When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $τ(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $τ(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.

Feedforward network (FFN) layers account for a large fraction of parameters and nonlinear expressivity in Transformer-based large language models (LLMs). Despite the evolution from ReLU and GELU to gated variants such as SwiGLU, most FFN designs still use a single fixed activation function, applying the same nonlinear transformation to all tokens. In this work, we propose Mixture of Activations (MoA), a token-adaptive FFN design that mixes a dictionary of activation functions using lightweight input-dependent gates while sharing the same linear projections. As an input-independent counterpart, we also introduce learnable activations (LA), which form linear combinations of activation functions for both ReLU-type and SwiGLU-type FFNs. Theoretically, we establish strict finite-width expressive separations among fixed-activation FFNs, LA, and MoA: LA strictly contains fixed-activation FFNs, while MoA strictly contains LA, with the additional expressivity arising from input-dependent nonlinear hybridization. Empirically, we evaluate MoA through extensive pre-training experiments on dense and MoE language models ranging from 0.12B to 2B parameters under different token budgets, optimizers, and learning rate schedules. MoA consistently achieves lower terminal loss and exhibits more favorable scaling behavior than well-tuned baselines, with minimal parameter and computational overhead. These results suggest that token-adaptive activation mixing is a simple and effective mechanism for improving FFN expressivity in LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are prone to hallucinations, i.e., statements unsupported by the input or training data, hindering reliable deployment. In parallel, numerous uncertainty estimation (UE) methods have been proposed to quantify model confidence and are often implicitly treated as proxies for model failure. However, the relationship between uncertainty and hallucinations remains insufficiently characterized. We present a systematic empirical study of the association between uncertainty estimators and hallucinations in LLMs. Rather than assuming this association, we evaluate directly when and to what extent it holds. We consider a diverse set of uncertainty estimators, including information-theoretic, sampling-based, and reflexive estimators, and examine their behavior across hallucination settings. Our experiments cover both intrinsic hallucinations (violations of input faithfulness) and extrinsic hallucinations (unsupported claims relative to training data), using four complementary benchmarks, including RAGTruth and HalluLens. We find that the association is highly variable and often weak, depending on the hallucination type and the LLM under evaluation. These results challenge the use of uncertainty as a direct signal of hallucination and clarify when it provides actionable information.

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

We audit alignment-induced shifts in residual-stream activations of three open-weight instruction-tuned LLMs (Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, Gemma-2-9B-it, Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct) using the effective rank of the alignment modification matrix on safety-relevant inputs, rho_eps := rank_eps(M_Ds)/d, which formalizes the single-refusal-direction observation of Arditi et al. (2024) as a continuous quantity. The paper has three contributions. (1) Confound-controlled measurement: a four-variant decomposition (M_naive, M_template, M_aligned, M_DiD) separates chat-template formatting, alignment-stage shift, and the refusal-mediating direction, and recovers the Arditi refusal direction on M_DiD at |cos| in {0.77, 0.86, 0.50} (Llama/Gemma/Qwen); chat-template-controlled rho_eps is {0.0029, 0.0048, 0.0044}, and the centered SVD residual is 4-7x larger. (2) Constructive calibration on a 3-layer MLP across rho_eps in {0.008, 0.17, 0.33, 0.40} exhibits a sweet-spot vs. brittle distinction: mild rank-maximization (lambda=5) buys ablation robustness, while strong regularization at the same nominal rho_eps (lambda=50) does not. rho_eps is a diagnostic for fragility, not a target whose mechanical inflation buys robustness. (3) Limits of rank-based diagnostics: (a) not safety-specific (LRH baseline is 2-3x the safety value); (b) SVD principal ordering does not match causal ordering (Llama u_2 inert despite ranking second; cumulative ablation non-monotone at k=5); (c) the spectral-gap hypothesis required to upgrade the O(rho_eps * d) achievability bound to a matching Mirsky-route lower bound fails empirically (1/90 Llama layer-reference pairs, 0/36 MLP combinations) and structurally (kappa_lb <= 2/(eps * r)). The matching lower bound remains an open problem.

