of the atmospheric model. Contrarily, we propose a simple yet effective machine learning model that learns the horizontal movement in the dynamical core and vertical movement in the physical parameterization separately. By replacing the advection with a graph attention network and the convection with a multi-layer perceptron, our model provides a new and efficient perspective to simulate the transition of variables in atmospheric models. We also assess the model's performance over a 5-day iterative forecasting. Under the same input variables and training methods, our model outperforms existing data-driven methods with a significantly-reduced number of parameters with a resolution of 5.625 deg. Overall, this work aims to contribute to the ongoing efforts that leverage machine learning techniques for improving both the accuracy and efficiency of global weather forecasting.

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global weather at 1-degree resolution for 4 weeks of lead time. For predictions of 2-meter temperature, our ensemble on average outperforms the raw ECMWF extended-range ensemble by 4-17%, depending on the lead time. However, after applying statistical bias corrections, the ECMWF ensemble is about 3% better at 4 weeks. For other surface parameters, our ensemble is also within a few percentage points of ECMWF's ensemble. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve near-state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts using a multi-model ensembling approach with data-driven weather prediction models.

Weather forecasting is a crucial yet highly challenging task. With the maturity of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the emergence of data-driven weather forecasting models has opened up a new paradigm for the development of weather forecasting systems. Despite the significant successes that have been achieved (e.g., surpassing advanced traditional physical models for global medium-range forecasting), existing data-driven weather forecasting models still rely on the analysis fields generated by the traditional assimilation and forecasting system, which hampers the significance of data-driven weather forecasting models regarding both computational cost and forecasting accuracy. In this work, we explore the possibility of coupling the data-driven weather forecasting model with data assimilation by integrating the global AI weather forecasting model, FengWu, with one of the most popular assimilation algorithms, Four-Dimensional Variational (4DVar) assimilation, and develop an AI-based cyclic weather forecasting system, FengWu-4DVar. FengWu-4DVar can incorporate observational data into the data-driven weather forecasting model and consider the temporal evolution of atmospheric dynamics to obtain accurate analysis fields for making predictions in a cycling manner without the help of physical models. Owning to the auto-differentiation ability of deep learning models, FengWu-4DVar eliminates the need of developing the cumbersome adjoint model, which is usually required in the traditional implementation of the 4DVar algorithm. Experiments on the simulated observational dataset demonstrate that FengWu-4DVar is capable of generating reasonable analysis fields for making accurate and efficient iterative predictions.