People overthink; language models over-sample, and the extra effort can talk both into a worse answer. Reasoning systems answer a hard question by sampling it many times (test-time scaling), and the more they draw, the more often a correct answer turns up somewhere, so coverage, the fraction of problems with at least one correct try, climbs and appears to be progress. But a deployed system must return one answer, and choosing it, not knowing which try is right, is selection; selection is capped, and past a point extra samples only make the model surer of a confident mistake, even as every draw adds cost. The gap between climbing coverage and stalled selection, the identifiability gap, is the answer a model can produce but not pick. So the real question is not whether to sample but how far, and the answer is: not far. For picking an answer, the vote has already settled within a few dozen draws, the modal ceiling; for scoring a benchmark, sooner still, the correlation ceiling. Beyond that, extra draws cost compute and add nothing, and can even make the answer worse. This paper turns the cutoff into a single number, the effective number of samples, that any sampling run already reveals. The bottleneck is recognizing a right answer, not generating one.

Structure-agnostic (SA) models introduced by Balakrishnan et al. (2026) aim to reflect the general lack of knowledge of structural assumptions on data-generating laws such as smoothness or sparsity in practice. Roughly speaking, SA models restrict the observed-data generating law to be in some rn-neighborhood of (black-box machine learning) estimates, treated as given and fixed, where rn encodes the convergence rates of the estimates to the truth. Under SA models, Balakrishnan et al. (2026) show that the popular Double Machine Learning (DML) estimators for three functionals, the quadratic functional in the Gaussian sequence model, the quadratic density integral functional and the expected conditional covariance, are minimax. However, minimax estimators may be inadmissible. In this paper, we show that, for the first two of the three functionals, the DML estimator is asymptotically inadmissible under the SA model. In particular, we show that these two functionals fall into a class of functionals, which we refer to as the monotone bias class. For this class, we exhibit second-order (U-statistic) estimators, which asymptotically dominate DML estimators, under the SA model. These second-order estimators are empirical higher-order influence function (HOIF) estimators introduced in Liu et al. (2017). Furthermore, the empirical HOIF estimator, like the DML estimator, is minimax for the third functional (the expected conditional covariance), although neither asymptotically dominates the other.

This paper studies how to integrate historical control data with experimental data to enhance A/B testing, while addressing the distributional shift between historical and experimental datasets. We propose a pessimistic data integration method that combines two causal effect estimators constructed based on experimental and historical datasets. Our main idea is to conceptualize the weight function for this combination as a policy so that existing pessimistic policy learning algorithms are applicable to learn the optimal weight that minimizes the resulting weighted estimator's mean squared error. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses to compare our method against various baseline estimators across five scenarios. Both our theoretical and numerical findings demonstrate that the proposed estimator achieves near-optimal performance across all scenarios.

We consider the problem of estimating the correlation of two random variables X and Y, where the pairs (X, Y) are not observed together, but are instead separated co-ordinate-wise at two servers: server 1 contains all the X observations, and server 2 contains the corresponding Y observations. In this vertically distributed setting, we assume that each server has its own privacy constraints, owing to which they can only share suitably privatized statistics of their own component observations. We consider differing privacy budgets (ε1, δ1) and (ε2, δ2) for the two servers and determine the minimax optimal rates for correlation estimation allowing for both noninteractive and interactive mechanisms. We also provide correlation estimators that achieve these rates and further develop inference procedures, namely, confidence intervals, for the estimated correlations. Our results are characterized by an interesting rate in terms of the sample size n, ε1, ε2, which is strictly slower than the usual central privacy estimation rates. More interestingly, we find that the interactive mechanism is always better than its non-interactive counterpart whenever the two privacy budgets are different. Results from extensive numerical experiments support our theoretical findings.

In this work, we first empirically demonstrate the instability and suboptimal performance of existing popular MU methods when deployed in different scenarios. To address this issue, we propose Dual Optimizer (DualOptim), which incorporates adaptive learning rate and decoupled momentum factors. Empirical and theoretical evidence demonstrates that DualOptim contributes to effective and stable unlearning. Through extensive experiments, we show that DualOptim can significantly boost MU efficacy and stability across diverse tasks, including image classification, image generation, and large language models, making it a versatile approach to empower existing MU algorithms.