Preprocessing screening is often the most expensive part of a near-infrared spectroscopy calibration workflow. It works because smoothing, derivatives, detrending and related filters change the spectral directions seen by PLS or Ridge regression, but a full external search repeatedly refits nearly the same linear model. This paper studies the case where that search can be collapsed into one calibration step. For strict linear preprocessing operators, the transformed PLS cross-covariance satisfies (X A^T)^T Y = A X^T Y, and Ridge regression depends on the operator-induced kernel X A^T A X^T. These identities allow a finite operator bank to be screened inside the model while retaining original-wavelength coefficients. Sample-adaptive or fitted corrections such as SNV, MSC, EMSC and ASLS remain fold-local branches, not absorbed into the algebra. The study uses the AOM benchmark cohort: 61 regression rows and 17 classification rows in the manifest. On the main regression denominator (N=32), plain compact-bank AOM-PLS records median RMSEP ratios of 0.991 against PLS-default and 0.990 against PLS-HPO; the selected ASLS-AOM-compact-cv5 branch records 0.985 and 1.002 on the same two references. The plain AOMRidge-global-compact-none baseline records 0.974 against Ridge-default and 0.984 against Ridge-HPO, while the selected AOMRidge-Blender-headline-spxy3 records 0.918 and 0.966. The selected classifier, AOM-PLS-DA-global-simpls-covariance, improves balanced accuracy by 0.159 on N=13 datasets with 12/13 wins. The runtime gap is the practical result: PLS-HPO takes a median total time of 710.81 s per run, whereas the selected AOM-PLS branch takes 1.63 s. Linear operator-adaptive calibration therefore gives comparable prediction quality to exhaustive preprocessing screening, with orders-of-magnitude less fitting time for PLS.

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

Orthogonal parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) adapts pretrained weights through structure-preserving multiplicative transformations, but existing methods often conflate two distinct design choices: the subspace in which adaptation occurs and the transformation applied within that subspace. This paper introduces LOFT, a low-rank orthogonal fine-tuning framework that explicitly separates these two components. By viewing orthogonal adaptation as a multiplicative subspace rotation, LOFT provides a unified formulation that recovers representative orthogonal PEFT methods, including coordinate-, butterfly-, Householder-, and principal-subspace-based variants. More importantly, this perspective exposes support selection as a central design axis rather than a byproduct of a particular parameterization. We develop a first-order analysis showing that useful adaptation supports should be informed by the downstream training signal, motivating practical task-aware support selection strategies. Across language understanding, visual transfer, mathematical reasoning, and multilingual out-of-distribution adaptation, LOFT recovers principal-subspace orthogonal adaptation while gradient-informed supports improve the efficiency-performance trade-off under matched parameter, memory, and compute budgets. These results suggest that principled support selection is an important direction for improving orthogonal PEFT.

Muon and its variants have shown strong empirical performance in a variety of deep learning tasks. Existing convergence analyses of Muon rely on smoothness assumptions, though arguably the most successful function class for developing deep learning methods (such as AdaGrad, Shampoo, Schedule-Free and more) has been the class of convex and Lipschitz functions. In this paper we question whether the classical convex Lipschitz model is a useful one for understanding Muon. Our answer is no. We show that Muon does not converge on the class of convex and Lipschitz functions, regardless of the choice of learning rate schedule. We also show that error feedback restores convergence of Muon and all the non-Euclidean subgradient methods with momentum. However, this theoretical fix using error feedback degrades the performance of Muon in two representative settings for image classification (CIFAR-10) and language modeling (nanoGPT on FineWeb-Edu 10B). Our conclusion is that convex Lipschitz theory, despite having a prominent role in the design of practical methods for deep learning, is not the most suited one for Muon. This suggests that Muon's success must come from structure absent from this model, most plausibly related to smoothness.

We derive a Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm for the quadratic dual problem arising from $\varepsilon$-SVR~\cite{Vapnik1995, Drucker1997, Smola2004} modified to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)~\cite{Makridakis1993, Hyndman2006} directly in the loss function~\cite{benavides2025support}. This formulation is part of a broader family of SVR models with percentage-error losses that also includes least-squares variants~\cite{Suykens2002} and symmetric-kernel extensions~\cite{Espinoza2005}, whose unified structure is studied in~\cite{benavides2026unified}. The key structural difference from standard $\varepsilon$-SVR is that the box constraints become \emph{sample-dependent}: $α_k, α_k^* \in [0,\, 100C/y_k]$. We show that this modification affects only (i) the feasibility sets $\Iup$ and $\Idown$ in the working-set selection and (ii) the clipping bounds in the analytic two-variable update, while leaving the curvature formula and gradient update structurally identical to the standard SMO~\cite{Platt1998, Platt1999, Fan2005}. A shrinking heuristic adapted to the sample-dependent bounds is derived and shown to introduce an asymmetry between $α$- and $α^*$-variables controlled by the gap $2y_k\varepsilon/100$. The same solver applies to the symmetric-kernel variant (m2) by replacing $Ω$ with $Ω_s = \tfrac{1}{2}(Ω+ aΩ^*)$~\cite{Espinoza2005}. Numerical validation against an interior-point QP reference solver confirms solution agreement to within solver termination tolerance across ten synthetic configurations spanning both kernel variants and symmetry types. An implementation is available in the open-source \texttt{psvr} R package~\cite{BenavidesHerrera2026Rpsvr}.