Differentially private (DP) machine learning often relies on the availability of public data for tasks like privacy-utility trade-off estimation, hyperparameter tuning, and pretraining. While public data assumptions may be reasonable in text and image data, they are less likely to hold for tabular data due to tabular data heterogeneity across domains. We propose leveraging powerful priors to address this limitation; specifically, we synthesize realistic tabular data directly from schemalevel specifications - such as variable names, types, and permissible ranges - without ever accessing sensitive records. To that end, this work introduces the notion of "surrogate" public data - datasets generated independently of sensitive data, which consume no privacy loss budget and are constructed solely from publicly available schema or metadata. Surrogate public data are intended to encode plausible statistical assumptions (informed by publicly available information) into a dataset with many downstream uses in private mechanisms. We automate the process of generating surrogate public data with large language models (LLMs); in particular, we propose two methods: direct record generation as CSV files, and automated structural causal model (SCM) construction for sampling records. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that surrogate public tabular data can effectively replace traditional public data when pretraining differentially private tabular classifiers. To a lesser extent, surrogate public data are also useful for hyperparameter tuning of DP synthetic data generators, and for estimating the privacy-utility tradeoff.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

The theory of optimal transportation has developed into a powerful and elegant framework for comparing probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in all areas of science. The fundamental idea of analyzing probabilities by comparing their underlying state space naturally aligns with the core idea of causal inference, where understanding and quantifying counterfactual states is paramount. Despite this intuitive connection, explicit research at the intersection of optimal transport and causal inference is only beginning to develop. Yet, many foundational models in causal inference have implicitly relied on optimal transport principles for decades, without recognizing the underlying connection. Therefore, the goal of this review is to offer an introduction to the surprisingly deep existing connections between optimal transport and the identification of causal effects with observational data -- where optimal transport is not just a set of potential tools, but actually builds the foundation of model assumptions. As a result, this review is intended to unify the language and notation between different areas of statistics, mathematics, and econometrics, by pointing out these existing connections, and to explore novel problems and directions for future work in both areas derived from this realization.

Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Networks are widely employed in time-series forecasting tasks, demonstrating effectiveness in univariate and certain multivariate scenarios. However, their inherent structure does not readily accommodate the integration of future, time-dependent covariates. A proposed solution, outlined by Salinas et al 2019, suggests forecasting both covariates and the target variable in a multivariate framework. In this study, we conducted comprehensive tests on publicly available time-series datasets, artificially introducing highly correlated covariates to future time-step values. Our evaluation aimed to assess the performance of an LSTM network when considering these covariates and compare it against a univariate baseline. As part of this study we introduce a novel approach using seasonal time segments in combination with an RNN architecture, which is both simple and extremely effective over long forecast horizons with comparable performance to many state of the art architectures. Our findings from the results of more than 120 models reveal that under certain conditions jointly training covariates with target variables can improve overall performance of the model, but often there exists a significant performance disparity between multivariate and univariate predictions. Surprisingly, even when provided with covariates informing the network about future target values, multivariate predictions exhibited inferior performance. In essence, compelling the network to predict multiple values can prove detrimental to model performance, even in the presence of informative covariates. These results suggest that LSTM architectures may not be suitable for forecasting tasks where predicting covariates would typically be expected to enhance model accuracy.

