This paper studies how to integrate historical control data with experimental data to enhance A/B testing, while addressing the distributional shift between historical and experimental datasets. We propose a pessimistic data integration method that combines two causal effect estimators constructed based on experimental and historical datasets. Our main idea is to conceptualize the weight function for this combination as a policy so that existing pessimistic policy learning algorithms are applicable to learn the optimal weight that minimizes the resulting weighted estimator's mean squared error. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses to compare our method against various baseline estimators across five scenarios. Both our theoretical and numerical findings demonstrate that the proposed estimator achieves near-optimal performance across all scenarios.

We consider the problem of estimating the correlation of two random variables X and Y, where the pairs (X, Y) are not observed together, but are instead separated co-ordinate-wise at two servers: server 1 contains all the X observations, and server 2 contains the corresponding Y observations. In this vertically distributed setting, we assume that each server has its own privacy constraints, owing to which they can only share suitably privatized statistics of their own component observations. We consider differing privacy budgets (ε1, δ1) and (ε2, δ2) for the two servers and determine the minimax optimal rates for correlation estimation allowing for both noninteractive and interactive mechanisms. We also provide correlation estimators that achieve these rates and further develop inference procedures, namely, confidence intervals, for the estimated correlations. Our results are characterized by an interesting rate in terms of the sample size n, ε1, ε2, which is strictly slower than the usual central privacy estimation rates. More interestingly, we find that the interactive mechanism is always better than its non-interactive counterpart whenever the two privacy budgets are different. Results from extensive numerical experiments support our theoretical findings.

In this work, we first empirically demonstrate the instability and suboptimal performance of existing popular MU methods when deployed in different scenarios. To address this issue, we propose Dual Optimizer (DualOptim), which incorporates adaptive learning rate and decoupled momentum factors. Empirical and theoretical evidence demonstrates that DualOptim contributes to effective and stable unlearning. Through extensive experiments, we show that DualOptim can significantly boost MU efficacy and stability across diverse tasks, including image classification, image generation, and large language models, making it a versatile approach to empower existing MU algorithms.

Layer Normalization (LayerNorm) is one of the fundamental components in transformers that stabilizes training and improves optimization. In recent times, PreLayerNorm transformers have become the preferred choice over Post-LayerNorm transformers due to their stable gradient flow. However, the impact of LayerNorm on learning and memorization across these architectures remains unclear. In this work, we investigate how LayerNorm influences memorization and learning for Preand Post-LayerNorm transformers. We identify that LayerNorm serves as a key factor for stable learning in Pre-LayerNorm transformers, while in Post-LayerNorm transformers, it impacts memorization. Our analysis reveals that eliminating LayerNorm parameters in Pre-LayerNorm models exacerbates memorization and destabilizes learning, while in Post-LayerNorm models, it effectively mitigates memorization by restoring genuine labels. We further precisely identify that early layers LayerNorm are the most critical over middle/later layers and their influence varies across Pre and Post LayerNorm models. We have validated it through 13 models across 6 Vision and Language datasets. These insights shed new light on the role of LayerNorm in shaping memorization and learning in transformers2.

We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with unobserved confounding. Recent advances have introduced bridge-function to circumvent unmeasured confounding and develop estimators for the policy value, yet the statistical error bounds of them related to the length of horizon T and the size of the state-action space |O||A| remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we systematically investigate the finite-sample error bounds of OPE estimators in finite-horizon tabular confounded POMDPs. Specifically, we show that under certain rank conditions, the estimation error for policy value can achieve a rate of O(T1.5/ n), excluding the cardinality of the observation space |O| and the action space |A|. With an additional mild condition on the concentrability coefficients in confounded POMDPs, the rate of estimation error can be improved to O(T/ n).

