tsc
Benchmarking on Tasks That Matter: Dataset Selection for Preserving Model Rankings
Gusev, Rostislav, Zaytsev, Alexey
Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.
DiffLight: A Partial Rewards Conditioned Diffusion Model for Traffic Signal Control with Missing Data
The application of reinforcement learning in traffic signal control (TSC) has been extensively researched and yielded notable achievements. However, most existing works for TSC assume that traffic data from all surrounding intersections is fully and continuously available through sensors. In real-world applications, this assumption often fails due to sensor malfunctions or data loss, making TSC with missing data a critical challenge. To meet the needs of practical applications, we introduce DiffLight, a novel conditional diffusion model for TSC under data-missing scenarios in the offline setting. Specifically, we integrate two essential sub-tasks, i.e., traffic data imputation and decision-making, by leveraging a Partial Rewards Conditioned Diffusion (PRCD) model to prevent missing rewards from interfering with the learning process. Meanwhile, to effectively capture the spatial-temporal dependencies among intersections, we design a Spatial-Temporal transFormer (STFormer) architecture. In addition, we propose a Diffusion Communication Mechanism (DCM) to promote better communication and control performance under data-missing scenarios. Extensive experiments on five datasets with various data-missing scenarios demonstrate that DiffLight is an effective controller to address TSC with missing data.
Targeted Synthetic Control Method
Wang, Yuxin, Frauen, Dennis, Javurek, Emil, Hess, Konstantin, Ma, Yuchen, Feuerriegel, Stefan
The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual estimates. Across extensive synthetic and real-world experiments, TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.
Dynamic Sparse Network for Time Series Classification: Learning What to "See"
The receptive field (RF), which determines the region of time series to be "seen" and used, is critical to improve the performance for time series classification (TSC). However, the variation of signal scales across and within time series data, makes it challenging to decide on proper RF sizes for TSC. In this paper, we propose a dynamic sparse network (DSN) with sparse connections for TSC, which can learn to cover various RF without cumbersome hyper-parameters tuning. The kernels in each sparse layer are sparse and can be explored under the constraint regions by dynamic sparse training, which makes it possible to reduce the resource cost. The experimental results show that the proposed DSN model can achieve state-of-art performance on both univariate and multivariate TSC datasets with less than 50% computational cost compared with recent baseline methods, opening the path towards more accurate resource-aware methods for time series analyses.
Context-aware, Ante-hoc Explanations of Driving Behaviour
Grundt, Dominik, Saxena, Ishan, Petersen, Malte, Westphal, Bernd, Mรถhlmann, Eike
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) must be both safe and trustworthy to gain social acceptance and become a viable option for everyday public transportation. Explanations about the system behaviour can increase safety and trust in AVs. Unfortunately, explaining the system behaviour of AI-based driving functions is particularly challenging, as decision-making processes are often opaque. The field of Explainability Engineering tackles this challenge by developing explanation models at design time. These models are designed from system design artefacts and stakeholder needs to develop correct and good explanations. To support this field, we propose an approach that enables context-aware, ante-hoc explanations of (un)expectable driving manoeuvres at runtime. The visual yet formal language Traffic Sequence Charts is used to formalise explanation contexts, as well as corresponding (un)expectable driving manoeuvres. A dedicated runtime monitoring enables context-recognition and ante-hoc presentation of explanations at runtime. In combination, we aim to support the bridging of correct and good explanations. Our method is demonstrated in a simulated overtaking.
Evaluating Simplification Algorithms for Interpretability of Time Series Classification
Hรฅvardstun, Brigt, Marti-Perez, Felix, Ferri, Cรจsar, Telle, Jan Arne
In this work, we introduce metrics to evaluate the use of simplified time series in the context of interpretability of a TSC -- a Time Series Classifier. Such simplifications are important because time series data, in contrast to text and image data, are not intuitively under- standable to humans. These metrics are related to the complexity of the simplifications -- how many segments they contain -- and to their loyalty -- how likely they are to maintain the classification of the original time series. We focus on simplifications that select a subset of the original data points, and show that these typically have high Shapley value, thereby aiding interpretability. We employ these metrics to experimentally evaluate four distinct simplification algorithms, across several TSC algorithms and across datasets of varying characteristics, from seasonal or stationary to short or long. We subsequently perform a human-grounded evaluation with forward simulation, that confirms also the practical utility of the introduced metrics to evaluate the use of simplifications in the context of interpretability of TSC. Our findings are summarized in a framework for deciding, for a given TSC, if the various simplifications are likely to aid in its interpretability.