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 variance estimation




Unified Unbiased Variance Estimation for MMD: Robust Finite-Sample Performance with Imbalanced Data and Exact Acceleration under Null and Alternative Hypotheses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based nonparametric statistic for two-sample testing, whose inferential accuracy depends critically on variance characterization. Existing work provides various finite-sample estimators of the MMD variance, often differing under the null and alternative hypotheses and across balanced or imbalanced sampling schemes. In this paper, we study the variance of the MMD statistic through its U-statistic representation and Hoeffding decomposition, and establish a unified finite-sample characterization covering different hypotheses and sample configurations. Building on this analysis, we propose an exact acceleration method for the univariate case under the Laplacian kernel, which reduces the overall computational complexity from $\mathcal O(n^2)$ to $\mathcal O(n \log n)$.




Jackknife Variance Estimation for Hájek-Dominated Generalized U-Statistics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We prove ratio-consistency of the jackknife variance estimator, and certain variants, for a broad class of generalized U-statistics whose variance is asymptotically dominated by their Hájek projection, with the classical fixed-order case recovered as a special instance. This Hájek projection dominance condition unifies and generalizes several criteria in the existing literature, placing the simple nonparametric jackknife on the same footing as the infinitesimal jackknife in the generalized setting. As an illustration, we apply our result to the two-scale distributional nearest-neighbor regression estimator, obtaining consistent variance estimates under substantially weaker conditions than previously required.


Variance estimation in compound decision theory under boundedness

Neural Information Processing Systems

The normal means model is often studied under the assumption of a known variance. However, ignorance of the variance is a frequent issue in applications and basic theoretical questions still remain open in this setting. This article establishes that the sharp minimax rate of variance estimation in square error is (\frac{\log\log n}{\log n}) 2 under arguably the most mild assumption imposed for identifiability: bounded means. The rate-optimal estimator proposed in this article achieves the optimal rate by estimating O\left(\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}\right) cumulants and leveraging a variational representation of the noise variance in terms of the cumulants of the data distribution. The minimax lower bound involves a moment matching construction.


Confidence Interval Construction and Conditional Variance Estimation with Dense ReLU Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper addresses the problems of conditional variance estimation and confidence interval construction in nonparametric regression using dense networks with the Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function. We present a residual-based framework for conditional variance estimation, deriving nonasymptotic bounds for variance estimation under both heteroscedastic and homoscedastic settings. We relax the sub-Gaussian noise assumption, allowing the proposed bounds to accommodate sub-Exponential noise and beyond. Building on this, for a ReLU neural network estimator, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for both its conditional mean and variance estimation, representing the first result for variance estimation using ReLU networks. Furthermore, we develop a ReLU network based robust bootstrap procedure (Efron, 1992) for constructing confidence intervals for the true mean that comes with a theoretical guarantee on the coverage, providing a significant advancement in uncertainty quantification and the construction of reliable confidence intervals in deep learning settings.


Generalized Gaussian Temporal Difference Error For Uncertainty-aware Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.


Activation Compression of Graph Neural Networks using Block-wise Quantization with Improved Variance Minimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Efficient training of large-scale graph neural networks (GNNs) has been studied with a specific focus on reducing their memory consumption. Work by Liu et al. (2022) proposed extreme activation compression (EXACT) which demonstrated drastic reduction in memory consumption by performing quantization of the intermediate activation maps down to using INT2 precision. They showed little to no reduction in performance while achieving large reductions in GPU memory consumption. In this work, we present an improvement to the EXACT strategy by using block-wise quantization of the intermediate activation maps. We experimentally analyze different block sizes and show further reduction in memory consumption (>15%), and runtime speedup per epoch (about 5%) even when performing extreme extents of quantization with similar performance trade-offs as with the original EXACT. Further, we present a correction to the assumptions on the distribution of intermediate activation maps in EXACT (assumed to be uniform) and show improved variance estimations of the quantization and dequantization steps.