Layer Normalization (LayerNorm) is one of the fundamental components in transformers that stabilizes training and improves optimization. In recent times, PreLayerNorm transformers have become the preferred choice over Post-LayerNorm transformers due to their stable gradient flow. However, the impact of LayerNorm on learning and memorization across these architectures remains unclear. In this work, we investigate how LayerNorm influences memorization and learning for Preand Post-LayerNorm transformers. We identify that LayerNorm serves as a key factor for stable learning in Pre-LayerNorm transformers, while in Post-LayerNorm transformers, it impacts memorization. Our analysis reveals that eliminating LayerNorm parameters in Pre-LayerNorm models exacerbates memorization and destabilizes learning, while in Post-LayerNorm models, it effectively mitigates memorization by restoring genuine labels. We further precisely identify that early layers LayerNorm are the most critical over middle/later layers and their influence varies across Pre and Post LayerNorm models. We have validated it through 13 models across 6 Vision and Language datasets. These insights shed new light on the role of LayerNorm in shaping memorization and learning in transformers2.

We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with unobserved confounding. Recent advances have introduced bridge-function to circumvent unmeasured confounding and develop estimators for the policy value, yet the statistical error bounds of them related to the length of horizon T and the size of the state-action space |O||A| remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we systematically investigate the finite-sample error bounds of OPE estimators in finite-horizon tabular confounded POMDPs. Specifically, we show that under certain rank conditions, the estimation error for policy value can achieve a rate of O(T1.5/ n), excluding the cardinality of the observation space |O| and the action space |A|. With an additional mild condition on the concentrability coefficients in confounded POMDPs, the rate of estimation error can be improved to O(T/ n).

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged--rather than directly assigned--via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV--an Adaptive, Multiply-Robust estimator for Instrumental-Variable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function-based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

Recent advancements in reasoning capability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate its effectiveness in tackling complex visual tasks. However, existing MLLM-based Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) methods remain limited to shallow anomaly descriptions without deep reasoning. In this paper, we propose a new task named Video Anomaly Reasoning (VAR), which aims to enable deep analysis and understanding of anomalies in the video by requiring MLLMs to think explicitly before answering. To this end, we propose Vad-R1, an end-to-end MLLM-based framework for VAR. Specifically, we design a Perception-to-Cognition Chain-of-Thought (P2C-CoT) that simulates the human process of recognizing anomalies, guiding the MLLMs to reason about anomalies step-by-step. Based on the structured P2C-CoT, we construct Vad-Reasoning, a dedicated dataset for VAR. Furthermore, we propose an improved reinforcement learning algorithm AVA-GRPO, which explicitly incentivizes the anomaly reasoning capability of MLLMs through a self-verification mechanism with limited annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that Vad-R1 achieves superior performance, outperforming both open-source and proprietary models on VAD and VAR tasks.

Public service programs often allocate limited resources under uncertainty about their benefits, creating a need for randomization to support credible evaluation. In practice, however, applicants commonly enter waitlists where resources are prioritized toward individuals judged to have higher need through tiered priority queues, making direct randomization difficult. Motivated by this, we develop an experimental design framework for learning treatment effects while treating those most in need where incoming applicants are randomized into priority queues based on their assessed risk scores. Treatments are then provided across queues in priority order and first-in-first-out within queue as budget becomes available. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we characterize what causal effects are identified under this priority-queue allocation. When arrivals are exogenous, treatments are conditionally randomized, and hence standard estimands are identified; when arrivals are endogenous, queue randomization instead provides an instrument for treatment, identifying local treatment effects induced by the queuing process. Second, we develop optimized queue-assignment designs that trade off statistical efficiency against prioritizing higher-need applicants. We show in the process that, despite dependence in treatment assignments induced by the design, usual iid efficiency bounds remain well-justified design objectives. We illustrate the proposed designs using data from a housing allocation program in a large U.S. county.