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The limits of interpretability in multiple linear regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Interpreting machine-learning models has attracted increasing attention, particularly in the physical sciences, where one often seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms rather than merely make predictions. Multiple linear regression is often regarded as an interpretable alternative to more complex models, such as deep neural networks, because its predictions are expressed as explicit weighted sums of input features. However, when input features are strongly correlated, namely in the presence of multicollinearity, the learned weights can exhibit large dataset-to-dataset fluctuations and oscillatory behavior across physically similar features, making their interpretation difficult or even impossible. Although the instability of the weights under multicollinearity is well known in statistics, its consequences for physical interpretation, in particular its connection to oscillatory weights across physically similar features, have not been systematically clarified. Here, we theoretically discuss the mechanism behind this loss of interpretability by analyzing the eigenmodes of the feature correlation matrix. We show that small-eigenvalue modes associated with multicollinearity amplify fluctuations in the weights and generate oscillatory patterns that do not necessarily reflect meaningful contributions. We test this theoretical picture numerically on physics datasets and show that Ridge regularization suppresses these unstable modes, although the resulting weights must still be interpreted with caution. We further confirm the generality of our findings beyond physics by analyzing a diverse collection of publicly available datasets. Our results clarify why, in the presence of multicollinearity, physical interpretation can remain difficult even for linear regression models.



Checklist 1. For all authors (a)

Neural Information Processing Systems

We first consider process samples by logistic regression with cluster centers as categorical variables . Intuitively, non-orthonormal centers correlate with each other, which means there is an overlap among categorical variables and makes it hard to identify the decision boundary that leads to a failed classification.


A Versatile Influence Function for Data Attribution with Non-Decomposable Loss

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Influence function, a technique rooted in robust statistics, has been adapted in modern machine learning for a novel application: data attribution -- quantifying how individual training data points affect a model's predictions. However, the common derivation of influence functions in the data attribution literature is limited to loss functions that can be decomposed into a sum of individual data point losses, with the most prominent examples known as M-estimators. This restricts the application of influence functions to more complex learning objectives, which we refer to as non-decomposable losses, such as contrastive or ranking losses, where a unit loss term depends on multiple data points and cannot be decomposed further. In this work, we bridge this gap by revisiting the general formulation of influence function from robust statistics, which extends beyond M-estimators. Based on this formulation, we propose a novel method, the Versatile Influence Function (VIF), that can be straightforwardly applied to machine learning models trained with any non-decomposable loss. In comparison to the classical approach in statistics, the proposed VIF is designed to fully leverage the power of auto-differentiation, hereby eliminating the need for case-specific derivations of each loss function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VIF across three examples: Cox regression for survival analysis, node embedding for network analysis, and listwise learning-to-rank for information retrieval. In all cases, the influence estimated by VIF closely resembles the results obtained by brute-force leave-one-out retraining, while being up to $10^3$ times faster to compute. We believe VIF represents a significant advancement in data attribution, enabling efficient influence-function-based attribution across a wide range of machine learning paradigms, with broad potential for practical use cases.


VIFS: An End-to-End Variational Inference for Foley Sound Synthesis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of DCASE 2023 Challenge Task 7 is to generate various sound clips for Foley sound synthesis (FSS) by "category-to-sound" approach. "Category" is expressed by a single index while corresponding "sound" covers diverse and different sound examples. To generate diverse sounds for a given category, we adopt VITS, a text-to-speech (TTS) model with variational inference. In addition, we apply various techniques from speech synthesis including PhaseAug and Avocodo. Different from TTS models which generate short pronunciation from phonemes and speaker identity, the category-to-sound problem requires generating diverse sounds just from a category index. To compensate for the difference while maintaining consistency within each audio clip, we heavily modified the prior encoder to enhance consistency with posterior latent variables. This introduced additional Gaussian on the prior encoder which promotes variance within the category. With these modifications, we propose VIFS, variational inference for end-to-end Foley sound synthesis, which generates diverse high-quality sounds.


Towards Effective and Robust Neural Trojan Defenses via Input Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trojan attacks on deep neural networks are both dangerous and surreptitious. Over the past few years, Trojan attacks have advanced from using only a single input-agnostic trigger and targeting only one class to using multiple, input-specific triggers and targeting multiple classes. However, Trojan defenses have not caught up with this development. Most defense methods still make inadequate assumptions about Trojan triggers and target classes, thus, can be easily circumvented by modern Trojan attacks. To deal with this problem, we propose two novel "filtering" defenses called Variational Input Filtering (VIF) and Adversarial Input Filtering (AIF) which leverage lossy data compression and adversarial learning respectively to effectively purify potential Trojan triggers in the input at run time without making assumptions about the number of triggers/target classes or the input dependence property of triggers. In addition, we introduce a new defense mechanism called "Filtering-then-Contrasting" (FtC) which helps avoid the drop in classification accuracy on clean data caused by "filtering", and combine it with VIF/AIF to derive new defenses of this kind. Extensive experimental results and ablation studies show that our proposed defenses significantly outperform well-known baseline defenses in mitigating five advanced Trojan attacks including two recent state-of-the-art while being quite robust to small amounts of training data and large-norm triggers.


Testing for context-dependent changes in neural encoding in naturalistic experiments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a decoding-based approach to detect context effects on neural codes in longitudinal neural recording data. The approach is agnostic to how information is encoded in neural activity, and can control for a variety of possible confounding factors present in the data. We demonstrate our approach by determining whether it is possible to decode location encoding from prefrontal cortex in the mouse and, further, testing whether the encoding changes due to task engagement.


You have created your first Linear Regression Model. Have you validated the assumptions?

@machinelearnbot

With the dawn of the age of Data Science, there is an increased interest in learning and applying algorithms, not just by business analysts or data scientists, but by several other professionals whose core job may not be crunching data or building models. Good sign, indeed, if one understands the when, why and how of applying these fantastic techniques. If your scatterplot shows curvilinear relationship, keep in mind that higher order polynomials (2 or above) may do a better job at modelling the data. Compare models, statistics and decide for yourself which model best explains your data. For validity of a LR model, the VIF (Variance Inflationary Factor) should not be too high. How high is too high?