Decision-makers frequently must choose a single action from a finite set of alternatives -- for example, physicians selecting a treatment, investors choosing a portfolio risk level, or judges determining sentences. To improve outcomes, policymakers often issue policy rules or guidelines to inform such choices. In this paper, I show how to generally derive policy rules from observational data in a multi-action framework under relatively weak assumptions about the underlying structure of the heterogeneous sampled population. Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are consistently estimated via a weighted K-means algorithm, assuming the outcome model is correctly specified within each homogeneous subgroup. Feasible policy rules are then implemented via a standard decision tree, allowing for both perfect and imperfect adherence to treatment. The methodology is applied to treatment options for Hepatitis C (HCV) among patients co-infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), a setting in which no uniform guideline exists for modern pharmaceutical therapies. The results identify a subgroup of patients with approximately an 80% probability of spontaneous HCV clearance without treatment. Estimation results also show that reallocating treatments among treated individuals could have reduced total treatment costs by CAN$3.6-4.9 million while still increasing aggregate health benefits relative to the status quo. These findings demonstrate that the proposed approach can generate improved, data-driven treatment guidelines for the management of HIV/HCV co-infected patients.

We introduce a multimodal deep learning framework, Prescriptive Neural Networks (PNNs), that combines ideas from optimization and machine learning, and is, to the best of our knowledge, the first prescriptive method to handle multimodal data. The PNN is a feedforward neural network trained on embeddings to output an outcome-optimizing prescription. In two real-world multimodal datasets, we demonstrate that PNNs prescribe treatments that are able to significantly improve estimated outcomes in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures by reducing estimated postoperative complication rates by 32% and in liver trauma injuries by reducing estimated mortality rates by over 40%. In four real-world, unimodal tabular datasets, we demonstrate that PNNs outperform or perform comparably to other well-known, state-of-the-art prescriptive models; importantly, on tabular datasets, we also recover interpretability through knowledge distillation, fitting interpretable Optimal Classification Tree models onto the PNN prescriptions as classification targets, which is critical for many real-world applications. Finally, we demonstrate that our multimodal PNN models achieve stability across randomized data splits comparable to other prescriptive methods and produce realistic prescriptions across the different datasets.

The updated recommendations on diagnostic procedures and treatment pathways for a medical condition are documented as graphical flows in Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs). For effective use of the CPGs in helping medical professionals in the treatment decision process, it is necessary to fully capture the guideline knowledge, particularly the contexts and their relationships in the graph. While several existing works have utilized these guidelines to create rule bases for Clinical Decision Support Systems, limited work has been done toward directly capturing the full medical knowledge contained in CPGs. This work proposes an approach to create a contextually enriched, faithful digital representation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) Cancer CPGs in the form of graphs using automated extraction and node & relationship classification. We also implement semantic enrichment of the model by using Large Language Models (LLMs) for node classification, achieving an accuracy of 80.86% and 88.47% with zero-shot learning and few-shot learning, respectively. Additionally, we introduce a methodology for answering natural language questions with constraints to guideline text by leveraging LLMs to extract the relevant subgraph from the guideline knowledge base. By generating natural language answers based on subgraph paths and semantic information, we mitigate the risk of incorrect answers and hallucination associated with LLMs, ensuring factual accuracy in medical domain Question Answering.

At the beginning of 2024, the American Cancer Society predicted that 2,001,140 new cancer cases and 611,720 cancer deaths would occur in the United States. Now, as the year draws to a close, experts are looking back and reflecting on the discoveries and advances that have been made in the field of cancer treatment and prevention. Fox News Digital spoke with four oncologists from the Sarah Cannon Research Institute in Nashville, Tennessee, about the most notable accomplishments of 2024 and what they see on the horizon for 2025. See the answers and questions below. Krish Patel, M.D., is director of lymphoma research at Sarah Cannon Research Institute in Nashville, Tennessee.

Clinical decision making (CDM) is a complex, dynamic process crucial to healthcare delivery, yet it remains a significant challenge for artificial intelligence systems. While Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have been tested on general medical knowledge using licensing exams and knowledge question-answering tasks, their performance in the CDM in real-world scenarios is limited due to the lack of comprehensive testing datasets that mirror actual medical practice. To address this gap, we present MedChain, a dataset of 12,163 clinical cases that covers five key stages of clinical workflow. MedChain distinguishes itself from existing benchmarks with three key features of real-world clinical practice: personalization, interactivity, and sequentiality. Further, to tackle real-world CDM challenges, we also propose MedChain-Agent, an AI system that integrates a feedback mechanism and a MCase-RAG module to learn from previous cases and adapt its responses. MedChain-Agent demonstrates remarkable adaptability in gathering information dynamically and handling sequential clinical tasks, significantly outperforming existing approaches. The relevant dataset and code will be released upon acceptance of this paper.

