traffic
PRCD-MAP: Learning How Much to Trust Imperfect Priors in Causal Discovery
External priors of unknown reliability create a brittle trade-off in causal discovery: blind trust amplifies errors, blind rejection wastes signal. Real priors are also heterogeneously reliable -- physical laws are trustworthy, LLM-suggested edges are speculative -- yet existing methods either ignore priors or impose them through globally uniform trust. We propose PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to an imperfect prior and uses it to modulate a prior-aware $\ell_1$ and prior-weighted $\ell_2$ regularizer in a MAP objective. Trust is calibrated by empirical Bayes on a Laplace-approximated marginal likelihood and propagated along the prior graph by an MLP, so data-confirmed neighborhoods boost trust and contradictions suppress it. PRCD-MAP enjoys a population-level safety guarantee: it is $\varepsilon$-safe in expectation over the prior-generation distribution, with $\varepsilon\leq C\cdot\mathrm{acc}(1{-}\mathrm{acc})\cdot d^2/T$ at the parametric $T^{-1}$ rate and vanishing at the prior-quality endpoints. When the prior is uninformative, learned trust provably collapses to its floor and the method recovers a no-prior baseline. Empirically, on real CausalTime data PRCD-MAP exploits informative LLM priors (LLM-prior gain $+0.067/+0.089$ AUROC on AQI/Medical over a no-prior PRCD-MAP backbone; combined backbone+prior lead $+0.123/+0.043$ over PCMCI+), auto-attenuates on the anonymous-variable Traffic stress test, and retains a lead at $d{=}300$; against BayesDAG, the closest soft-Bayesian baseline, PRCD-MAP wins on every CausalTime dataset under a matched $W_0$-only protocol. A four-way ablation isolates each component: EB calibration and MLP trust propagation jointly carry the plurality of the gain, with positive sign on every dataset. Extensions to nonlinear (NAM) and cross-sectional settings show the calibrated-trust principle is setting-agnostic.
Appendix
In this appendix, we first introduce the datasets and evaluation metrics used in the experiments in Section A. Then, we provide extra experimental results in Section B. In Section C, we present details of network design, training scheme, and hyper-parameter tuning. We conduct experiments on 11 popular time series datasets: (1) Electricity Transformer Temperature [42] (ETTh(1,2),ETTm1) 3consists of 2 year electric power data collected from two separated counties of China. Each data point includes an "oil temperature" value and 6 power load features. The data is aggregated into 5-minutes windows, resulting in 12 points per hour and 288 points per day. A.1 Electricity Transformer Temperature (ETT) For data pre-processing, we perform zero-mean normalization, i.e., X We use Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) [17] and Mean Squared Errors (MSE) [26] for model comparison.
Optimal Tagging with Markov Chain Optimization
Many information systems use tags and keywords to describe and annotate content. These allow for efficient organization and categorization of items, as well as facilitate relevant search queries. As such, the selected set of tags for an item can have a considerable effect on the volume of traffic that eventually reaches an item. In tagging systems where tags are exclusively chosen by an item's owner, who in turn is interested in maximizing traffic, a principled approach for assigning tags can prove valuable. In this paper we introduce the problem of optimal tagging, where the task is to choose a subset of tags for a new item such that the probability of browsing users reaching that item is maximized.
A Wave of Unexplained Bot Traffic Is Sweeping the Web
From small publishers to US federal agencies, websites are reporting unusual spikes in automated traffic linked to IP addresses in Lanzhou, China. For a brief moment in October, Alejandro Quintero thought he had made it big in China . The Bogotá-based data analyst owns and manages a website that publishes articles about paranormal activities, like ghosts and aliens. The content is written in "Spanglish," he says, and was never intended for an Asian audience. But last fall, Quintero's site suddenly began receiving a large volume of visits from China and Singapore.
A Supplementary Materials
A.1 Dataset Description We describe the additional details of each dataset in the followings. For electricity, we take 500k training windows between 2014-01-01 to 2014-09-01 by reference [14, 24]. And we use the first 90% for the training set and the last 10% as the validation set. Testing set is the next 7 days after the training set. We apply the z-score normalization to the real-valued inputs of each time series.