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Deep Learning to Identify the Spatio-Temporal Cascading Effects of Train Delays in a High-Density Network

Nguyen, Vu Duc Anh, Li, Ziyue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The operational efficiency of railway networks, a cornerstone of modern economies, is persistently undermined by the cascading effects of train delays. Accurately forecasting this delay propagation is a critical challenge for real-time traffic management. While recent research has leveraged Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to model the network structure of railways, a significant gap remains in developing frameworks that provide multi-step autoregressive forecasts at a network-wide scale, while simultaneously offering the live, interpretable explanations needed for decision support. This paper addresses this gap by developing and evaluating a novel XGeoAI framework for live, explainable, multi-step train delay forecasting. The core of this work is a two-stage, autoregressive Graph Attention Network (GAT) model, trained on a real-world dataset covering over 40% of the Dutch railway network. The model represents the system as a spatio-temporal graph of operational events (arrivals and departures) and is enriched with granular features, including platform and station congestion. To test its viability for live deployment, the model is rigorously evaluated using a sequential, k-step-ahead forecasting protocol that simulates real-world conditions where prediction errors can compound. The results demonstrate that while the proposed GATv2 model is challenged on pure error metrics (MAE) by a simpler Persistence baseline, it achieves consistently higher precision in classifying delay events -- a crucial advantage for a reliable decision support tool.


Reinforcement Learning for Scalable Train Timetable Rescheduling with Graph Representation

Yue, Peng, Jin, Yaochu, Dai, Xuewu, Feng, Zhenhua, Cui, Dongliang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Train timetable rescheduling (TTR) aims to promptly restore the original operation of trains after unexpected disturbances or disruptions. Currently, this work is still done manually by train dispatchers, which is challenging to maintain performance under various problem instances. To mitigate this issue, this study proposes a reinforcement learning-based approach to TTR, which makes the following contributions compared to existing work. First, we design a simple directed graph to represent the TTR problem, enabling the automatic extraction of informative states through graph neural networks. Second, we reformulate the construction process of TTR's solution, not only decoupling the decision model from the problem size but also ensuring the generated scheme's feasibility. Third, we design a learning curriculum for our model to handle the scenarios with different levels of delay. Finally, a simple local search method is proposed to assist the learned decision model, which can significantly improve solution quality with little additional computation cost, further enhancing the practical value of our method. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The learned decision model can achieve better performance for various problems with varying degrees of train delay and different scales when compared to handcrafted rules and state-of-the-art solvers.


Minimizing Train Delays with Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Machine learning can improve rail travel both in the long and the short-term by minimizing train delays and ensuring high service quality. Train delays can be really frustrating and disruptive, especially if you frequently commute by train for work. In addition to the trains being late, the fact that most predictions You might end up feeling so annoyed, you're almost sure the railway operator has something personal against you. But the fact is, delayed trains affect millions of people all over the world, and there is very little operators can do to minimize such delays. This is because rail delays are caused by numerous factors that are interrelated, making it hard to assess the effects and devise solutions.


A Train Status Assistant for Indian Railways

Mishra, Himadri, Gaurav, Ramashish, Srivastava, Biplav

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trains are part-and-parcel of every day lives in countries with large, diverse, multi-lingual population like India. Consequently, an assistant which can accurately predict and explain train delays will help people and businesses alike. We present a novel conversation agent which can engage with people about train status and inform them about its delay at in-line stations. It is trained on past delay data from a subset of trains and generalizes to others.