The burden of diseases is rising worldwide, with unequal treatment efficacy for patient populations that are underrepresented in clinical trials. Healthcare, however, is driven by the average population effect of medical treatments and, therefore, operates in a "one-size-fits-all" approach, not necessarily what best fits each patient. These facts suggest a pressing need for methodologies to study individualized treatment effects (ITE) to drive personalized treatment. Despite the increased interest in machine-learning-driven ITE estimation models, the vast majority focus on tabular data with limited review and understanding of methodologies proposed for time-series electronic health records (EHRs). To this end, this work provides an overview of ITE works for time-series data and insights into future research. The work summarizes the latest work in the literature and reviews it in light of theoretical assumptions, types of treatment settings, and computational frameworks. Furthermore, this work discusses challenges and future research directions for ITEs in a time-series setting. We hope this work opens new directions and serves as a resource for understanding one of the exciting yet under-studied research areas.

Patients managing a complex illness such as cancer face a complex information challenge where they not only must learn about their illness but also how to manage it. Close interaction with healthcare experts (radiologists, oncologists) can improve patient learning and thereby, their disease outcome. However, this approach is resource intensive and takes expert time away from other critical tasks. Given the recent advancements in Generative AI models aimed at improving the healthcare system, our work investigates whether and how generative visual question answering systems can responsibly support patient information needs in the context of radiology imaging data. We conducted a formative need-finding study in which participants discussed chest computed tomography (CT) scans and associated radiology reports of a fictitious close relative with a cardiothoracic radiologist. Using thematic analysis of the conversation between participants and medical experts, we identified commonly occurring themes across interactions, including clarifying medical terminology, locating the problems mentioned in the report in the scanned image, understanding disease prognosis, discussing the next diagnostic steps, and comparing treatment options. Based on these themes, we evaluated two state-of-the-art generative visual language models against the radiologist's responses. Our results reveal variability in the quality of responses generated by the models across various themes. We highlight the importance of patient-facing generative AI systems to accommodate a diverse range of conversational themes, catering to the real-world informational needs of patients.

Dr. Marc Siegel discusses the pros and cons of using AI in health care and how it's too early to decide whether it's entirely reliable on on'Fox News Tonight.' For a small percentage of cancer patients, doctors are unable to determine where in the body the disease originated. To help pinpoint the origin of the cancers of unknown primary (CUP), researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have created an artificial intelligence model that analyzes the patient's genetic information -- and predicts where the tumor first appeared. When using the new AI model for 900 patients with cancers of unknown origin, researchers found that they could accurately classify at least 40% of tumors, according to a study published in Nature Medicine. WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)?

Social media platforms are vital resources for sharing self-reported health experiences, offering rich data on various health topics. Despite advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) enabling large-scale social media data analysis, a gap remains in applying keyphrase extraction to health-related content. Keyphrase extraction is used to identify salient concepts in social media discourse without being constrained by predefined entity classes. This paper introduces a theme-driven keyphrase extraction framework tailored for social media, a pioneering approach designed to capture clinically relevant keyphrases from user-generated health texts. Themes are defined as broad categories determined by the objectives of the extraction task. We formulate this novel task of theme-driven keyphrase extraction and demonstrate its potential for efficiently mining social media text for the use case of treatment for opioid use disorder. This paper leverages qualitative and quantitative analysis to demonstrate the feasibility of extracting actionable insights from social media data and efficiently extracting keyphrases using minimally supervised NLP models. Our contributions include the development of a novel data collection and curation framework for theme-driven keyphrase extraction and the creation of MOUD-Keyphrase, the first dataset of its kind comprising human-annotated keyphrases from a Reddit community. We also identify the scope of minimally supervised NLP models to extract keyphrases from social media data efficiently. Lastly, we found that a large language model (ChatGPT) outperforms unsupervised keyphrase extraction models, and we evaluate its efficacy in this task.

AstraZeneca's Dave Fredrickson discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic helped to bolster early cancer diagnosis from lung scans. Scientists have found that artificial intelligence could be an effective tool in predicting pancreatic cancer before a single symptom appears, according to a study published in the journal Nature Medicine on May 8. A team of researchers led by Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark and Harvard Medical School in Boston completed a sweeping study to determine whether AI could flag a person's risk of developing the disease. The results exceeded their expectations, with the model successfully predicting risk up to three years before diagnosis. In 2023, about 64,050 people in the U.S. will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and about 50,550 will die from the aggressive disease, the American Cancer Society (ACS) says.