This article combines wavelet analysis techniques with machine learning methods for univariate time series forecasting, focusing on three main contributions. Firstly, we consider the use of Daubechies wavelets with different numbers of vanishing moments as input features to both non-temporal and temporal forecasting methods, by selecting these numbers during the cross-validation phase. Secondly, we compare the use of both the non-decimated wavelet transform and the non-decimated wavelet packet transform for computing these features, the latter providing a much larger set of potentially useful coefficient vectors. The wavelet coefficients are computed using a shifted version of the typical pyramidal algorithm to ensure no leakage of future information into these inputs. Thirdly, we evaluate the use of these wavelet features on a significantly wider set of forecasting methods than previous studies, including both temporal and non-temporal models, and both statistical and deep learning-based methods. The latter include state-of-the-art transformer-based neural network architectures. Our experiments suggest significant benefit in replacing higher-order lagged features with wavelet features across all examined non-temporal methods for one-step-forward forecasting, and modest benefit when used as inputs for temporal deep learning-based models for long-horizon forecasting.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 or the COVID-19 pandemic has swept almost all parts of the world since the first case was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. With the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the world, SARS-CoV-2 has mutated into various variants. Given the increasingly dangerous conditions of the pandemic, it is crucial to know when the pandemic will stop by predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19. Therefore, many studies have raised COVID-19 as a case study to overcome the ongoing pandemic using the Deep Learning method, namely LSTM, with reasonably accurate results and small error values. LSTM training is used to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 based on variants that have been identified using ECDC's COVID-19 dataset containing confirmed cases of COVID-19 that have been identified from 30 countries in Europe. Tests were conducted using the LSTM and BiLSTM models with the addition of RNN as comparisons on hidden size and layer size. The obtained result showed that in testing hidden sizes 25, 50, 75 to 100, the RNN model provided better results, with the minimum MSE value of 0.01 and the RMSE value of 0.012 for B.1.427/B.1.429 variant with hidden size 100. In further testing of layer sizes 2, 3, 4, and 5, the result shows that the BiLSTM model provided better results, with minimum MSE value of 0.01 and the RMSE of 0.01 for the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant with hidden size 100 and layer size 2.

Anomaly detection research works generally propose algorithms or end-to-end systems that are designed to automatically discover outliers in a dataset or a stream. While literature abounds concerning algorithms or the definition of metrics for better evaluation, the quality of the ground truth against which they are evaluated is seldom questioned. In this paper, we present a systematic analysis of available public (and additionally our private) ground truth for anomaly detection in the context of network environments, where data is intrinsically temporal, multivariate and, in particular, exhibits spatial properties, which, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to explore. Our analysis reveals that, while anomalies are, by definition, temporally rare events, their spatial characterization clearly shows some type of anomalies are significantly more popular than others. We find that simple clustering can reduce the need for human labeling by a factor of 2x-10x, that we are first to quantitatively analyze in the wild.

Tuning hyper-parameters for evolutionary algorithms is an important issue in computational intelligence. Performance of an evolutionary algorithm depends not only on its operation strategy design, but also on its hyper-parameters. Hyper-parameters can be categorized in two dimensions as structural/numerical and time-invariant/time-variant. Particularly, structural hyper-parameters in existing studies are usually tuned in advance for time-invariant parameters, or with hand-crafted scheduling for time-invariant parameters. In this paper, we make the first attempt to model the tuning of structural hyper-parameters as a reinforcement learning problem, and present to tune the structural hyper-parameter which controls computational resource allocation in the CEC 2018 winner algorithm by Q-learning. Experimental results show favorably against the winner algorithm on the CEC 2018 test functions.

Frequency-specific patterns of neural activity are traditionally interpreted as sustained rhythmic oscillations, and related to cognitive mechanisms such as attention, high level visual processing or motor control. While alpha waves (8-12 Hz) are known to closely resemble short sinusoids, and thus are revealed by Fourier analysis or wavelet transforms, there is an evolving debate that electromagnetic neural signals are composed of more complex waveforms that cannot be analyzed by linear filters and traditional signal representations. In this paper, we propose to learn dedicated representations of such recordings using a multivariate convolutional sparse coding (CSC) algorithm. Applied to electroencephalography (EEG) or magnetoencephalography (MEG) data, this method is able to learn not only prototypical temporal waveforms, but also associated spatial patterns so their origin can be localized in the brain. Our algorithm is based on alternated minimization and a greedy coordinate descent solver that leads to state-of-the-art running time on long time series. To demonstrate the implications of this method, we apply it to MEG data and show that it is able to recover biological artifacts. More remarkably, our approach also reveals the presence of non-sinusoidal mu-shaped patterns, along with their topographic maps related to the somatosensory cortex.

A/B testing is widely used for online marketing, management of Internet ads or any other usual analytics. In general, people use it in order to look for "golden features (metrics)" that are vital points for growth hacking. To validate A/B testing, statistical hypothesis tests such as t-test are used and people are trying to find any metric with a significant effect across conditions. If you successfully find a metric with a significant difference between design A and B of a click button, you'll get happy. Such a metric can provide a rule-based predictor for KGI / KPI: for example, a landing page with a button A increases conversion rate by 2%.