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged--rather than directly assigned--via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV--an Adaptive, Multiply-Robust estimator for Instrumental-Variable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function-based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

Recent advancements in reasoning capability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate its effectiveness in tackling complex visual tasks. However, existing MLLM-based Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) methods remain limited to shallow anomaly descriptions without deep reasoning. In this paper, we propose a new task named Video Anomaly Reasoning (VAR), which aims to enable deep analysis and understanding of anomalies in the video by requiring MLLMs to think explicitly before answering. To this end, we propose Vad-R1, an end-to-end MLLM-based framework for VAR. Specifically, we design a Perception-to-Cognition Chain-of-Thought (P2C-CoT) that simulates the human process of recognizing anomalies, guiding the MLLMs to reason about anomalies step-by-step. Based on the structured P2C-CoT, we construct Vad-Reasoning, a dedicated dataset for VAR. Furthermore, we propose an improved reinforcement learning algorithm AVA-GRPO, which explicitly incentivizes the anomaly reasoning capability of MLLMs through a self-verification mechanism with limited annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that Vad-R1 achieves superior performance, outperforming both open-source and proprietary models on VAD and VAR tasks.

Public service programs often allocate limited resources under uncertainty about their benefits, creating a need for randomization to support credible evaluation. In practice, however, applicants commonly enter waitlists where resources are prioritized toward individuals judged to have higher need through tiered priority queues, making direct randomization difficult. Motivated by this, we develop an experimental design framework for learning treatment effects while treating those most in need where incoming applicants are randomized into priority queues based on their assessed risk scores. Treatments are then provided across queues in priority order and first-in-first-out within queue as budget becomes available. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we characterize what causal effects are identified under this priority-queue allocation. When arrivals are exogenous, treatments are conditionally randomized, and hence standard estimands are identified; when arrivals are endogenous, queue randomization instead provides an instrument for treatment, identifying local treatment effects induced by the queuing process. Second, we develop optimized queue-assignment designs that trade off statistical efficiency against prioritizing higher-need applicants. We show in the process that, despite dependence in treatment assignments induced by the design, usual iid efficiency bounds remain well-justified design objectives. We illustrate the proposed designs using data from a housing allocation program in a large U.S. county.

We study change-point detection for high-dimensional data in regimes where inference must be performed from small batches of observations. Our primary focus is the high-dimensional, low sample size (HDLSS) regime, where the sequence length is fixed while the ambient dimension diverges. We propose a dimension-averaged angular kernel scan framework for detecting marginal distributional shifts. The statistic aggregates bounded one-dimensional angular discrepancies across coordinates, yielding a fully nonparametric, hyperparameter-free, and moment-agnostic estimator that remains well-defined without specifying, estimating, or assuming finite marginal moments, for example under heavy-tailed or contaminated distributions. For the offline single-change problem, we derive an exact population mean factorization into a universal deterministic shape function and a scalar signal factor, characterize the null covariance structure up to a scalar long-run variance factor, and establish an HDLSS multivariate central limit theorem under cross-coordinate mixing. These results lead to plug-in Gaussian calibration, asymptotic type-I error control, and power and localization guarantees, including a $d^{-1/2}$ local detection scale. We further extend the offline procedure to a fixed-window sequential monitoring procedure for high-dimensional streaming data, and obtain ARL calibration and worst-case EDD bounds. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately detect and localize changes in challenging HDLSS and streaming settings where moment-based or hyperparameter-sensitive procedures may be unreliable.

No feature ranking can be simultaneously faithful, stable, and complete when features are collinear. For collinear pairs, ranking reduces to a coin flip. We prove this impossibility, quantify it for four model classes, resolve it via ensemble averaging (DASH), and machine-verify it with 305 Lean 4 theorems. We characterize the complete attribution design space: exactly two families of methods exist -- faithful-complete methods (unstable, with rankings that flip up to 50% of the time) and ensemble methods like DASH (stable, reporting ties for symmetric features) -- and no method lies outside this dichotomy. The impossibility is quantitative: the attribution ratio diverges as 1/(1-rho^2) for gradient boosting, is infinite for Lasso, and converges for random forests. DASH (Diversified Aggregation of SHAP) is provably Pareto-optimal among unbiased aggregations, achieving the Cramer-Rao variance bound with a tight ensemble size formula. In a survey of 77 public datasets, 68% exhibit attribution instability. Switching to conditional SHAP does not escape the impossibility when features have equal causal effects. The framework includes practical diagnostics -- a Z-test workflow and single-model screening tool -- and has direct consequences for fairness auditing: SHAP-based proxy discrimination audits are provably unreliable under collinearity. The design space theorem, diagnostics, and impossibility are mechanically verified in Lean 4 (305 theorems from 16 axioms, 0 sorry) -- to our knowledge, the first formally verified impossibility in explainable AI.